There’s a recurring and vital phrase within the 36-page doc printed this morning setting out “the UK’s strategy to negotiations with the European Union”.
It’s: “these provisions shouldn’t be topic to the Settlement’s dispute decision mechanism outlined in Chapter 32”.
What this represents is an unambiguous and seemingly non-negotiable rejection by Boris Johnson’s Authorities of a requirement from the EU that any free-trade take care of the UK ought to embody what it calls “stage enjoying area” provisions.
The EU says that for the UK to have a free commerce take care of the EU involving zero tariffs and nil limits on how a lot might be traded between the UK and EU, there should be legally enforceable restrictions on the UK’s freedom to diverge from the EU on staff’ rights, taxation, subsidies to enterprise and environmental protections.
Boris Johnson’s riposte is that there needs to be a proper to seek the advice of one another on any of those points that “may be thought-about to hurt the pursuits of the events”.
However, and to repeat, that session dedication “shouldn’t be topic to the Settlement’s dispute decision mechanism”.
In different phrases, Johnson is saying he won’t sacrifice any of the UK’s rights to self-determine on tax, subsidies, staff rights and so forth as the appropriate worth of a free commerce deal.
For him, any commerce deal that will contain the UK being bossed round by a supranational disputes decision physique on tax, staff rights and many others would negate the entire level of Brexit.
You could or might not assume he’s proper about this, however he’s clear about it (and by the way in which, what this reveals is that Steve Baker was proper earlier this week when he mentioned he was resigning as chairman of the ultra-eurosceptic European Analysis Group as a result of he and the ERG had received the argument).
This leaves the EU with a easy and rapid choice: is it value sticking to the agreed timetable of negotiating on this foundation and taking inventory on the finish of June; or wouldn’t it be much better to maneuver instantly to talks on what Boris Johnson describes as his fallback place, of buying and selling with the EU on the identical foundation as Australia, an association the place the principles of the World Commerce Organisation largely apply and there are plentiful tariffs on commerce flows?
There may be an argument that what Boris Johnson has achieved right now is give enterprise a ten-month warning to organize for the equal of a no-deal Brexit on 1 January 2021. What with coronavirus too, the Authorities and companies ignore at their peril a colossal quantity of sophisticated and dear contingency planning.
Robert Peston is ITV’s political editor. This text initially appeared on his ITV information blog