US Greenback, S&P 500, USD/CAD, Dealer Positioning – Speaking Factors
- US Greenback in danger as markets look ahead to native fiscal stimulus
- Sentiment warns S&P 500 might rise in close to time period, hurting the USD
- USD/CAD outlook nonetheless biased to the upside on sentiment, tendencies
What Does Dealer Positioning Say In regards to the US Greenback Value Development?
On this week’s session, I mentioned the outlook for the US Greenback given rising hopes of native fiscal stimulus. That helped deliver the most important single-day acquire within the Dow Jones since 1933. The cautious enchancment in sentiment is weighing towards the haven-linked Dollar in the intervening time.
There could also be scope for close to time period losses after my majors-based USD index took out “interior” assist on the chart beneath. Down the street if “outer” assist holds, the dominant uptrend might stay intact. From right here, what’s the outlook given indicators in dealer positioning on Wall Road and thereby the Greenback?
Starts in:
Live now:
Apr 01
( 00:04 GMT )
Recommended by Daniel Dubrovsky
What Do Other Traders Buy/Sell Bets Say About Price Trends?
Majors-Based mostly US Greenback Index – 4-Hour Chart
USD Index Chart Created in Buying and selling View
S&P 500 Sentiment Outlook
In accordance with IG Consumer Sentiment, about 50.28% of merchants are internet lengthy the S&P 500 on the time of writing. That is after a 23.5% and 27.92% enhance in brief bets over a day by day and weekly foundation respectively. Latest modifications in sentiment warn that the present worth development might quickly reverse increased regardless of the very fact merchants stay internetlengthy. Which will converse to traders making an attempt to choose the subsequent prime within the S&P 500.
Recommended by Daniel Dubrovsky
Improve your trading with IG Client Sentiment Data
S&P 500 Technical Evaluation
From a technical standpoint, S&P 500 futures managed to shut above “interior” resistance on the 4-hour chart beneath. Additional upside affirmation might lengthen the latest backside as costs intention in the direction of “outer” resistance. The latter might preserve the dominant downtrend since topping in late February. Costs are additionally nervously testing rising assist from 2009. Resuming losses entails taking out assist at 2174.
S&P 500 Futures 4-Hour Chart
S&P 500 Futures Chart Created in Buying and selling View
Canadian Greenback Sentiment Outlook
IG Consumer Sentiment exhibits that about 25.29% of retail merchants are internet lengthy USD/CAD on the time of writing. Internet-short positioning is on the rise, up 9.01% and 10.64% over a day by day and weekly foundation respectively. The mix of present sentiment and up to date modifications affords a stronger USD/CAD-bullish contrarian buying and selling bias. From a psychological standpoint, that will converse to extra traders making an attempt to choose the highest.
Canadian Greenback Technical Evaluation
USD/CAD continues to commerce sideways below highs from 2016, making for a key vary of resistance between 1.4576 to 1.4690. Sustaining the upward trajectory are two ranges of assist, “outer” and “interior” beneath. Taking out the previous might pave the best way to check the latter which might down the street deliver declines to a pause. Resuming the uptrend entails taking out 2016 peaks.
USD/CAD Each day Chart
USD/CAD Chart Created in Buying and selling View
*IG Consumer Sentiment Charts and Positioning Knowledge Used from March 24 Report
— Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Forex Analyst for DailyFX.com
To contact Daniel, use the feedback part beneath or @ddubrovskyFX on Twitter