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For the previous few years, volatility in British politics has appeared the brand new regular.
However barring unexpected occasions, it seems to be probably Boris Johnson shall be in residence in Downing Road till 2024, a minimum of.
The Conservatives’ resounding election victory has given him actual political authority, however the challenges dealing with him are additionally appreciable.
What are the important thing selections that might come to outline the Johnson years?
HS2: Will it go forward or be stopped it in its tracks?
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Reuters
The destiny of the UK’s largest infrastructure challenge is hanging within the stability.
Boris Johnson should quickly determine whether or not HS2 will go full steam forward, be scaled again or cancelled fully. His selection – in addition to the federal government’s broader prescription for the UK’s faltering rail community – will say quite a bit about his imaginative and prescient for post-Brexit Britain.
The thought of a high-speed rail hyperlink connecting London, the West Midlands and the North of England is a long-held dream for its supporters. For its detractors, the gargantuan challenge – at present estimated to price between £81bn and £88bn – has turn into the stuff of nightmares.
The PM has a political tightrope to stroll, in addition to a enterprise determination to make.
Can he fulfill Tory activists within the eye of the route who’re vociferously opposed, in addition to his new cohort of MPs within the Midlands, Yorkshire and Better Manchester who desperately need higher native providers and extra funding?
The PM has despatched various indicators to this point, insisting prices can not proceed to spiral whereas additionally hinting that, temperamentally, he’s in favour of a scheme that might assist rebalance the UK’s lopsided financial system and tackle regional disparities.
There are two reviews sitting on his desk – a evaluate of the challenge by Doug Oakervee, more likely to advocate it goes forward just about as deliberate, and a dissenting view from his deputy, Lord Berkeley, which warns of mounting costs and delays unless it is completely redesigned.
If it does proceed, HS2 trains might probably be operating on the primary part of the road by 2029. This, if he was nonetheless in energy, can be the tenth anniversary of Mr Johnson changing into PM.
The union: Will there be one other Scottish independence referendum?
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Boris Johnson and Nicola Sturgeon are on a collision course.
The SNP chief has her coronary heart set on one other Scottish independence referendum and the prime minister is decided to thwart her, or a minimum of, postpone the day of reckoning for so long as attainable.
The prime minister has rejected a request from Scotland’s first minister for the required powers, referred to as a Part 30 order, to carry one other vote on the union.
He says all sides agreed earlier than the 2014 referendum, which resulted in a transparent No vote, that it was a “as soon as in a era” occasion. The choice taken by the Scottish individuals then have to be upheld, he insists.
Finish of story? Effectively, not fairly. Independence is the SNP’s central driving power and Ms Sturgeon believes she has the wind in her sails after her social gathering did higher than anticipated within the normal election.
She has stated she is going to contemplate her subsequent steps however as soon as the UK has left the EU on 31 January – a Brexit which Scotland didn’t vote for – she is more likely to step up the strain on Downing Road.
She has, to this point, dominated out Scotland following the instance of Catalonia and holding a referendum with out Westminster’s settlement. However different choices, together with some type of authorized problem or getting the Scottish Parliament to symbolically legislate itself for a referendum, stay open.
The final word showdown might nicely be delayed till Might 2021, when Ms Sturgeon will hope to win a direct electoral mandate for one more referendum by getting a majority in Holyrood elections.
If that transpired, might Mr Johnson proceed to face in her method? Or will he find yourself taking the identical calculated gamble as David Cameron {that a} unionist victory may settle the problem for good?
Social care: Will there be a long-term repair or extra delay?
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Science Picture Library
Can Boris Johnson succeed the place his two predecessors failed and discover a lasting, inexpensive resolution to funding take care of the aged?
Supporting the rising variety of individuals dwelling longer however with power situations is a big problem, and one which, regardless of political good will and the work of…