The Trade Desk stock (NASDAQ: TTD), an ad technology player that helps companies buy digital ads across publishers, has seen its stock rise by 6.7% over the last week (five trading days) compared to the S&P 500 which declined by about 2% over the same period. But will the company’s stock continue to rise over the coming weeks, or is a decline looking imminent? Based on trends in the company’s stock price over the last five years, the Trefis Machine Learning Engine finds that average returns for TTD stock to be around 7% in the next one-month (twenty-one trading days) period after experiencing a 6.7% rise in a week (five trading days).
According to the Trefis Machine Learning Engine, The Trade Desk’s stock price forecast for a month from now is around $80.90 – up 7% from its current market price of $75.60. But how would these numbers change if you are interested in holding The Trade Desk stock for a shorter or a longer time period? You can test the answer and many other combinations on the interactive dashboard. You can test the chance of recovery over different time intervals of a quarter, month, or even just one day!
Also, you can understand how The Trade Desk’s revenues have changed over the years along with trends in revenues for its closest peers in a separate dashboard analysis.
MACHINE LEARNING ENGINE – try it yourself:
IF TTD stock moved by -5% over five trading days, THEN over the next twenty-one trading days, TTD stock moves an average of 10.1% with a 67.5% probability of a positive return over this period.
Some Fun Scenarios, FAQs & Making Sense of The Trade Desk Stock Movements:
Question 1: Is the price forecast for The Trade Desk stock higher after a drop?
Answer:
Consider two situations,
Case 1: The Trade Desk stock drops by -5% or more in a week
Case 2: The Trade Desk stock rises by 5% or more in a week
Is the price forecast for The Trade Desk stock higher over the subsequent month after Case 1 or Case 2?
TTD stock fares better after Case 1, with an expected return of 10.2% over the next month (21 trading days) under Case 1 (where the stock has just suffered a 5% loss over the previous week), versus, an expected return of 7.3% for Case 2. This implies a price forecast of $83 in Case 1 and a figure of $81 in Case 2 using TTD market price of $75.58 on 9/23/2021.
In comparison, the S&P 500 has an expected return of 3.1% over the next 21 trading days under Case 1, and an expected return of just 0.5% for Case 2 as detailed in our dashboard that details the expected return for the S&P 500 after a rise or drop.
Try the Trefis machine learning engine above to see for yourself how the forecast for The Trade Desk stock is likely to change after any specific gain or loss over a period.
Question 2: Does patience pay?
Answer:
If you buy and hold The Trade Desk stock, the expectation is over time the near-term fluctuations will cancel out, and the long-term positive trend will favor you – at least if the company is otherwise strong.
Overall, according to data and Trefis machine learning engine’s calculations, patience absolutely pays for most stocks!
For TTD stock, the returns over the next N days after a -5% change over the last five trading days is detailed in the table below, along with the returns for the S&P500:
Question 3: What about the stock price forecast after a rise if you wait for a while?
Answer:
The expected return after a rise is understandably lower than after a drop as detailed in the previous question. Interestingly, though, if a stock has gained over the last few days, you would do better to avoid short-term bets for most stocks – although TTD stock appears to be an exception to this general observation.
TTD’s returns over the next N days after a 5% change over the last five trading days is detailed in the table below, along with the returns for the S&P500:
It’s pretty powerful to test the trend for yourself for The Trade Desk stock by changing the inputs in the charts above.
While Trade Desk stock is likely to move higher in the near term, there are several peers in its sector that look like a Better Bet Than TTD stock. Also, TradeDesk Peer Comparisons summarizes how the company fares against peers on metrics that matter.
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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