Xpeng (NYSE: XPEV) printed a narrower-than-expected internet loss for Q1 2021, pushed by rising electrical car gross sales and increasing margins. The corporate delivered a complete of 13,340 automobiles over the quarter, marking a rise of 487% year-over-year and round 3% sequentially, serving to revenues rise to about RMB 2.95 billion ($450 million). Gross revenue margins had been notably robust, coming in at 11.2%, up from unfavourable 4.8% a yr in the past, indicating that Xpeng is producing its automobiles rather more effectively. For perspective, the broader world auto trade sees gross margins of below 10%. Xpeng inventory was up by as a lot as 4.50% in pre-market buying and selling on Thursday.
Xpeng’s outlook for the present quarter can be trying moderately robust. The corporate says that deliveries for Q2 are projected to face at between 15,500 and 16,000, marking a bounce of 20% sequentially on the higher finish of steerage. Whereas the upper sequential development is partly as a consequence of seasonality, Xpeng’s outlook could possibly be an indicator that it isn’t being as badly hit by the present semiconductor scarcity as different automakers. As an illustration, Xpeng’s bigger rival Nio has solely guided 7% sequential development on the mid-point for Q2, because it indicated that it expects the chip scarcity to worsen.
So is Xpeng inventory a purchase at present ranges? The inventory has corrected by over 40% year-to-date, as larger inflation and rising fee fears have hit development shares. Nonetheless, the corporate’s moderately robust Q1 efficiency, its stronger near-term outlook, and decrease ahead value to gross sales a number of versus friends resembling Nio (9x versus 10.5x) might make the inventory price a have a look at present ranges. See our evaluation on Nio, Xpeng & Li Auto: How Do Chinese language EV Shares Evaluate? for an outline of the monetary and valuation metrics of the three Chinese language EV gamers.
[5/3/2021] How Did Chinese language EV Gamers Fare In April?
Chinese language electrical car majors Nio (NYSE: NIO), Li Auto (NASDAQ: LI), and Xpeng (NYSE: XPEV) supplied combined supply figures for the month of April, with gross sales development slowing or declining on a month over month foundation, pushed by the present scarcity of semiconductors and probably as a consequence of rising competitors within the Chinese language EV market. Though all three corporations reported strong year-over-year development numbers (2x to 4x), the sequential figures are extra intently tracked for fast-growing corporations. Nio delivered 7,102 automobiles in April 2021, marking a decline of about 2% from March. Xpeng delivered 5,147 automobiles, with the quantity remaining virtually flat in comparison with March. Li Auto managed to develop deliveries by about 13% versus final month to five,539, though its sequential development fee was considerably decrease than in April.
Now, the slowdown wasn’t completely sudden. The continued chip scarcity has hit the automotive trade the toughest, with main gamers starting from Volkswagen to Toyota having to idle manufacturing crops. Nio, as an illustration, had indicated throughout its Q1 earnings name final week that the present chip scarcity was extreme, guiding for sequential supply development of nearly 7% on the mid-point for the second quarter. Competitors has additionally been mounting, with Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) now promoting a regionally made model of its Mannequin Y and enormous Chinese language gamers resembling BYD Auto additionally gaining traction. Nonetheless, the present sluggishness is probably going priced into the shares which have underperformed considerably this yr. Nio inventory stays down by about 25% year-to-date, Li Auto is down 39%, and Xpeng is down by about 32%. See our evaluation on Nio, Xpeng & Li Auto: How Do Chinese language EV Shares Evaluate? for an outline of the monetary and valuation metrics of the three Chinese language EV gamers.
Whereas automakers and client electronics gamers have been hit by the semiconductor provide crunch, there are a handful of corporations which can be benefiting from the state of affairs. See our theme on Shares That Profit From The Semiconductor Scarcity for extra particulars.
[4/19/2021] Why Are Chinese language EV Shares Declining?
