usd-chfSkerdian Meta•Thursday, April 3, 2025•2 min read Add an article to your Reading ListRegister now to be able to add articles to your reading l
usd-chf
Skerdian Meta•Thursday, April 3, 2025•2 min read
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USD/CHF kept banging against the 100 daily SMA, but reversed 1 cent lower last night, benefiting from the safe haven status.
Risk Sentiment Wavers as USD/CHF Sees Renewed Volatility
Financial markets are currently caught in a tug-of-war between risk-on and risk-off sentiment, leading to increased volatility in the USD/CHF currency pair. At the start of the week, the US dollar gained traction, pushing USD/CHF above 0.8850 as risk appetite remained relatively strong. However, resistance at the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) proved too strong, leading to a rejection and a subsequent reversal following the US market close.
The primary trigger for this sudden shift was the announcement of new trade tariffs. The White House confirmed an aggressive expansion of its trade policies, introducing a baseline 10% tariff on all U.S. imports while also imposing steep “reciprocal” tariffs on around 60 countries. These include key trading partners such as China and the European Union, with China facing an increase from 20% to a total of 54% in tariffs.
Safe-Haven Currencies Strengthen as Investors Turn Cautious
Following the tariff announcement, risk sentiment deteriorated sharply, triggering a selloff in equities and risk-sensitive assets. As a result, traditional safe-haven assets, including the Swiss Franc (CHF), Japanese Yen (JPY), and gold, saw a surge in demand. This flight to safety caused the USD/CHF pair to drop by a full cent as investors sought refuge from growing economic uncertainty.
The combination of trade tensions and heightened market anxiety suggests that USD/CHF could remain volatile in the coming days. Traders will now be closely monitoring global reactions to the tariffs, along with any further policy shifts from Washington, which could continue to drive swings in currency markets.
Trump’s unexpectedly harsh retaliatory tariffs triggered a wave of risk-off sentiment, fueling concerns about a potential global recession. As a result, the US dollar has weakened, with markets pricing in more aggressive rate cuts, anticipating a deeper economic impact on the US. The tariff announcement acted as the catalyst for the move, pushing the currency pair out of its month-long range and accelerating selling pressure.
In the current market environment, attempting to catch a falling knife is risky, especially with no clear bullish drivers in sight. A temporary rebound could occur if the Federal Reserve delivers hawkish comments or if US economic data significantly exceeds expectations. However, such a move would likely present another selling opportunity rather than a lasting recovery.
USD/CHF Live Chart
USD/CHF
Skerdian Meta
Lead Analyst
Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst.
Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank’s local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.
www.fxleaders.com