Selective disclosure is making it increasingly difficult to trade

The market has an insider trading problem, or at least the perception of one.

This administration started with a memecoin pump and it’s been downhill from there as Trump’s tweet about a crypto reserve was clearly front run. Earlier this month there was a suspicious pump from Trump before he abandoned the ‘reciprocal tariffs’ and now this.

Yesterday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated to a private JPMorgan meeting that “markets would breathe a sigh of relief” because it was inevitable that China tariffs would be lowered. Then, after the close Trump dropped his attacks on Powell and said he would make a deal with China, even if China didn’t come to the table.

Markets were up big yesterday before the Bessent news and now futures are up 2.6% today.

I’m always suspicious of people who point to curious options trades around macro events but it’s getting hard to ignore. There are selective disclosures and unusual options trades that leave everyone with a pit in the stomach whenever there is a move without news. That’s a tough environment to have any conviction in.

We’re close to a consensus that every move is insider trading and that means that the only trades worth taking are for one hour or one year.