US. in Recession Watch According to UCLA Anderson Forecast

Could a recession be coming for the United States? There is a distinct chance that the country will enter this economic state in the near future, says a renowned economy forecasting service.

For years, the UCLA Anderson Forecast has predicted economic trends and is now focused on a possible U.S. recession. The main factor, they say, contributing to the risk of recession is the way U.S. President Donald Trump has changed tariff policy dramatically in recent weeks.

They also mentioned that Trump’s immigration policies and his attempts to downsize the government workforce could all lead to a recessive state for the economy. If his policies continue and are fulfilled as he has announced them, then a recession is likely to happen, the forecast says.

The Bright Side

The good news is that there are no visible signs of recession at the moment, according to the report. The likelihood that this kind of economic downturn will happen is attributed to concerns over how government policies will shape the economy in the near term.

When Trump was elected and before he took office, investors and economists were, in large part, very excited about what his business experience meant for the U.S economy. His election win caused a surge in stock market prices, cryptocurrency, and the value of the U.S. dollar. Since he took office in January, though, the economy has gone in another direction. The stock markets have been in a bearish trend for weeks, but still there is no solid indication that recession is going to occur.

If a U.S. recession were to occur, it would be announced by the National Bureau of Economic Research, namely its Business Cycle Dating Committee. They use several factors to determine if a recession has occurred, including income, production, growth, and employment. Some of these factors are in decline or are flat, which leads economists to suspect a recession could happen in the near future, but for now the U.S. economy is safe. None of those factors would indicate at this present time that a recession is imminent. 

Timothy St. John

Financial Writer – European & US Desks

Timothy St John is a seasoned financial analyst and writer, catering to the dynamic landscapes of the US and European markets. Boasting over a decade of extensive freelance writing experience, he has made significant contributions to reputable platforms such as Yahoo!Finance, business.com: Expert Business Advice, Tips, and Resources – Business.com, and numerous others. Timothy’s expertise lies in in-depth research and comprehensive coverage of stock and cryptocurrency movements, coupled with a keen understanding of the economic factors influencing currency dynamics. Timothy majored in English at East Tennessee State University, and you can find him on LinkedIn.