Chinese language electrical car shares had a comparatively robust week, with Nio (NYSE: NIO) declining by about 5%, Xpeng (NYSE: XPEV) declining by about 11%, and Li Auto (NASDAQ:LI) inventory falling by about 15% during the last 5 buying and selling days. Compared, the S&P 500 gained virtually 1.5% during the last week. The three shares are additionally down by between 30% to 40% year-to-date. So what’s driving the latest sell-off? Firstly, traders are probably involved that the worldwide semiconductor scarcity which is weighing within the automotive trade might more and more influence Chinese language EV gamers. Secondly, competitors within the Chinese language EV house can be mounting with giant Chinese language automakers, world auto majors, and upstarts betting large on electrical automobiles in China. For instance, China’s largest carmaker, Geely, is launching a premium electrical automobile model of its personal. Ford additionally not too long ago began taking orders for its all-electric Mustang Mach-E crossover car in China. Even client electronics behemoth Xiaomi plans to speculate about $10 billion in growing EVs. With the Shanghai Motor Present slated to start on April 21, we’re more likely to see loads of new EVs making their debuts in China. Though the EV market in China is sizable with round 1.Three million automobiles bought in 2020 and gross sales projected to develop by over 50% this yr, larger competitors will put stress on the likes of Nio, Xpeng, and Li Auto.
See our evaluation on Nio, Xpeng & Li Auto: How Do Chinese language EV Shares Evaluate? for an outline of the monetary and valuation metrics of three main Chinese language EV gamers.
[3/29/2021] Nio Inventory A Purchase?
U.S. listed Chinese language electrical car shares have declined significantly this yr. Nio (NYSE: NIO) and Xpeng (NYSE: XPEV) are down by about 25% year-to-date, whereas Li Auto (NASDAQ:LI) is down by near 20%. Compared, the broader NASDAQ index is up by 2% year-to-date. So what’s driving the decline? Whereas excessive development shares, usually, have been impacted on account of rising rates of interest, Chinese language EV gamers are additionally being damage by a few different components. Firstly, competitors is mounting. As an illustration, Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) not too long ago began promoting a regionally made model of its Mannequin Y, whereas China’s largest carmaker, Geely, is launching a premium electrical automobile model of its personal. Secondly, the worldwide chip scarcity has began to hit Chinese language EV majors. Nio will quickly droop the car manufacturing exercise at its manufacturing plant in Hefei for 5 working days ranging from March 29 as a consequence of an absence of chips, and it’s probably that different gamers will even be impacted. Thirdly, U.S.-listed Chinese language shares are being weighed down by issues that they could possibly be de-listed from American exchanges, with the SEC starting to evaluation the monetary audits of abroad corporations.
Total, itemizing associated issues apart, we expect that Chinese language EV shares seem like comparatively good bets at present ranges. The EV market in China is very large, with deliveries in 2020 standing at about 1.Three million items and gross sales projected to develop by over 50% this yr. Homegrown manufacturers resembling Nio, Li Auto, and Xpeng are higher positioned to profit, given their deeper data of the native markets, favorable regulation, and distinctive improvements focused at Chinese language shoppers. Whereas these corporations commerce at excessive multiples, they’ve development on their aspect, with all three corporations on observe to at the least double income this yr. See our evaluation on Nio, Xpeng & Li Auto: How Do Chinese language EV Shares Evaluate? for an outline of the monetary and valuation metrics of three main Chinese language EV gamers.
[3/19/2021] Nio Inventory A Purchase?
Nio inventory (NYSE: NIO) is down by virtually 25% during the last month, buying and selling at ranges of round $42 per share. The inventory can be down by about 34% from its all-time highs. So what’s driving the correction? Firstly, there was a broader sell-off in high-growth shares on account of rising rates of interest. Secondly, competitors within the luxurious electrical SUV house in China is rising, with Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) commencing deliveries of a regionally made model of its Mannequin Y. Individually, the worldwide scarcity of semiconductors has additionally damage automotive corporations and traders are probably involved that Nio could possibly be impacted.
That mentioned, we expect Nio inventory seems like a comparatively good worth for the time being. Though the inventory nonetheless trades at a seemingly steep 12x projected 2021 revenues, Nio is rising very quick. Gross sales are projected to greater than double this yr and to develop by virtually 65% in 2022, per consensus estimates. We expect the corporate ought to proceed to fare nicely regardless of rising competitors. The EV market in China is very large, with gross sales in 2020 standing at about 1.Three million items and gross sales are projected to develop by over 50% this yr. Nio might have an edge in China, being a homegrown model that provides distinctive improvements resembling battery-as-a-service.
