Ballot: Most Trump voters don’t see Covid-19 as an vital election problem

A brand new Pew Analysis Middle ballot has discovered a stark partisan distinction in views on the significance of the coronavirus pandemic within the days earlier than the presidential election.

The ballot, taken from October 6 to 12, discovered that solely 24 p.c of registered voters who assist Trump view the pandemic as a “crucial” voting problem within the 2020 election, in comparison with 82 p.c of Biden supporters. The very best problem of concern for Trump voters, by far, was the economic system — 84 p.c named that as being “crucial” (a fairly excessive variety of Biden supporters, 66 p.c, agreed).

The ballot requested registered voters about six points — abortion, well being care, international coverage, the economic system, the coronavirus pandemic, and Supreme Courtroom appointments — and located that Biden and Trump supporters considered most points with comparatively equal significance. Two interrelated points have been clear exceptions: well being care, a difficulty Biden supporters have been 38 share factors extra more likely to view as “crucial,” and the pandemic, which boasted a fair bigger 58 share level hole.

Pew Analysis Middle

To this point, greater than 220,000 Individuals have died from Covid-19 and roughly 1,000 proceed to die day by day. States like Arizona, Wisconsin, and Florida — all of which voted for Trump in 2016 — have skilled a number of the worst outbreaks within the US. As my colleague German Lopez factors out, if Republican-leaning states alone have been a rustic, they’d be within the prime 10 for Covid-19 deaths amongst developed nations.

And the worst could also be but to return: On Friday, the US reported a single-day document of confirmed coronavirus instances, over 85,000 — surpassing the earlier excessive from July by over 10,000 instances. Saturday, the brand new confirmed case rely almost matched that document excessive, topping 83,000. With case masses and hospitalizations already at dangerously excessive ranges, epidemiologists have expressed concern that this “third wave” of Covid-19 instances might be probably the most lethal but.

Trump has burdened the economic system over pandemic response

A second Pew ballot, launched earlier this month, could give some perception into why many Trump supporters don’t see the coronavirus as an vital problem within the upcoming election.

The survey discovered that 68 p.c of Republicans suppose the US has managed the Covid-19 outbreak “as a lot because it may have” versus 11 p.c of Democrats; it additionally discovered that 66 p.c of Republicans suppose the Covid-19 outbreak has been made out to be a “larger deal than it truly is,” whereas simply 15 p.c of Democrats stated the identical.

Pew Analysis Middle

This ballot displays a story superior by President Donald Trump: that his administration had performed every part attainable to regulate the coronavirus outbreak — and that the coronavirus was by no means as critical as media, specialists, and Democratic politicians made it out to be.

All through the pandemic, Trump has praised himself and his administration for having performed a “phenomenal job” dealing with the disaster. In Thursday’s presidential debate, Trump cited a mannequin that forecast US deaths if the nation took no coronavirus prevention measures, claiming that “2.2 million individuals, modeled out, have been anticipated to die,” misleadingly suggesting that his administration’s response had saved roughly 2 million lives.

In that very same debate, he claimed that “700,000 individuals can be lifeless proper now” beneath a Biden administration — a demise toll that will have required Biden to do much less to cease the virus than the Trump administration has (Biden’s coronavirus plan requires doing extra). Vice President Mike Pence pursued an identical line of assault on the vice presidential debate in early October.

Moreover praising his response, Trump has additionally constantly performed down the seriousness of the coronavirus. Within the final presidential debate, he responded to a query in regards to the virus by saying, “We’re studying to stay with it.” On Saturday alone, Trump tweeted that the record-setting variety of new instances within the US is being overhyped, claimed that the virus would magically disappear after the election, and pushed a baseless conspiracy principle that medical doctors and hospitals are inflating the Covid-19 demise rely for revenue.

In the meantime, Trump has repeatedly pushed to utterly reopen the US economic system. Echoing a declare he’s been making since March, the president stated at Thursday’s debate, “The treatment can’t be worse than the issue itself, and that’s what’s occurring. … We will’t maintain this nation closed. This can be a large nation with a large economic system.”

From the skin, it’s simple to view Trump’s fixed downplaying of the pandemic as political suicide — the kind of habits that can entrench opposition to the president and doubtlessly trigger his supporters to desert him come November. However the Pew polls launched this month seem to inform a distinct story. Trump’s blatant denial of the coronavirus actuality — and his deal with reopening the economic system — isn’t turning his base off; on the contrary, it displays what they already consider in regards to the pandemic.

Political polarization impacts views on Covid-19 — nevertheless it has its limits

The tutorial literature on political polarization factors to a easy clarification for the large divergence in public opinion on the coronavirus, Pew’s pollsters detected: Partisans don’t consider the world objectively; they take cues from the leaders and media sources who they belief. Drawing on the work of political scientist Sara Wallace Goodman, my colleague Ezra Klein defined this phenomenon with regard to partisan divergence on mask-wearing earlier this 12 months:

Sara Wallace Goodman, a political scientist on the College of California Irvine, has been a part of a group repeatedly surveying the identical group of Individuals to see how their behaviors and attitudes have modified over the course of the virus. Even controlling for elements just like the prevalence of the illness within the place respondents stay, Wallace Goodman and her colleagues discover a vital and rising partisan hole when it comes to worry of the illness, perceived security of various behaviors, and most well-liked coverage options.

The important thing to understanding this, Wallace Goodman says, is that “when individuals are working in areas of excessive misinformation and ignorance, they take cues. We will solely be rational if our leaders are rational. In case you see the president not carrying a masks in conferences, you’re going to mannequin what he does.”

The identical goes for whether or not you suppose the significance of the coronavirus pandemic has been overblown, or whether or not you suppose the US did every part it may to regulate the virus. As a result of few Democrats or Republicans have personally performed investigations into these points, the variations in opinion between them hinge on which leaders and establishments they belief. Liberals have a tendency take their cues from epidemiologists and science journalists — or from political leaders and media retailers that defer to their experience. Conservatives typically take their cues from Fox Information, Trump, and different leaders and information retailers who are sometimes skeptical of — or downright hostile towards — these specialists.

In reality, when the identical Pew ballot that evaluated partisan opinions on Covid-19’s seriousness requested respondents about their main information sources, it unveiled some hanging findings. Amongst Republicans whose main information sources are Fox Information or speak radio, 78 p.c thought the seriousness of Covid-19 has been exaggerated, and 90 p.c believed the US has performed every part it may possibly to regulate the virus. Republicans who eat a extra numerous array of stories sources have significantly decrease numbers on each counts.

Pew Analysis Middle

None of this implies Trump’s dismissive rhetoric and response to Covid-19 will in the end assist him come November. The president has not loved the identical sort of pandemic polling bump that peer nation leaders and US governors have acquired. He nonetheless lags behind former Vice President Joe Biden by about 10 share factors in nationwide polls simply over per week earlier than the election. Trump additionally seems to be missing assist amongst older voters in key swing states like Florida which have been particularly hard-hit by the pandemic.

One purpose for this seems to be that whereas Trump’s rhetoric on the coronavirus clearly appeals to Republican voters, it appears far much less efficient at successful over swing voters.

In response to a September Kaiser Household Basis ballot, the coronavirus outbreak is the most vital 2020 election problem for 15 p.c of undecided voters. And up to date polling throughout seven swing states — Florida, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Texas — by the conservative polling agency CT Group discovered that 56 p.c of former Trump voters who not deliberate to vote for the president cited his pandemic response as a significant component in reconsidering their assist for him.

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