You have two options | Forexlive

The market is navigating different outcomes and in the simplest terms, here’s how it shapes up.

1) High inflation with ongoing growth and Fed hikes above 4%

This is the scenario the market grappled with for most of the year and the results speak for themselves. It was the worst H1 for the S&P 500 since 1970 and the worst for the Nasdaq ever.

2) A recession but inflation under control

The word ‘recession’ never sounds good to investors but I’d argue that done right, this is the better scenario. As the market has shifted its focus to recession, borrowing costs have come down and a terminal rate of 3.25-3.50% in Fed funds is priced in, coming down to 2.75% about 8 month later.

Unfortunately, markets have gotten drunk on cheap money for far too long and are hopelessly addicted now. Everything is leveraged. If rates top out and we can kick the can down the road on popping the bond bubble, then there’s scope for a ‘recession rally’ as bizarre as that sounds.

The third scenario

The nightmare scenario is stagflation, where we get a recession and  inflation 
Inflation

Inflation is defined as a quantitative measure of the rate in which the average price level of goods and services in an economy or country increases over a period of time. It is the rise in the general level of prices where a given currency effectively buys less than it did in prior periods.In terms of assessing the strength or currencies, and by extension foreign exchange, inflation or measures of it are extremely influential. Inflation stems from the overall creation of money. This money is measured by the level of the total money supply of a specific currency, for example the US dollar, which is constantly increasing. However, an increase in the money supply does not necessarily mean that there is inflation. What leads to inflation is a faster increase in the money supply in relation to the wealth produced (measured with GDP). As such, this generates pressure of demand on a supply that does not increase at the same rate. The consumer price index then increases, generating inflation.How Does Inflation Affect Forex?The level of inflation has a direct impact on the exchange rate between two currencies on several levels.This includes purchasing power parity, which attempts to compare different purchasing powers of each country according to the general price level. In doing so, this makes it possible to determine the country with the most expensive cost of living.The currency with the higher inflation rate consequently loses value and depreciates, while the currency with the lower inflation rate appreciates on the forex market.Interest rates are also impacted. Inflation rates that are too high push interest rates up, which has the effect of depreciating the currency on foreign exchange. Conversely, inflation that is too low (or deflation) pushes interest rates down, which has the effect of appreciating the currency on the forex market.

Inflation is defined as a quantitative measure of the rate in which the average price level of goods and services in an economy or country increases over a period of time. It is the rise in the general level of prices where a given currency effectively buys less than it did in prior periods.In terms of assessing the strength or currencies, and by extension foreign exchange, inflation or measures of it are extremely influential. Inflation stems from the overall creation of money. This money is measured by the level of the total money supply of a specific currency, for example the US dollar, which is constantly increasing. However, an increase in the money supply does not necessarily mean that there is inflation. What leads to inflation is a faster increase in the money supply in relation to the wealth produced (measured with GDP). As such, this generates pressure of demand on a supply that does not increase at the same rate. The consumer price index then increases, generating inflation.How Does Inflation Affect Forex?The level of inflation has a direct impact on the exchange rate between two currencies on several levels.This includes purchasing power parity, which attempts to compare different purchasing powers of each country according to the general price level. In doing so, this makes it possible to determine the country with the most expensive cost of living.The currency with the higher inflation rate consequently loses value and depreciates, while the currency with the lower inflation rate appreciates on the forex market.Interest rates are also impacted. Inflation rates that are too high push interest rates up, which has the effect of depreciating the currency on foreign exchange. Conversely, inflation that is too low (or deflation) pushes interest rates down, which has the effect of appreciating the currency on the forex market.
Read this Term doesn’t fall. That might be possible if the world continues to be short of commodities, or loses faith in central banks. I think we priced in a chance of this in the past few weeks but given how quickly consumer sentiment and industrial orders are declining, along with  commodities 
Commodities

Commodities are assets that are either naturally grown or occurring in the environment. Most commonly this includes precious metals such as gold, silver, and palladium.Beyond metals, commodities can also focus on agricultural or industrial goods that are central to manufacturing or other sectors. This includes crude oil, copper, wheat, and others.Relative to other assets, commodities are an extremely complex form of investment, with many similarities and differences to existing products.Commodities can be traded on exchanges where investors work as a team to purchase or trade products in an attempt to generate profit from the fluctuation of market prices or because they need that particular product.Additionally, commodities are often traded through the use of exchange-traded-funds (ETFs) to give exposure to investors.How to Trade CommoditiesCommodities trading is not reserved only for institutional traders but also ordinary retail ones as wellNearly all retail brokers carry some offering of commodities, giving investors access to these assets.Investors, just like companies or other investment institutions, are able to make a profit from daily changes in commodity prices. There are several methods that investors can use to trade commodities. Commodities can be traded in futures – these are contracts that direct the purchase or trade of a commodity at a certain price. Futures trading can be particularly risky and is usually reserved for more advanced traders given the complexity of these trades.In addition, commodities can also be traded with options – this means the commodity is purchased or traded at a particular date and price.Commodities are also commonly traded with leverage, not unlike other assets, which can result in large profits or losses due to volatility in markets.

Commodities are assets that are either naturally grown or occurring in the environment. Most commonly this includes precious metals such as gold, silver, and palladium.Beyond metals, commodities can also focus on agricultural or industrial goods that are central to manufacturing or other sectors. This includes crude oil, copper, wheat, and others.Relative to other assets, commodities are an extremely complex form of investment, with many similarities and differences to existing products.Commodities can be traded on exchanges where investors work as a team to purchase or trade products in an attempt to generate profit from the fluctuation of market prices or because they need that particular product.Additionally, commodities are often traded through the use of exchange-traded-funds (ETFs) to give exposure to investors.How to Trade CommoditiesCommodities trading is not reserved only for institutional traders but also ordinary retail ones as wellNearly all retail brokers carry some offering of commodities, giving investors access to these assets.Investors, just like companies or other investment institutions, are able to make a profit from daily changes in commodity prices. There are several methods that investors can use to trade commodities. Commodities can be traded in futures – these are contracts that direct the purchase or trade of a commodity at a certain price. Futures trading can be particularly risky and is usually reserved for more advanced traders given the complexity of these trades.In addition, commodities can also be traded with options – this means the commodity is purchased or traded at a particular date and price.Commodities are also commonly traded with leverage, not unlike other assets, which can result in large profits or losses due to volatility in markets.
Read this Term, this has grown more remote.