Scottish examination outcomes: What are the choices for fixing the system?

First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has admitted her authorities “didn’t get it proper” with the system used to provide grades for Scottish college pupils. Schooling Secretary John Swinney will announce his plans to sort out the issue on Tuesday – however what are his choices, and can they save him from a no-confidence vote at Holyrood?

What occurred this 12 months?

With Scotland’s examination weight loss program cancelled for the primary time in historical past as a result of coronavirus pandemic, the Scottish {Qualifications} Authority scrambled to give you a brand new system to calculate outcomes.

The plan was for grades to be primarily based on lecturers’ estimates for every of their particular person pupils, primarily based on every little thing they’d performed throughout the college 12 months.

Lecturers have been additionally requested to rank their college students, and the outcomes have been then fed by means of a nationwide “moderation” system.

This method, which had been created to handle fears that the outcomes wouldn’t be “credible”, in the end noticed about 125,000 of these grades lowered.

The estimates put ahead by lecturers turned out to be far greater than the cross charges for earlier years, and the moderation system sought to carry them again nearer in step with earlier phrases.

The lowered grades sparked an outcry from college students – which was intensified by the assumption that many have been penalised because of how their college had carried out previously. The cross charge of pupils sitting Highers in probably the most disadvantaged areas was lowered by double the speed of these from probably the most prosperous backgrounds.

The federal government initially tried to defend the system, however has now accepted that it “didn’t get it proper” and can make adjustments.

The unique plan might have been to robust it out and watch for the free appeals course of, however that choice has now fallen by the wayside.

Considerations had been rising concerning the quantity of appeals which may very well be submitted, and the way lengthy they might take to course of.

Faculties have loads on their plates attempting to reopen safely in the midst of a pandemic with out having to collect proof for tens of 1000’s of appeals.

Ms Sturgeon has now stated that they won’t count on each scholar to enchantment, and that “the onus shall be on authorities to repair this”.

This implies a reasonably radical departure from the present system is on the playing cards – however what might it’s?

Use trainer grades?

Scottish Labour, who’re pushing for a vote of no confidence within the training secretary, say the grades initially drawn up by lecturers ought to be used for pupils who have been downgraded.

Nonetheless, these grades, taken total, would characterize a major enchancment on earlier years – together with a leap of 20 proportion factors within the cross charge for pupils from probably the most disadvantaged areas.

Ms Sturgeon has beforehand stated such a leap wouldn’t be “credible” and would “run the chance of undermining the integrity of the entire system”.

Nonetheless, the primary minister conspicuously didn’t rule out such a transfer in her newest briefing. She stated it might be a “larger downside” for pupils to conclude that the system is stacked towards them.

She has additionally pledged to not scale back the grades of any scholar who ended up with a higher outcome than instructed by their trainer.

It is a tough bind for the federal government. It does not wish to disappoint pupils or their mother and father, and it does not wish to throw lecturers underneath the bus – even when some may need been considerably optimistic within the grades they’d predicted.

However ministers additionally will not wish to make a rod for their very own again in future years. If the cross charge for 2020 is exceptionally excessive, how can the category of 2021 hope to dwell as much as it?

Use prelim scores?

This concept, initially championed by the Scottish Greens and backed as an choice by the Conservatives, would see the grades pupils achieved of their prelims (or mocks) as a “baseline”.

This may very well be a gorgeous concept, as they’re a available concrete instance of how a pupil performs underneath examination situations. It is usually very straightforward to level to any disparity between the grades the place pupils have been marked down by the system.

Nonetheless, many may also contend that outcomes can change radically within the months between the prelim and the ultimate examination. What if a poor rating within the observe examination was the kick within the behind a scholar wanted to knuckle down for the true factor?

Treating them as a “baseline” would imply some pupils with distinctive coursework, or who had impressed their trainer in school, might nonetheless outperform a poor prelim outcome – however making particular person changes on this stage might show simply as labour-intensive as wading by means of 1000’s of appeals.

Let college students sit exams?

The Scottish Tories have instructed letting college students who’re sad with their grades sit an examination, if they don’t wish to settle for their prelim outcome or the ultimate one.

Though presumably this might see a restricted variety of pupils sit exams, it might nonetheless face the identical sensible downside the unique weight loss program did – coronavirus.

In any case, Ms Sturgeon’s assertion that it’s all the way down to ministers to kind the outcomes out, not college students, suggests there’s little probability of youngsters who thought their college days have been over being herded again into an examination corridor.

Redesign the entire system?

Whereas a short-term repair shall be wanted to move off the rapid storm, Mr Swinney may additionally take an extended view concerning the examination system as a complete.

Ms Sturgeon has mused about what the easiest way of “assessing the efficiency of younger individuals” is likely to be. Is it the results of a one-off examination, or the evaluation of a trainer who screens the pupil throughout a complete 12 months?

The federal government does love a working group, and it might be straightforward to think about some instructional bigwig being tasked with drawing up an in depth report for ministers to think about forward of Might’s Holyrood election.

This might sit properly alongside the OECD overview of the senior section of training, which is because of report again subsequent summer season.

The problem once more could be the implementation – how might a serious reform to how pupils are assessed be phased in whereas sustaining a stage taking part in subject within the {qualifications} of previous and future pupils?

Will it save Mr Swinney?

To begin with, even dropping a confidence vote at Holyrood technically wouldn’t doom the training secretary. In contrast to the federal government as a complete, there is no such thing as a statutory requirement for a minister to go after dropping such a vote – though in actuality the strain on them could be immense.

Ms Sturgeon has absolved the SQA of any blame, making it very clear that the buck stops with ministers.

Having give you the thought, Scottish Labour are more likely to push for a vote towards Mr Swinney no matter what he comes up with. The identical might be true of the Scottish Conservatives.

So his destiny will in the end lie within the arms of the Greens and the Lib Dems, who’re each ready to listen to the element of the assertion.

Ms Sturgeon insists that is “not occasion political”, and that she would look to do proper by college students no matter any looming rebel at Holyrood.

Nonetheless, it’s inescapable that she is a primary minister dealing with an election in Might, and who pegged training and boosting pupils from extra disadvantaged backgrounds as her primary precedence for the present time period of parliament.

If her authorities is seen to have dropped the ball on that very concern, months earlier than voters go to the polls, it may very well be much more than the destiny of Mr Swinney on the road.