It is a transcript of a speech Professor Sir John Curtice gave on the Fabian Society convention earlier this morning. Curtice is a number one poll
It is a transcript of a speech Professor Sir John Curtice gave on the Fabian Society convention earlier this morning. Curtice is a number one polling knowledgeable and is presently a professor of politics on the College of Strathclyde.
I believed I’d take as my beginning factors what appears to be the interior debate contained in the occasion about why it ended up the place it did in 2019. Thesis primary: It was Brexit wot did it. Thesis quantity two: it was being too left-wing wot did it.
I’m going to recommend that neither evaluation, by itself, is enough. Let’s begin with Brexit. I imply, there is no such thing as a doubt that Brexit performed an vital position in explaining the change in occasion help between 2017 and 2019 and certainly going again to 2015 as nicely.
Those that voted go away had been more likely to vote for the Conservatives or the Brexit occasion than they’ve been to vote for the Conservatives or UKIP again in 2017. Additionally on the stay aspect, there was a transparent relationship having vote to stay in 2016 and voting for one or different of the events that beneath some sure circumstances, and albeit in considerably other ways, had been in favour of getting a second referendum.
Brexit can also be completely basic understanding the Conservative success as a result of, on the finish of the day, the Conservatives received by consolidating the go away vote. Practically three-quarters of those that voted go away in 2016 voted for the Conservatives as in contrast with figures of round 60 to 65 per cent in 2017. Whereas the stay vote was fragmented. This occasion acquired just below 50 per cent of the stay vote. The Tories nonetheless cling onto 20 per cent, though it was down as in comparison with 2017. And the Liberal Democrats had been choosing up round 20 per cent of the stay vote as nicely.
And, ultimately, the explanation why we’ve got a pro-Brexit authorities just isn’t as a result of a majority of individuals voted in favour of Brexit however due to the differential focus of help. It’s additionally very clear that the sample of motion between 2017 and 2019 could be very clearly associated to individuals’s views on Brexit.
Labour misplaced between 1 / 4 and a 3rd of its go away voters in 2017 to the Conservatives. Equally, it misplaced round a fifth of its stay voters to the Liberal Democrats. So Labour Remainers and Labour Leavers in the event that they had been defecting, had been defecting in very completely different instructions. That is one thing you may solely clarify because of their response to Brexit.
Brexit definitely creates awkward decisions for this occasion. The reality is that on the one hand, it’s predominantly a celebration of stay voters. However in fact, the individuals who voted go away as a bit of the voters to which this occasion thinks it’s its consultant, i.e. that go away voters usually tend to be working class. It additionally causes the issue for this occasion as a result of Brexit just isn’t a left-right challenge.
Individuals who we might classify, on the idea of our responses to survey analysis, as left-wing had been prone to vote for Brexit as had been those that are economically on the proper. Many an individual who voted go away is on the left economically. They don’t like capitalism precisely the identical manner as they don’t like immigration.
So there have been troublesome decisions, however on the finish of the day, Brexit was a difficulty the place it grew to become more and more clear you had to select. It was a topic on which the center floor of politics now not existed. You both needed to be a Remainer or Leaver.
I believe one of many ironies of Jeremy Corbyn’s management is that any individual who was broadly criticised for being too excessive or too radical ultimately arguably crucified his management on the altar of compromise. He was the final particular person standing who wasn’t keen to declare their place on Brexit. That was not one thing that was sustainable given the place we had acquired to by December of final 12 months. In fact, it merely strengthened the notion that was additionally there for different causes, which was an absence of management.
Brexit was an issue. It does create troublesome decisions, however was it dealt with as successfully because it might have been? I believe no. Albeit the occasion would most likely have needed to chunk the bullet on the topic in a manner that it was reluctant to take action. The opposite arguments coming notably, from maybe those that are loosely related to the regime of Tony Blair, is that the programme was too left-wing. The occasion was resurrecting historic insurance policies of nationalisation and it was desirous to restructure a lot of the personal sector and the way in which it was ruled.
The issue with the argument that this positioning was too left-wing, nonetheless, is Have a look at the survey information as to individuals’s attitudes in direction of nationalising utilities, in direction of altering the construction of firm boards, it was really that this was comparatively in style. Sometimes round 50 per cent individuals mentioned they had been in favour. Solely round 1 / 4 was opposed. The free broadband coverage, arguably, was a little bit of a distinct segment market – it younger people and Remainers who fairly favored the thought of free broadband.
Broadly talking,…