Liberal Democrats: Is concentrating on the ‘yellow halo’ key to get together’s success?

The election of a brand new Liberal Democrat chief in lower than a month’s time will mark one other watershed second for the get together.

The get together’s 120,000 or so members, who will begin voting on Thursday, have a alternative between appearing chief and former cupboard minister Sir Ed Davey and rising star Layla Moran.

Whoever wins will grow to be the fourth everlasting Lib Dem chief prior to now 5 years and take over a celebration nonetheless re-grouping after being chastened on the poll field for the third election in a row.

After a Cease Brexit election marketing campaign described afterwards by the get together as a “automotive crash”, the Lib Dems ended up with 11 MPs in December, one fewer than in 2017, and and not using a chief after Jo Swinson’s defeat.

Regardless of her finest efforts, and people of her predecessors Vince Cable and Tim Farron, the get together has but to actually recuperate – in electoral phrases – from its trouncing in 2015 after 5 years in authorities with the Conservatives.

Ms Moran has mentioned it’s “sink or swim” time for the get together after “10 years of decline” and it wants to revive “belief and credibility” with voters nonetheless indignant about its document in authorities in addition to its opposition to Brexit.

However Sir Ed, who served as vitality secretary beneath David Cameron, mentioned there have been no “fast fixes” for the get together and it needed to rebuild from the ground-up.

A brand new examine by assume tank UK in a Altering Europe – entitled What Subsequent For the Lib Dems? – warns that their present electoral place would possibly presumably be pretty much as good because it will get for what used to often called the “third get together” in British politics.

‘Danger of paralysis’

The influential analysis physique says the get together’s post-2015 ranges of illustration within the Commons – which excluding defections have ranged from eight to 13 – bear a transparent resemblance to these achieved by the previous Liberal Get together within the 1950s via to the 1970s, and threat changing into the “new regular”.

“In brief, whereas they might escape extinction, long-term paralysis seems like a definite risk,” say the report’s authors, Professor Tim Bale, Aron Cheung and Dr Alan Wager.

Ms Swinson’s shock defeat in East Dunbartonshire was one other painful reminder for the get together that – not like the Conservatives and Labour – it doesn’t have any secure seats in Westminster.

However the analysis additionally hints at a extra promising outlook for the Lib Dems than the headline numbers recommend and grounds for optimism for whoever wins the management contest.

Because the authors put it, the “new electoral geography of the post-Brexit period” presents alternatives in addition to challenges for the get together and the makings of a “new electoral coalition” that might convey it future success.

The subsequent chief, it says, has a “real alternative to develop the get together as soon as once more in the event that they make the suitable strategic calls”.

The get together, it says, ought to draw encouragement from its 2019 outcome, which confirmed it had grow to be politically aggressive in additional locations than in 2017 and in new areas of the nation as nicely.

The Lib Dems completed second in 91 seats final yr – greater than twice as many as in 2017, because the get together got here from a mile behind to leapfrog Labour in lots of constituencies.

Whereas the get together is nowhere close to its 2010 ranges of assist, when it received greater than 30% of the vote in 140 seats, it’s inside “cheap touching distance” of successful many extra seats subsequent time round.

‘Southern get together’

Simply as considerably, lots of these goal seats are concentrated in areas of England the place the get together has struggled prior to now.

The previous south-west of England heartland constructed by former chief Paddy Ashdown has been changed by a brand new “yellow halo of electoral energy” – stretching from south-west London and japanese Surrey to Oxfordshire, Hampshire and Cambridgeshire.

Each Ed Davey and Layla Moran are based mostly on this space and it contains conventional targets, akin to Wimbledon Guildford and Winchester, in addition to seats by no means held by the get together, akin to Esher and Walton, Woking and Wantage.

Whereas the Lib Dems stay a pressure throughout a lot of Scotland, which accounts for a 3rd of their Westminster seats, in England they’ve “clearly grow to be a extra southern get together” prior to now decade, the report says.

The get together is struggling to make headway within the huge Northern cities and cities like Burnley, Redcar and Rochdale the place they as soon as had MPs.

However, on the flip facet, this southern bias could assist the get together to pursue a “core vote” strategy on the subsequent election – which some Lib Dem strategists have lengthy believed is one of the simplest ways to win and retain seats.

Concentrating on the graduate vote could possibly be essential, it argues, given the hanging correlation between the energy of Lib Dem assist and ranges of instructional attainment within the “yellow halo”.

Nearly all of the get together’s seats and future targets are within the high 50% when it comes to the variety of graduates dwelling there, whereas it both holds or is a detailed second in 30% of the 64 seats within the high ten of relative graduate numbers.

These voters, the report argues, might probably propel the Lib Dems to victory in a bunch of seats subsequent time round, the vast majority of that are held by the Conservatives.

However this technique presupposes that this group’s dislike of the Conservatives, fuelled by Brexit, and mistrust of Labour, exacerbated by Jeremy Corbyn’s management, stays a decisive issue come the following election in 2024.

Relations with Labour

As Sir Keir Starmer seeks to re-position his get together, the previous fault line throughout the Lib Dems concerning the scope for co-operation with Labour is more likely to open up once more.

Each management candidates have mentioned the Lib Dems should be a “progressive different” to the 2 fundamental events and retain a particular identification, whether or not over Europe, the surroundings or identification politics.

Ms Moran mentioned speak of a proper alliance with Labour was untimely, whereas the vast majority of its MPs have been against electoral reform for UK elections.

However she instructed the 2 events might work collectively to maximise the non-Conservative vote on the subsequent election, with Labour campaigning much less “vociferously” in seats the place her get together have been the principle challengers.

However the reminiscences of the coalition years imply any try to resurrect the Ashdown and Charles Kennedy-era coverage of so-called equidistance between the 2 fundamental events is more likely to show onerous.

After which there are the essential realities of the electoral map.

The report factors out that there are simply 9 seats in the whole nation the place Lib Dems are the important thing challengers to Labour, whereas there are not any Lib Dem MPs whose fundamental electoral menace comes from Sir Keir Starmer’s get together.

Whereas the substances are in place for a “symbiotic” relationship with Labour nationally, the report warns too cosy a relationship might result in a backlash regionally, the place for a lot of Lib Dem councillors Labour stay the principle enemy.

“All politics is native, however…Liberal Democrat politics is extra native than most,” the report concludes.

“For a few of them, the constructing of some type of progressive alliance nationally can be far decrease down their record of priorities than taking over and beating Labour regionally.”