[Updated: November 18, 2021] SAVA Stock Plunges
The stock price of Cassava Sciences (NASDAQ: SAVA) plunged 23% yesterday after a report that the U.S. SEC is investigating the company over allegations of data manipulation for its experimental Alzheimer’s treatment – Simufilam. SAVA stock saw a large fall in September following a citizen petition filed to halt the trials for Simufilam alleging data manipulation. However, in the first week of November, the company in a press release stated that a review conducted by The Journal of Neuroscience found no evidence of data manipulation and it supported Simufilam as a treatment for Alzheimer’s disease. This led to a stellar 2x rally from levels of $46 on November 1 to $91 on November 5 in SAVA stock. But the rally wasn’t sustained and the stock fell to levels of $62 on November 16. Yesterday’s report of the SEC investigating claims of Simufilam data manipulation resulted in even lower levels of $47.
Now, is SAVA stock poised to see even lower levels or is a rise imminent? Based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years, there is a higher chance of a fall in SAVA stock in the near term, implying that the stock is best avoided for now. See our analysis on Cassava Sciences Stock Return for more details.
So, if this follows historical performance, it is likely that SAVA stock will fall to even lower levels going forward. That said, any positive development around Simufilam can again result in a strong rebound for Cassava stock. Also, Cassava Sciences Stock Return summarizes SAVA stock performance and chances of its rise or decline, among other metrics that matter.
1D: SAVA -24%, vs. S&P500 -0.2%; Underperformed market
(Extremely rare event)
- Cassava Sciences stock dropped 24% on 11/17/2021, compared to broader market (S&P500) drop of 0.2%
- A change of -24% or more over 1 trading day is an extremely rare event, which has occurred 14 times out of 2516 in the last 10 years
5D: SAVA -32%, vs. S&P500 1%; Underperformed market
(2% likelihood event; 43% probability of rise over next 5 days)
- Cassava Sciences stock declined 32% over the last five trading days (one week), compared to broader market (S&P500) rise of 1.0%
- A change of -32% or more over five trading days (one week) is a 2% likelihood event, which has occurred 49 times out of 2515 in the last 10 years
- Of these 49 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 21 occasions
This points to only a 43% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days
10D: SAVA -17%, vs. S&P500 0.7%; Underperformed market
(8% likelihood event; 48% probability of rise over next 10 days)
- Cassava Sciences stock declined 17% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to broader market (S&P500) rise of 0.7%
- A change of -17% or more over ten trading days is a 8% likelihood event, which has occurred 205 times out of 2515 in the last 10 years
- Of these 205 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 98 occasions
This points to only a 48% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days
[Updated: September 27, 2021] Cassava Sciences Stock Rise
Last month we discussed that Cassava Sciences stock (NASDAQ: SAVA), based on historical performance, is likely to see lower levels after it plunged 24% in a week following a citizen petition filed to halt the trials for Simufilam – Cassava’s promising candidate for the treatment of Alzheimer’s disease. The stock fell to levels of around $42 on Sep 14, compared to levels of $58 seen toward the end of August. However, the stock has now rallied to levels of $62 currently, and it is up 28% over the last five trading days. The recent rise can be attributed to positive interim data for Simufilam from a study funded by the National Institutes of Health. The data showed that 68% of the patients suffering with mild to moderate Alzheimer’s showed improvement with Simufilam. Given that SAVA stock corrected from levels north of $140 earlier this year to just $42 in September, investors welcomed the recent positive development.
But now that SAVA stock has seen a 28% move over the last month or so, will it continue its upward trajectory, or is a fall imminent? According to the Trefis Machine Learning Engine, which identifies trends in the company’s stock price using ten years of historical data, returns for SAVA stock average a solid 22% in the next one-month (twenty-one trading days) period after experiencing a 28% rise over the previous week (five trading days), implying that the rally in SAVA stock is far from over, going by its historical performance. But how would the returns fare if you are interested in holding Cassava stock for a shorter or a longer time period? You can test the answer and many other combinations on the Trefis Machine Learning Engine to test Cassava Sciences Stock Price Forecast. You can test the chance of recovery over different time intervals of a quarter, month, or even just 1 day!
So, if this follows historical performance, it is likely that SAVA stock will continue to rise going forward. Also, Cassava Stock Return summarizes SAVA stock performance and chances of its rise or decline, among other metrics that matter.
[Updated: August 26, 2021] Cassava Sciences Stock Decline
The stock price of Cassava Sciences (NASDAQ: SAVA), a clinical stage biotechnology company focused on treatment for Alzheimer’s disease, has seen a large 31% decline in a single trading session on Aug 25. SAVA stock has had a volatile ride over the last year or so, and despite yesterday’s fall, the stock is actually up a massive 2435% over the last twelve-month period. Much of this rise can be attributed to its investigational drug – Simufilam – for the treatment of Alzheimer’s disease moving to late stage clinical trials. The investor interest in SAVA stock rose after the U.S. FDA approved Biogen’s Aduhelm for the treatment of Alzheimer’s disease a few months back.
However, recently the U.S. FDA has received a citizen petition to halt the clinical studies for Simufilam, stating that Cassava is relying on a single academic laboratory for positive data, alleging that some of its results show signs of data manipulation. While the company has denied these allegations, this development surely didn’t sit well with the investors. But will SAVA stock continue its downward trajectory over the coming weeks, or is a recovery in the stock imminent?
According to the Trefis Machine Learning Engine, which identifies trends in the company’s stock price using ten years of historical data, returns for SAVA stock average around -0.4% in the next one-month (twenty-one trading days) period after experiencing a 24% drop over the previous week (five trading days), implying that the stock is best avoided for now. Also, the company doesn’t have any marketable product yet. For Cassava, the entire growth story primarily revolves around the success of Simufilam. Now, the allegations made against the company are concerning and the stock is already trading at over 1000% gains year-to-date, so it may be best to wait for this story to play out before considering buying this dip.
