Will USD/CAD Enter A 5-Week Uptrend as Carney Calls Canadian Elections?

USD/CAD has been trying to bounce off support, and the announcement of Canada elections in late April might give it the push this pair needs.

Canada Heads to Elections Amid Market Volatility

Mark Carney, who officially became Canada’s 24th prime minister on March 14, 2025, just days after securing the Liberal leadership, announced over the weekend that the country will hold federal elections on April 28. In a widely expected move, Carney met with Governor-General Mary Simon on Sunday to request the dissolution of Parliament, officially triggering the election campaign.

Carney will go head-to-head with Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre in what is shaping up to be a highly competitive race. While polls have long indicated a strong Conservative lead, recent data suggests a shift, with the Liberals regaining some ground. However, with polling accuracy increasingly questioned, market participants remain cautious about predicting election outcomes.

USD/CAD Reacts to Trade Policy and Inflation Data

The USD/CAD exchange rate has been on an upward trajectory for five weeks, reaching a high of 1.4792 after U.S. President Donald Trump signed a 25% tariff on Canadian and Mexican imports into law. However, as trade negotiations progressed and some tariff measures were revised, the pair retraced to 1.4150 as traders speculated on potential reductions or eliminations of tariffs.

Despite ongoing uncertainty, the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) has proven to be a strong support level, prompting multiple rebounds. Last month’s higher-than-expected Canadian CPI inflation data provided fresh momentum for USD/CAD, reinforcing the importance of this key technical level in shaping future price action. As political and economic developments unfold, traders will be closely monitoring how the upcoming elections and trade negotiations impact the pair’s direction in the weeks ahead.

USD/CAD Live Chart

USD/CAD

Skerdian Meta

Lead Analyst

Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst.
Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank’s local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.

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