Rand Resilient Regardless of ANC Lekgotla and US Flight Ban

USD/ZAR ANALYSIS

• Lekgotla constructive however not complete
• Biden imposes journey ban on South Africa

RAND FUNDAMENTAL BACKDROP

This weekend concerned a number of potential ZAR stimuli with concentrate on the ANC NEC lekgotla (authorities technique assembly). Final evening President Cyril Ramaphosa addressed the nation with regard to their dialogue factors as follows:

• Problems with inequality between males and girl in South Africa
• COVID-19 vaccine focus
• How COVID-19 accentuated a number of longstanding points throughout the nation
• South Africa’s position in contributing to international local weather change

The principle focus for markets and the native public alike was the COVID-19 vaccine rollout. Sadly, the President didn’t present any detailed info on the topic. Till such time as there may be extra readability on the inoculation program, South Africans will stay cautious concerning the vaccine.

Along with native information, President Joe Biden introduced {that a} journey ban will probably be executed on South Africa as an answer to the brand new COVID-19 variant pressure. With journey and tourism already at document lows in South Africa, this could not impression the Rand considerably which is obvious as we speak.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

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USD/ZAR DAILY CHART

Chart ready by Warren Venketas, IG

After Friday’s international hesitation on U.S. stimulus resulting from added COVID-19 restrictions, the Rand has recovered as we speak after a weekend of a number of detrimental bulletins. The medium-term downtrend (black line) could also be surpassed by a stronger downward development (dashed black line) which may recommend diminishing bullish momentum.

The Relative Power Index (RSI) stays across the midpoint 50 stage which signifies uncertainty when it comes to directional momentum nonetheless the general development stays firmly bearish. This fluctuation between short-term bullish and bearishness will probably proceed going ahead however it’s unbelievable that the medium-term downtrend will probably be altered except the worldwide financial setting takes a drastic flip.

USD/ZAR bulls might take a look at the short-term resistance trendline (dashed black line) as an preliminary goal, whereas the medium-term resistance trendline will function secondary resistance. The lengthy serving 15.0000 stage of confluence will stay as preliminary assist for bears whereas the medium-term outlook across the 14.5000 assist zone will keep in place going ahead. Value motion is predicted to wade by way of the 15.4865 and 14.5000 area for 2021 with value favorability closely depending on the U.S. stimulus final result.

USD/ZAR: KEY TECHNICAL POINTS TO CONSIDER

HIGH IMPACT U.S. DATA SCHEDULED TOMORROW

U.S. Client Confidence figures are in focus tomorrow (15:00GMT) which is predicted greater. That is constructive for the dollar ought to estimates are available in as forecasted nonetheless, any appreciable deviation from estimates may lead to notable value swings on USD/ZAR.

— Written by Warren Venketas for DailyFX.com

Contact and comply with Warren on Twitter: @WVenketas