Nasdaq 100 Value Outlook: Nasdaq 100 Forecast: What Can Merchants Count on in December?The Nasdaq 100 closed November greater tha
Nasdaq 100 Value Outlook:
Nasdaq 100 Forecast: What Can Merchants Count on in December?
The Nasdaq 100 closed November greater than 11% greater for the month after surging within the aftermath of the US Presidential election and on the invention of a possible coronavirus vaccine. The 2 themes took turns dominating headlines all through November, whereas hopes of returning to a pre-covid world sparked some sector-specific rotations. The rotation away from scorching work-from-home shares into extra conventional companies helped the Dow Jones and Russell 2000 outpace the Nasdaq 100 for the month – an rare prevalence to make sure.
Nasdaq 100 Value Chart: 4 – Hour Time Body (August 2020 – November 2020)
However, the Nasdaq 100 stays properly positioned as markets enter the twilight of 2020. Stimulus hopes and potential impasse in Washington that will take advantage of progressive insurance policies of Biden’s agenda troublesome to move have taken up the torch for bulls and the Federal Reserve appears to be like to stay steadfast of their accommodative stance.
S&P 500 Seasonality
Supply: Bloomberg, John Kicklighter
Collectively, it may be argued doable tailwinds are current within the fairness market headed into December and 2021, however the white-hot rally of November could give rise to extra pensive value motion earlier than a continuation greater can unfold.Additional nonetheless, the decision of the US election has seen volatility deflate – exacerbated by the seasonal drawdown in volatility typically seen in November and December.
Inventory Market Vacation Calendar 2020/21: World Shares Market
Thus, additional positive aspects would possibly lack the breakneck velocity that was displayed final month and there are potential headwinds on the horizon.That being mentioned, momentary consolidation would possibly show wholesome within the longer-term as previous value motion is examined and gaps are shored up.
| Change in | Longs | Shorts | OI |
| Every day | 18% | -2% | 6% |
| Weekly | -8% | 1% | -3% |
No matter route, it appears seasonality would possibly contribute to a pullback in volatility that may see value transfer extra cautiously in December in comparison with what was noticed in September, October and November. Within the meantime, comply with @PeterHanksFXon Twitter for updates and evaluation.
–Written by Peter Hanks, Strategist for DailyFX.com
Contact and comply with Peter on Twitter @PeterHanksFXt