June Petrol Price Outlook: More South African Fuel Relief in Sight

Quick overview

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Global oil weakness and a stronger rand point to another fall in South Africa’s petrol prices in June, the fourth in a row.

Weaker Oil, Stronger Rand Shift the Equation

Global oil markets have experienced a notable pullback in recent weeks. Brent crude, which dropped below $60 climbed to $65, but has failed to sustain momentum and now trades below its May average of $66.40 per barrel, which points to a cut.

Similarly, US West Texas Intermediate ( WTI ) crude dipped to $55 before rebounding to the $60 level—still far from its earlier peaks. This downward trend has been driven by sluggish demand, geopolitical shifts, and uncertainty in global trade, including the impact of new US-imposed tariffs on commodities.

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Concurrently, the South African rand has gained substantial ground, appreciating by over 10% since mid-April. The USD/ZAR pair has dropped from above 20.00 to around 18.00, reflecting stronger domestic sentiment and easing inflation expectations.

🇿🇦 June Projections: South African Fuel Price Cuts

• Petrol 93 octane is forecast to drop by 40 to 57 cents per litre, providing welcome relief for urban and inland motorists.
• Petrol 95 octane could see a decrease between 40 and 56 cents per litre, especially benefiting coastal consumers.
• Diesel 0.05% (wholesale) prices are projected to fall by 75 to 94 cents per litre, aiding freight and agriculture sectors reliant on diesel.
• Diesel 0.005% (wholesale) is expected to ease by 74 to 90 cents per litre, adding further cost savings for logistics operators and public transport.
• Illuminating paraffin prices may drop by 76 to 89 cents per litre, offering some relief to low-income households using it for heating and cooking.

Fuel Prices Already in Decline, More Cuts Projected

These two forces—declining global oil prices and a rallying rand—are translating into direct benefits for South African consumers. Petrol prices have already seen three consecutive monthly cuts this year. According to the latest Central Energy Fund (CEF) data, there is potential for further reductions in June. Petrol prices are set to over-recover by nearly 30 cents per litre, with diesel expected to see even greater relief—potentially twice as much.

Caution as Oil Bounces, But Trend Still Favors Relief

While Brent briefly spiked to $66/barrel recently, it remains below average levels, keeping pressure on global energy markets. This, coupled with higher OPEC supply and the possibility of a breakthrough in the Russia-Ukraine peace talks, suggests continued softness in crude prices. Although a late-month oil rebound could dampen some of the gains, overall indicators remain supportive of a fourth consecutive month of fuel price reductions.

🇿🇦 South Africa Fuel Price Timeline – 2025 YTD

• Jan 1, 2025: Petrol prices kicked off the year at R21.34/litre, the lowest point in Q1, providing brief relief after 2024’s elevated levels.
• Feb 5, 2025: Prices ticked up to R22.16/litre, spurred by a weaker rand and rising global oil prices.
• Mar 5, 2025: A slight drop to R22.09/litre occurred, though tight global supply continued to limit any meaningful decline.
• Apr 2, 2025: Pump prices slipped to R21.51/litre, delivering modest relief, but still remained above early-year levels.
• May 7, 2025: Petrol dipped further to R21.29/litre, edging closer to January’s low, yet volatility in the oil market keeps the outlook uncertain.

Conclusion:

The projected mid-month price adjustments signal a broad-based fuel cost reprieve across all major categories. Declining global oil prices, coupled with rand stability, are driving these expected cuts. While the full benefit depends on final regulatory announcements, consumers and industries alike are set for meaningful short-term savings at the pumps.

By May. fuel prices in South Africa declined below January’s low again after the sudden jump back then. While the rand’s fluctuations and global crude dynamics continue to influence local pump prices, recent declines suggest short-term relief—though a sustained downtrend is yet to be seen.

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