USD/CAD Weak spot Set to Proceed, Assist Beneath Strain

Canadian Greenback Worth, Information, and Evaluation:

• USD/CAD seeking to break beneath 1.2525.
• Demand for oil will proceed to underpin the Canadian greenback.
• Retail has elevated their lengthy USD/CAD positions.

USD/CAD continues to leak decrease with decrease highs a characteristic of the every day chart. Resistance continues to dam any additional upside, whereas help is beneath strain and appears more and more fragile.

The Canadian greenback continues to learn from the re-opening commerce with a constructive oil advanced giving the Loonie a lift. The value of oil is at present almost 30% larger in 2021 and this has helped push USD/CAD decrease regardless of the energy of the US greenback over the identical timeframe. The continued rollout of vaccination applications across the globe is fueling demand for oil and this may proceed as economies re-open and develop, aided by large financial stimulus packages.

USD/CAD is now buying and selling beneath each the 20- and 5-day easy shifting averages and these will act as resistance to any short-term transfer larger. Above right here, there’s a cluster of current highs all the way in which as much as 1.2648 which can show tough to beat. To the draw back there are 5 current lows between 1.2520 and 1.2523 that may act as preliminary help earlier than the April 5 multi-week low at 1.2494 comes into play. Tuesday’s long-wicked candle highlighted the weak spot available in the market and it’ll want a elementary driver to push USD/CAD larger within the quick time period.

Transferring Averages (MA) Defined for Merchants

The financial calendar exhibits two excessive significance information releases that would transfer each the US greenback and the value of oil. On Thursday at 12.30, the newest US retail gross sales information will likely be launched, whereas very early Friday morning the Chinese language Q1 GDP launch will should be intently monitored.

For all market-moving occasions and information releases, see the DailyFX Calendar.

USD/CAD Every day Worth Chart (June 2020 – April 14, 2021)

IG Retail dealer information present 68.75% of merchants are net-long with the ratio of merchants lengthy to quick at 2.20 to 1. The variety of merchants net-long is 14.76% larger than yesterday and 31.87% larger from final week, whereas the variety of merchants net-short is 16.84% decrease than yesterday and 35.94% decrease from final week.

We sometimes take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the actual fact merchants are net-long suggests USD/CAD costs might proceed to fall.Merchants are additional net-long than yesterday and final week, and the mix of present sentiment and up to date modifications provides us a stronger USD/CAD-bearish contrarian buying and selling bias.

What’s your view on USD/CAD – bullish or bearish?? You’ll be able to tell us by way of the shape on the finish of this piece or you possibly can contact the writer by way of Twitter @nickcawley1.