How would the returns fare if you are interested in holding SAVA stock for a shorter or a longer time period? You can test the answer and many other combinations on the Trefis Machine Learning Engine to test Cassava Sciences stock chances of a rise after a fall. You can test the chance of recovery over different time intervals of a quarter, month, or even just 1 day!
Some Fun Scenarios, FAQs & Making Sense of Cassava Sciences Stock Movements:
Question 1: Is the average return for Cassava Sciences stock higher after a drop?
Answer: Consider two situations,
Case 1: Cassava Sciences stock drops by -5% or more in a week
Case 2: Cassava Sciences stock rises by 5% or more in a week
Is the average return for Cassava Sciences stock higher over the subsequent month after Case 1 or Case 2?
SAVA stock fares better after Case 2, with an average return of 4.7% over the next month (21 trading days) under Case 1 (where the stock has just suffered a 5% loss over the previous week), versus, an average return of 18.3% for Case 2.
In comparison, the S&P 500 has an average return of 3.1% over the next 21 trading days under Case 1, and an average return of just 0.5% for Case 2 as detailed in our dashboard that details the average return for the S&P 500 after a fall or rise.
Try the Trefis machine learning engine above to see for yourself how Cassava Sciences stock is likely to behave after any specific gain or loss over a period.
Question 2: Does patience pay?
Answer: If you buy and hold Cassava Sciences stock, the expectation is over time the near-term fluctuations will cancel out, and the long-term positive trend will favor you – at least if the company is otherwise strong.
Overall, according to data and Trefis machine learning engine’s calculations, patience absolutely pays for most stocks!
For SAVA stock, the returns over the next N days after a -5% change over the last five trading days is detailed in the table below, along with the returns for the S&P500:
You can try the engine to see what this table looks like for Cassava Sciences after a larger loss over the last week, month, or quarter.
Question 3: What about the average return after a rise if you wait for a while?
Answer: The average return after a rise is understandably lower than after a fall as detailed in the previous question. Interestingly, though, if a stock has gained over the last few days, you would do better to avoid short-term bets for most stocks – although SAVA stock appears to be an exception to this general observation.
It’s pretty powerful to test the trend for yourself for Cassava Sciences stock by changing the inputs in the charts above.
[Updated: June 21, 2021] SAVA Stock Rise
The stock price of Cassava Sciences (NASDAQ: SAVA), a clinical stage biotechnology company focused on treatment for Alzheimer’s disease, has seen a massive 66% rise over the last twenty-one trading days, while it is up a whopping 10x year-to-date, rising from levels of around $7 at the beginning of the year to nearly $80 currently. Much of this rally came in the month of February, after the company announced positive end of the phase two meeting with the U.S. FDA for Simufilam, a treatment for Alzheimer’s disease. The company will now advance to phase three trials for Simufilam. This is a big step for the company, and if successful, Simufilam can garner multi-billion dollars in peak sales.
Several pharmaceuticals stocks that have exposure to any Alzheimer’s drug in their pipeline, have seen a rise over the last month or so. This can be attributed to the U.S. FDA’s recently approving Biogen’s Aduhelm for the treatment of Alzheimer’s disease, and now investors are cheering other pharmaceuticals stocks over potential approvals for Alzheimer’s drugs. Note that Biogen’s Aduhelm is the first new drug being approved for Alzheimer’s in the last twenty years. Alzheimer’s is a large market with over 35 million patients worldwide, and with only one approved treatment currently, there is a massive scope for other players.
Cassava will start its phase three trials later this year, and so far it has demonstrated better results compared to some of the other Alzheimer’s drugs in clinical trials, with Simufilam being the only drug to exhibit cognitive benefits at six months, and it could be the first drug to show cognitive benefits at nine months, therefore the rally in SAVA stock to some extent makes sense. Casaava will present its nine months data at the Alzheimer’s Association International Conference later next month.
However, now that SAVA stock has seen a rise of 66% in twenty-one trading days, will it continue its upward trajectory, or is a fall imminent? Going by historical performance, there is a higher chance of a decline in SAVA stock over the next month. Out of 105 instances in the last ten years that Cassava stock saw a twenty-one day rise of 66% or more, 71 of them resulted in SAVA stock falling over the subsequent one month period (twenty-one trading days). This historical pattern reflects 71 out of 105, or about 68% chance of a decline in SAVA stock over the coming month. Also, the stock has seen a large rally in a short period of time, and it may be prudent for long-term investors to wait for a dip to buy SAVA stock. See our analysis on Cassava Sciences Stock Chances of Decline for more details.
Twenty-One Days: SAVA 66%, vs. S&P500 1.1%; Outperformed market
(4% likelihood event; 32% probability of rise over next 21 days)
See Cassava Sciences (SAVA) Stock Return: AI Predicts SAVA Average and Excess Return After a Fall or Rise
- Cassava Sciences stock rose 66% the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to broader market (S&P500) rise of 1.1%
- A change of 66% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 4% likelihood event, which has occurred 105 times out of 2515 in the last 10 years
- Of these 105 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 34 occasions
- This points to only a 32% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days
Ten Days: SAVA 24%, vs. S&P500 -1.7%; Outperformed market
(8% likelihood event; 49% probability of rise over next 10 days)
- Cassava Sciences stock rose 24% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to broader market (S&P500) decline of 1.7%
- A change of 24% or more over ten trading days is a 8% likelihood event, which has occurred 195 times out of 2517 in the last 10 years
- Of these 195 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 96 occasions
- This points to a 49% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days
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