See our evaluation on Nio, Xpeng & Li Auto: How Do Chinese language EV Shares Evaluate? for an outline of the monetary and valuation metrics of three main Chinese language EV gamers.
[3/2/2021] Nio Inventory Updates
Chinese language luxurious electrical car maker Nio (NYSE:NIO) printed a combined set of This fall 2020 outcomes on Monday. Whereas the corporate’s loss per American Depositary Share was wider than anticipated at about -$0.14, revenues got here in barely forward of expectations rising 46.7% sequentially to about $1.02 billion, pushed by stronger deliveries of the ES8, ES6, and EC6 automobiles. Nio’s inventory was down by about 5% in pre-market buying and selling on Tuesday, probably because of the firm’s lighter-than-expected steerage.
Nio expects to ship between 20,000 and 20,500 automobiles in Q1 2021, marking a rise of about 17% on the midpoint from This fall 2020. Contemplating that the corporate has already delivered 7,225 automobiles in January, gross sales over February and March are more likely to be barely weaker in comparison with January. Though that is probably as a consequence of companies remaining shut by the Lunar New yr competition interval that passed off in early February, it ought to be famous that competitors within the electrical SUV house in China can be mounting. Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) not too long ago began deliveries of a regionally made model of its Mannequin Y compact SUV. The car is comparatively competitively priced and will put stress on luxurious EV gamers resembling Nio. Individually, the corporate has indicated {that a} scarcity in semiconductors and batteries is more likely to minimize its manufacturing over Q2 2021 to 7,500 automobiles per thirty days, down from 10,000.
See our evaluation on Nio, Xpeng & Li Auto: How Do Chinese language EV Shares Evaluate? for an outline of the monetary and valuation metrics of three main Chinese language EV gamers.
[Updated 2/8/2021] Will Tesla’s Mannequin Y Damage Nio and Li Auto?
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) is beginning deliveries of a regionally made model of its Mannequin Y compact SUV in China. Will this influence high-flying Chinese language electrical car makers Nio (NYSE: NIO) and Li Auto (NASDAQ:LI) – who makes a speciality of SUVs and have gained plenty of traction within the Chinese language market in latest quarters. It seems prefer it. There have been indicators of a slowdown for each EV gamers of their January 2021 supply figures. Deliveries of Li Auto’s Li-One SUV declined by 12% versus December to five,379. Nio, too, noticed supply development in January gradual to three% in comparison with December, when deliveries grew by round 30%. Whereas these tendencies might not completely be tied to Tesla’s entry into the crossover market, Tesla is anticipated to place stress on each corporations.
Tesla has been gaining floor in China. It bought over 23,000 regionally made Mannequin Three automobiles in China in December – that’s extra automobiles than the large three EV startups Nio, Li Auto, and Xpeng put collectively. Now the Mannequin Y is arguably going to be extra fashionable in comparison with the Mannequin 3, contemplating Chinese language buyer’s desire for crossovers and SUVs. Though the Mannequin Y is unlikely to qualify for China’s nationwide subsidy for electrical automobiles, in contrast to the Mannequin Three sedan, Tesla has additionally priced the car competitively, beginning at about RMB 339,900 ($52,500). That’s under the RMB 353,600 sponsored beginning value for Nio’s EC6 SUV, and barely forward of the RMB 328,000 sponsored value for Li Auto’s SUVs. Tesla’s stronger world model picture and software program options might make its automobiles rather more enticing to Chinese language prospects. Tesla additionally has the size to tackle these corporations within the SUV market. Its Shanghai plant which started operations in late 2019 is more likely to produce as a lot as half 1,000,000 automobiles this yr. Compared, Nio is seeking to enhance manufacturing capability to about 150,000 items.
Nonetheless, Nio and Li Auto do have some benefits. Charging infrastructure stays restricted in China, therefore Nio is betting large on modular batteries for its EVs that may be swapped out in a matter of minutes, serving to to cut back vary nervousness whereas offering batteries as a service (BaaS) below a subscription program. Equally, Li’s focus is on automobiles which have a small gasoline engine that may generate further electrical energy for the battery, lowering reliance on EV-charging infrastructure. These corporations even have the backing of the Chinese language authorities and massive tech corporations and this might show a bonus not simply from the angle of understanding the market higher, but additionally from a regulatory standpoint. For instance, Nio’s backers embrace Tencent and Baidu. The corporate has additionally been bailed out by the Chinese language authorities previously.
