UK-Africa summit: Wooing Africa after Brexit

After Brexit, the UK needs to spice up enterprise commerce with Africa, however as a serious UK-Africa enterprise summit begins in London, Matthew Davies asks if there actually will probably be new alternatives for the continent.

Commerce is hard. Commerce agreements are trickier. Commerce negotiations to get these agreements are exponentially extra sophisticated.

And the highway that the Brexit can has been kicked down for therefore lengthy is quickly working out.

As soon as the UK leaves the European Union on the finish of January, it has 11 months to give you a commerce take care of the European Union to keep away from reverting to WTO guidelines.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his Depart supporters have all the time expounded the virtues of being exterior the EU, together with the flexibility to barter its personal commerce offers by itself phrases for the advantages of its personal residents.

Being a part of a giant gang has its benefits and drawbacks.

Sure, you need to make compromises and adapt your targets to match commonly-agreed insurance policies. However you additionally get the ability of the bloc behind you in commerce negotiations.

The place does this go away Africa?

The UK’s Worldwide Growth Secretary, Alok Sharma, is, as one would anticipate, very optimistic saying that Britain’s relations with Africa will probably be “turbo-charged”, with commerce, enterprise and funding offers being struck left, proper and centre.

The UK authorities appears to be taking it significantly.

The UK-Africa Funding Summit could be seen as proof of that however any potential change in precise commerce circumstances is a way off. Presumably years.

What adjustments when Britain exits the EU?

Largely, nothing adjustments on the finish of January.

There will probably be a lot political posturing and speech making, however the UK will nonetheless be a member of the EU Customs Union and Single Market till the tip of the 12 months.

There’s a provision for it to increase that by an additional two years, however that might appear to be dominated out by Prime Minister Johnson.

Which means commerce relations between the UK and Africa keep the identical for 2020, carried out below the EU’s numerous present offers with the continent.

What about after 2020?

Past the 2020 horizon, commerce preparations between many African nations and a fully-Brexited UK are additionally set to stay the identical below quite a lot of “continuity agreements”.

These mainly say that the commerce circumstances (tariffs, quotas, requirements and so forth) stay the identical as they’re presently between quite a lot of African nations and buying and selling blocs and the EU.

For instance, in September final 12 months, the UK initiated an Financial Partnership Settlement with the Southern African Customs Union (Sacu) – which is made up of South Africa, Botswana, Namibia, Lesotho and eSwatini – and Mozambique.

It’s designed to maintain issues as they’re below the present commerce relationship that the southern African nations have with the EU.

It mirrors the settlement that the EU already has with Sacu.

In line with Britain’s Worldwide Commerce Secretary, Liz Truss, the settlement “will permit companies to maintain buying and selling after Brexit with none further boundaries”.

And that appears to be the UK’s method – maintain the identical circumstances in place that exist already between the UK and African nations below EU offers. Worldwide, the UK has in place about 40 such “continuity” offers, protecting some 70 nations.

The UK has been allowed to strike these offers with nations that have already got related agreements with the EU.

Why not change the buying and selling association?

A part of the explanation of doing it this manner is that it permits the UK to barter new preparations with those that would not have an present commerce take care of the EU. The large one right here is the USA.

Sounds easy, nevertheless it’s not.

Not less than, not in the long term due to the uncertainty that’s nonetheless very a lot a part of post-Brexit image.

The “continuity agreements” will finally run out. That is when the true alternatives and challenges for African states will emerge.

Can African nations get a greater deal from the UK?

Exterior the massive EU gang, the UK, technically, has much less negotiating clout.

That might imply that the African nations that commerce with the UK could possibly squeeze out barely extra preferential phrases in negotiations. Maybe.