US DOLLAR OUTLOOK: USD/CAD EYES RETAIL SALES, FOMC MINUTES, OIL PRICESUS Greenback value motion was pretty blended throughout Monday’s buying and
US DOLLAR OUTLOOK: USD/CAD EYES RETAIL SALES, FOMC MINUTES, OIL PRICES
US Greenback value motion was pretty blended throughout Monday’s buying and selling session. The Buck confronted heavy promoting stress versus the Yen, however this was offset by energy towards commodity currencies just like the Australian Greenback and Canadian Greenback. USD/CAD value motion ended up gaining 60-pips on the day, doubtless with the assistance from decrease crude oil costs. There’s a sturdy constructive correlation between CAD and oil. As such, the Canadian Greenback would possibly proceed buying and selling on its again foot as long as international development issues linger and crude oil stays beneath stress.
The US Greenback, in the meantime, remains to be looking for path as bulls and bears conflict over whether or not or not the Fed will begin tapering asset purchases this 12 months. This brings to focus catalysts with potential to sway the Fed taper timeline – such because the upcoming launch of month-to-month retail gross sales information. Although not as heavy-hitting as inflation or employment information, the retail gross sales report due Tuesday at 12:30 GMT does stand to gas some volatility. That is seeing how laborious financial information – like retail gross sales – stands to both reinforce or undermine the poor shopper sentiment report launched late final week.
USD/CAD PRICE CHART: DAILY TIME FRAME (24 MARCH TO 16 AUGUST 2021)
Chart by @RichDvorakFX created utilizing TradingView
That mentioned, better-than-expected retail gross sales information might hold stress on the Fed to start out tapering asset purchases earlier than year-end. Then again, disappointing retail gross sales figures is perhaps considered as a cause for FOMC officers to remain patiently accommodative given the resurgence of covid issues and draw back dangers confronted by the financial system. The previous situation would doubtless see US Greenback bulls make a push whereas the latter might correspond with broad US Greenback weak spot. However, from a technical perspective, USD/CAD value motion continues to oscillate between two conflicting trendlines.
Technical resistance highlighted by the short-term descending trendline, along with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement degree of the newest bearish leg, would possibly hold a lid on USD/CAD. Though, eclipsing the 27 July shut on the 1.2600-handle might clear the best way for US Greenback bulls to take purpose on the 19 July swing excessive earlier than year-to-date highs come again into focus. Upward stress on USD/CAD value motion is being exerted by the medium-term ascending trendline as increased lows kind. Nearside help appears formidable, which is underpinned by month-to-date lows along with the underside Bollinger Band and 50-day easy shifting common each perched barely beneath.
Maintain Studying – US Greenback Forecast: FOMC Minutes to Element Fed Tapering
— Written by Wealthy Dvorak, Analyst for DailyFX.com
Join with @RichDvorakFX on Twitter for real-time market insight
aspect contained in the
aspect. That is most likely not what you meant to do!Load your utility’s JavaScript bundle contained in the aspect as an alternative.
www.dailyfx.com