See our evaluation on Nio, Xpeng & Li Auto: How Do Chinese language EV Shares Evaluate? for an outline of the monetary and valuation metrics of three main Chinese language EV gamers.
[1/11/2021] Is Nio Worthy Of A $100 Billion Valuation?
Nio (NYSE:NIO) inventory has rallied by over 15% during the last week, amid anticipation forward of the corporate’s annual Nio day occasion that was held on Saturday. Nio’s market cap now stands at a whopping $93 billion- virtually as a lot as Normal Motors and Ford mixed. Does Nio warrant such a valuation? The corporate is definitely rising quick, with Income poised to double to about $5 billion in 2021 with deliveries rising quick (Nio delivered a document 7,000 automobiles in December). The addressable market can be rising rapidly, contemplating that China – Nio’s dwelling nation – has set a goal that 25% of automobile gross sales by 2025 have to be new power automobiles that aren’t purely gasoline-driven. That being mentioned, is Nio constructing a aggressive benefit to justify its present valuation and fend off rivals because the market will get extra crowded?
Nio seems to be innovating in two key areas – specifically battery expertise and self-driving software program, and this can be a large a part of the narrative driving the inventory. Nio is betting large on modular batteries for its EVs that may be swapped out in a matter of minutes, serving to to cut back vary nervousness whereas offering batteries as a service (BaaS) below a subscription program. Nonetheless, that is unlikely to present the corporate an edge, as different gamers may simply replicate this. In actual fact, China’s EV coverage encourages constructing in battery swapping. EVs priced above RMB300,000 (round $46,000) are granted subsidies provided that they’ve a swapping choice. Nio has additionally unveiled a denser battery pack with 150 kWh of capability (up from 100kWh at the moment). This battery choice might be out there solely in late 2022 – virtually 2 years out – and it’s attainable that different gamers might even have comparable capability batteries by then, working with mainstream battery cell suppliers resembling CATL.
The corporate spent a great deal of time throughout its Nio Day occasion discussing the self-driving tech on its new sedan due in 2022 and a associated month-to-month subscription program. The main target gave the impression to be extra on the {hardware} resembling high-resolution cameras, lidar sensors, and Nvidia processors – all of that are more likely to be out there to most different automakers. Nonetheless, what actually offers corporations an edge in self-driving is the standard of software program and the supply of huge quantities of knowledge (miles pushed) to enhance algorithms. For perspective, Tesla has logged a complete of three billion autonomous miles as of final April whereas Google’s Waymo logged about 20 million miles. It’s not clear how Nio will fare on these counts.
Total, whereas Nio is definitely rising quick, constructing a model that’s turning into synonymous with luxurious Chinese language EVs, its valuation seems wealthy in our view, as we don’t see a sustainable aggressive benefit but. Nio now trades at about 18.6x consensus 2021 Revenues, which implies that it’s valued equally to expensive Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA), whose robust software program and self-driving capabilities partly justify its valuation.
[12/15/2020] Why Has Nio Inventory Been Trending Decrease
Chinese language premium Electrical car maker Nio (NYSE:NIO) has seen its inventory decline by virtually 20% during the last two weeks, falling to ranges of round $41 per share regardless of posting a robust supply quantity for the month of November with gross sales greater than doubling year-over-year to five,291 items. Whereas a part of the decline is probably going as a consequence of some revenue reserving after an over 10x rally this yr, Nio’s transfer to boost about $2.65 billion through a sizeable secondary share providing additionally damage the inventory. The providing was priced at about $39 per American depositary shares (ADS), a reduction to the market value of about $42 as of Friday’s shut. That mentioned, this ought to be a internet constructive for the corporate within the long-run. The funding nonetheless comes at enticing valuations (Nio trades at a whopping 23x projected 2020 Income, forward of Tesla) and dilution of current shareholders is proscribed. Furthermore, the funds ought to give the corporate a snug money cushion, with the proceeds probably for use to fund R&D for brand new automobiles and autonomous driving expertise and to increase the corporate’s gross sales community.
[Updated 11/18/2020] Is Nio Overvalued?
