A-levels: How did Gavin Williamson survive exams U-turn?

The profession aspirations of many youngsters have been delivered a blow final week when 40% of A stage leads to England have been downgraded from academics’ assessments.

So why are the profession prospects of Gavin Williamson – the schooling secretary who presided over what even some often supportive newspapers have described as a “farce” or a “humiliation” – not in tatters?

It isn’t just a few college students, academics and fogeys who’re scratching their heads over this query – however some Conservative MPs too.

Considered one of them stated to me: “Any minister who makes kids cry will not be in a superb place.”

One other identified that he had loads of time to arrange for the way college students ought to be assessed – exams have been cancelled 5 months in the past, on 18 March.

But Downing Road maintains the prime minister has full confidence in Gavin Williamson.

Why?

One purpose is that he has a “human defend,” within the type of England’s examination regulator, Ofqual.

Proper questions, flawed solutions?

The case for the Williamson defence is, basically, that he was asking the fitting questions of the regulator however was getting the flawed solutions.

It ought to be stated that it was the schooling secretary himself who determined in March that he didn’t wish to see “grade inflation” because of academics’ assessments – and that this yr’s outcomes must be “moderated” or “standardised”.

Mr Williamson claims that the precept of “moderation” was broadly accepted – and that in additional regular instances there would all the time be pupils who failed to fulfill academics’ expectations in actual exams.

The Division for Schooling argues that there was additionally widespread session over the factors Ofqual would deploy when standardising the grades.

So the one concern was how that standardisation can be carried out somewhat than any debate over whether or not it was proper in precept.

Alarm bells

Alarm bells concerning the results of standardisation have been loudly rung by the cross-party schooling committee – beneath the chairmanship of Conservative MP Rob Halfon – on 11 July.

Committee members referred to as for extra transparency over the algorithm Ofqual was utilizing to standardise grades – and demanded that or not it’s revealed instantly to permit for correct scrutiny.

The algorithm was not made public till final Thursday.

The committee additionally warned that Ofqual’s mannequin “doesn’t seem to incorporate any mechanism to determine whether or not teams equivalent to Black and Minority Ethnic (BAME), Free Faculty Meal eligible pupils, kids taken care of, and pupils with particular academic wants have been systematically deprived by calculated grades”.

Gavin Williamson’s allies say he took these considerations significantly.

Colleges minister Nick Gibb and schooling division officers met the senior figures at Ofqual on 16 July and pressed for clarification on how the algorithm would impression pupils from deprived backgrounds and from ethnic minority communities.

Officers preserve that the proper questions have been requested and that they obtained assurances that these from deprived backgrounds wouldn’t be adversely affected.

One insider stated that the schooling secretary can probe Ofqual on its strategies however cannot, after all, design an algorithm himself.

However Mr Williamson was conscious that the algorithm’s use was more likely to throw up “onerous instances” and “outliers” – somewhat than plenty of scholars – who wouldn’t get the grades they deserved.

So the schooling secretary focussed on bettering the appeals system and, in the end, making certain that it was free to make use of, officers say.

Ofqual have but to reply to inquiries concerning the assembly.

An interesting system?

In its July report, the schooling committee stated: ‘We’re extraordinarily involved that pupils would require proof of bias or discrimination to lift a criticism about their grades.

“It’s unrealistic and unfair to place the onus on pupils to have, or to have the ability to collect, proof of bias or discrimination. Such a system additionally favours extra prosperous pupils and households with sources and information of the system.”

Schooling division insiders preserve that Mr Williamson – who went to a complete faculty – was decided to inject equity in to the system and create a strong (considered one of his favorite phrases) security internet to catch anybody caught out by the system.

Certainly, there was nonetheless wrangling occurring between Ofqual and the division as not too long ago as final weekend over additional modifications to the method.

Ofqual steering on the way to enchantment was faraway from its web site round eight hours after it first appeared.

They usually say that it turned obvious solely prior to now few days that the appeals system, nevertheless “sturdy”, couldn’t cope with the potential scale of the issue.

Class battle

Final Tuesday, the Scottish authorities needed to carry out a U-turn beneath strain.

An evaluation by Ofqual’s Scottish equal – the SQA – confirmed that pupils from disadvantaged backgrounds have been subjected to increased charges of downgrading than those that have been better-off.

Scottish schooling secretary John Swinney insisted that the SQA standardisation mannequin was honest – however that he was now transferring to trainer assessments due to the “anguish” some pupils had skilled.

• How did John Swinney survive the varsity outcomes row?

