Rise in full-time feminine staff boosts employment

A document variety of girls in full-time work has pushed the UK’s employment charge to a brand new excessive of 76.3%, the latest figures from the Office for National Statistics show.

Within the three months to November, 126,000 extra girls labored full-time in contrast with the earlier quarter.

The rise is partially due to the change in girls’s retirement age.

The information might have an effect on the Financial institution of England’s choice over whether or not to chop rates of interest subsequent week.

A document 32.9 million persons are in employment within the UK, an increase of 0.5% for the three months to November.

“The employment charge is at a brand new document excessive, with over two-thirds of the expansion in individuals in work within the final 12 months coming from girls working full-time,” mentioned ONS head of labour market and households, David Freeman.

“Self-employment has additionally been rising strongly, and the variety of individuals working for themselves has now handed 5 million for the primary time ever,” he mentioned.

The unemployment charge was barely modified at 3.8%.

Nevertheless, the variety of estimated job vacancies fell to 805,000, a drop of 11,000 in comparison with the earlier quarter and 49,000 fewer than a 12 months earlier, undermining the commonly robust image of the labour market.

The change within the retirement age for ladies from 60 to 65 implies that many are staying within the workforce for longer.

Nevertheless, the variety of working-age girls in employment was additionally boosted by fewer girls remaining economically inactive to care for kids and different kin.

Jing Teow, economist at PwC, mentioned the general image was comparatively optimistic.

“Nevertheless, there are different indicators that the labour market is coming off the boil. Emptiness ranges stay excessive, however have been on a common decline since early 2019,” she mentioned.

“Wage progress has edged barely decrease from 3.5% to three.4% for normal pay, however nonetheless effectively above inflation, which ought to proceed to help client spending. These indicators seem broadly in keeping with the weaker-than-expected GDP readings for November final 12 months.”

Unemployment is likely one of the closely-watched metrics that information the Financial institution of England in deciding whether or not to lift or decrease rates of interest.

Reporting that the variety of jobs has hit a brand new document as of late is like reporting again within the 1990s that inventory markets had hit a document excessive. It hardly appears like information as a result of it occurs virtually each time the figures come out.

At present’s jobs figures, nevertheless, had been surprisingly upbeat. What with the official estimates final week displaying an financial system that was barely rising – certainly, shrinking in November – the markets had anticipated maybe 100,000 new jobs to be generated. As an alternative it was greater than 200,000.

Equally, the comparatively wholesome progress in pay was anticipated to gradual. It did, however solely slightly – down from 3.5% to three.4% excluding bonuses. After taking inflation under consideration, that is nonetheless a pay rise of 1.8%. Maintain your breath: some day quickly (however not but) the typical employee will likely be incomes greater than they did in March 2008 earlier than the monetary crash.

All of that, nevertheless, will not be sufficient to offset the opposite information pointing to a slowdown. Markets nonetheless count on, with a 65% chance, that the Financial institution of England will lower the official rate of interest subsequent week, again all the way down to 0.5%, to attempt to counter the chance that the present financial slowdown morphs into one thing extra critical.

Thomas Pugh, at Capital Economics, mentioned the “strong” employment information could be prone to nudge policymakers away from a charge lower at subsequent week’s Financial Coverage Committee assembly.

“It’s price noting that the MPC has mentioned that it’s giving extra weight than regular to the situation of the labour market to assist it decide how a lot slack there may be within the financial system,” he mentioned.

“The rebound in employment and barely softer pay progress will give the MPC one more reason to not lower charges from 0.75% to 0.50% at their subsequent assembly on 30th January. Nevertheless, we expect that the essential piece of knowledge for the MPC would be the flash PMIs [manufacturing data] on 24 January, which is able to affirm, or refute, any ‘Boris bounce’ within the financial system.”