Nio (NYSE:NIO) – the premium Chinese language electrical car producer – reported its Q3 2020 outcomes on Tuesday, posting a smaller than anticipated quarterly loss, pushed by document deliveries and better margins. Whereas Revenues rose by 22% sequentially to RMB 4.53 billion (about $667 million), gross margins expanded by about 480 foundation factors to 12.9% pushed by decrease materials price and higher manufacturing effectivity. Nio continues to profit from robust demand and incentives for EVs in China, guiding that it might ship between 16,500 to 17,000 automobiles over This fall. This interprets right into a sequential development of at the least 35%.
See our evaluation Nio, Xpeng & Li Auto: How Do Chinese language EV Shares Evaluate? which compares the monetary efficiency and valuation of the most important U.S. listed Chinese language electrical car gamers.
Regardless of the stronger-than-expected outcomes and This fall steerage, we expect Nio inventory seems overvalued. The inventory is up by over 12x year-to-date and trades at about 27x projected 2020 Revenues. Compared, Tesla – a extra mature EV participant, with stable software program capabilities and rising publicity to China – trades at about 13x projected gross sales. Whereas Nio’s development charges are definitely larger than Tesla’s, it is usually riskier contemplating the extraordinary competitors within the Chinese language EV market, which has a number of lots of of producers.
[Updated 11/16/2020] As Nio Inventory Continues To Surge, Are Traders Getting Forward Of Themselves?
Nio (NYSE:NIO) – the premium Chinese language EV producer – has seen its inventory soar a whopping 58% during the last month buying and selling at about $45 per share, pushed by robust supply numbers for October and a conducive regulatory atmosphere in China for EVs. After a 12x rally yr so far, Nio’s market cap is now larger than Normal Motors (NYSE:GM). Whereas Nio is little doubt rising rapidly, with Income on observe to double this yr, the inventory seems overvalued in our view for a few causes. Firstly, there’s a chance that Tesla might give Nio a run for its cash in its dwelling turf, because it prepares to launch a regionally made Mannequin Y SUV, which experiences point out could possibly be priced cheaper than Nio’s entry-level SUV ES6, which begins at $54ok. Along with a doubtlessly lower cost, Tesla’s stronger model picture and software program options might make its automobiles rather more enticing to prospects. The corporate might additionally face challenges additional scaling up manufacturing. For instance, Nio recalled about 5,000 automobiles final yr after experiences of a number of fires. Nio can be very richly valued at about 26x projected 2020 Revenues, in comparison with Tesla which trades at about 12x. Whereas Nio’s development charges are definitely larger than Tesla’s, the dangers are additionally larger given the extraordinary competitors within the Chinese language EV house the place there are over 400 producers.
[11/3/2020] Sturdy October Deliveries Drive Chinese language EV Shares
The inventory costs of main U.S. listed Chinese language electric-vehicle (EV) producers soared on Monday, as they reported robust deliveries for October. Nio (NYSE:NIO) – one of many largest EV startups in China – noticed its inventory soar by about 9%, because it reported that deliveries in October virtually doubled year-over-year to five,055 automobiles. Xpeng (NYSE: XPEV), one other premium EV participant noticed its inventory rise by about 7%, because it delivered about 3,040 automobiles by the month, marking a rise of about 230% from a yr in the past, pushed primarily by gross sales of its P7 sedan which was launched earlier this yr. Nonetheless, deliveries had been barely decrease month-over-month. Li Auto (NASDAQ: LI), an organization that sells EVs that even have a small gasoline engine – mentioned that it delivered 3,692 of its Li ONE SUVs in October, marking a month-over-month enhance of about 5%. The corporate started manufacturing solely late final yr.
[10/30/2020] How Do Nio, Xpeng, and Li Auto Evaluate
The Chinese language electrical car (EV) house is booming, with China-based producers accounting for over 50% of worldwide EV deliveries. Demand for EVs in China is more likely to stay strong because the Chinese language authorities needs about 25% of all new automobiles bought within the nation to be electrical by 2025, up from roughly 5% at current. Whereas Tesla is a pacesetter within the Chinese language luxurious EV market pushed by manufacturing at its new Shanghai facility, Nio (NYSE:NIO), Xpeng (NYSE: XPEV), and Li Auto (NASDAQ: LI) – three comparatively younger U.S. listed Chinese language electrical car gamers, have additionally been gaining traction. In our evaluation Nio, Xpeng & Li Auto: How Do Chinese language EV Shares Evaluate? we examine the monetary efficiency and valuation of the most important U.S. listed Chinese language electrical car gamers. Components of the evaluation are summarized under.