Gavin Williamson’s allies say that he sought assurances from Ofqual that the issues the Scottish system had highlighted wouldn’t have an effect on England – and, as soon as once more, he obtained assurances that this was the case.

Solely when the outcomes got here out on Thursday did the end result start to look somewhat too acquainted.

Initially, it was assumed there have been somewhat plenty of “outliers” and solely subsequently was it established that the algorithm itself was flawed.

Over the weekend, there was an inside debate on the DfE over whether or not the algorithm could possibly be improved, or whether or not academics’ assessments must be accepted in any case.

Neither resolution was ultimate.

What appears to have swung it’s that fixing the algorithm would have led to a delay to this week’s GCSE’s outcomes.

This was not one thing Downing Road wished to see.

I am advised that by the point the schooling secretary and the prime minister spoke – by telephone – on Monday morning, they have been, metaphorically a minimum of, “in the identical place”.

It must be trainer assessments because the least worst choice, and the announcement can be made later that day.

The case for the prosecution

What’s irritating some Conservative MPs will not be the U-turn itself, however the time it took to place into motion.

Some privately accuse the schooling secretary of not being sturdy sufficient in interrogating Ofqual earlier within the course of.

Some surprise why affords from the Royal Statistical Society to assist with the modelling in April weren’t accepted.

However what’s agitating a lot of the schooling secretary’s inside critics is that it took almost every week for the U-turn in Scotland to be repeated in England.

They really feel Gavin Williamson dug himself in to a gap by denouncing so strongly the actions of the Scottish authorities, highlighting the “unfairness” of taking academics’ predictions solely as the idea for outcomes.

This was, arguably, a failure of the schooling secretary’s political antennae.

Even when the Ofqual algorithm didn’t discriminate towards probably the most deprived, it ought to have been attainable, critics preserve, to anticipate that the protests and parades of disenchanted college students in Scotland can be repeated in England, given {that a} related scale of downgrading was to happen.

The notion {that a} authorities dedicated to “levelling up” the nation was downgrading vibrant college students from underperforming faculties was poisonous.

And a few MPs are questioning why, within the Instances, as not too long ago as Saturday Gavin Williamson was praising what was “a good and sturdy system for the overwhelming majority of scholars”.

And declaring there can be “no U-turn, no change”.

And on Sunday, when inside debates over accepting academics’ assessments and abandoning the choice of fixing the algorithm have been very energetic – why was he apparently defending “the calculated grade overseen by Ofqual”, within the Specific newspaper.

A former minister with a background in schooling advised me that as a result of the schooling secretary had nailed his colors so firmly to a teetering mast, it was “inevitable” that he must go.

However it appears nothing is inevitable in politics.

Boris Johnson himself will not be seen as devoid of blame by a few of his personal MPs.

Final Thursday, the prime minister was additionally defending the “sturdy” system of evaluation in England.

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As one MP put it, “the captain of the ship was too palms off”.

Certainly – for some – that captain modified path as if he have been on the bridge of an oil tanker, when what was required was the swift launching of the lifeboats.

How protected is Williamson’s job?

One former Conservative minister stated he totally expects Gavin Williamson to be moved in any autumn reshuffle – that he has been given a reprieve by Downing Road, not exoneration.

He has to kind out the messy problem of getting newly upgraded college students in to universities then the tough activity of getting pupils in England again to highschool subsequent month.

The partial return previous to the summer time wasn’t precisely easy.

So if Mr Williamson’s efficiency in these areas falls quick, then his present job will not be protected in the long run.

However there are different explanation why he hasn’t obtained a ministerial P45.

This isn’t an administration which does resignations.

Boris Johnson is loyal to those that are loyal and helpful to him.

The clamour amongst Conservative backbenchers for his adviser Dominic Cummings to go over his lockdown journey to Durham subsided as Downing St dug in its heels.

The controversy over the Richard Desmond planning resolution has not price housing secretary Robert Jenrick his job.

And Gavin Williamson has been useful to Boris Johnson behind the scenes – as he was to Theresa Could till he was sacked, and acquired behind Mr Johnson’s management bid.

A former chief whip, his popularity as a minister might have suffered however not his talents as a fixer.

No 10 might wish to retain him contained in the tent.

However he additionally has some cowl within the present controversy.

He U-turned – however so too did the SNP administration in Edinburgh, the Labour-led administration in Cardiff and the power-sharing DUP/Sinn Fein government in Belfast.

As is necessary in instances of private disaster, he’s not alone.

The query is whether or not the exams saga has predominantly dented Mr Williamson’s credibility – or that of the whole authorities.

With a majority of eighty and doubtless 4 years till the subsequent election, that is not a query to which Boris Johnson wants a direct reply.