Overview Of Nio, Li Auto & Xpeng’s Enterprise
Nio, which was based in 2014, at the moment presents three premium electrical SUVs, ES8, ES6, and EC6, that are priced beginning at about $50ok. The corporate is engaged on growing self-driving expertise and likewise presents different distinctive improvements resembling Battery as a Service (BaaS) – which permits prospects to subscribe for automobile batteries, relatively than paying for them upfront. Whereas the corporate has scaled up manufacturing, it hasn’t come with out challenges, because it recalled about 5,000 automobiles final yr after experiences of a number of fires.
Li Auto sells Prolonged-Vary Electrical Automobiles, that are basically EVs that even have a small gasoline engine that may generate further electrical energy for the battery. This reduces the necessity for EV-charging infrastructure, which is at the moment restricted in China. The corporate’s hybrid technique seems to be paying off – with its Li ONE SUV, which is priced at about $46,000 – rating because the top-selling SUV within the new power car section in China in September 2020. The brand new power section consists of gasoline cell, electrical, and plug-in hybrid automobiles.
Xpeng produces and sells premium electrical automobiles together with the G3 SUV and the P7 four-door sedan, that are roughly positioned as rivals to Tesla’s Mannequin Y SUV and Mannequin Three sedan, though they’re extra reasonably priced, with the essential model of the G3 beginning at about $22,000 publish subsidies. The G3 SUV was among the many high Three Electrical SUVs by way of gross sales in China in 2019. Whereas the corporate started manufacturing in late 2018, initially through a cope with a longtime automaker, it has began manufacturing at its personal manufacturing facility within the Guangdong province.
How Have The Deliveries, Revenues & Margins Trended
Nio delivered about 21ok automobiles in 2019, up from about 11ok automobiles in 2018. This compares to Xpeng which delivered about 13ok automobiles in 2019 and Li Auto which delivered about 1k automobiles, contemplating that it started manufacturing solely late final yr. Whereas Nio’s deliveries this yr might strategy about 40ok items, Li Auto and Xpeng are more likely to ship round 25ok automobiles with Li Auto seeing the best development. Over 2019, Nio’s Revenues stood at $1.1 billion, in comparison with about $40 million for Li Auto and $330 million for Xpeng. Nio’s Revenues are more likely to develop 95% this yr, whereas Xpeng’s Revenues are more likely to develop by about 120%. All three corporations stay deeply lossmaking as prices associated to R&D and SG&A stay excessive relative to Revenues. Nio’s Internet Margins stood at -195% in 2019, Li Auto’s margins stood at about -860% whereas Xpeng’s margins stood at -160%. Nonetheless, margins are probably to enhance sharply in 2020, as volumes decide up.
Valuation
Nio’s Market Cap stood at about $37 billion as of October 28, 2020, with its inventory value rising by about 7x year-to-date as a consequence of surging investor curiosity in EV shares. Li Auto and Xpeng, which had been each listed within the U.S. round August as they seemed to capitalize on surging valuations, have a market cap of about $15 billion and $14 billion, respectively. On a relative foundation, Nio trades at about 15x projected 2020 Revenues, Li Auto trades at about 12x, whereas Xpeng trades at about 20x.
Whereas valuations are definitely excessive, traders are probably betting that these corporations will proceed to develop within the home market, whereas finally enjoying a bigger position within the world EV house leveraging China’s comparatively low-cost manufacturing, and the nation’s ecosystem of battery and auto components suppliers. Of the three corporations, Nio may be the safer guess, contemplating its barely longer observe document, larger Revenues, and investments in expertise resembling battery swaps and self-driving. Li Auto additionally seems enticing contemplating its fast development – pushed by the uptake of its hybrid powertrains – and comparatively enticing valuation of about 12x 2020 Revenues.
Electrical automobiles are the way forward for transportation, however choosing the right EV shares could be difficult. Investing in Electrical Automobile Element Provider Shares is usually a good various to play the expansion within the EV market.
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