Exit polls recommend Trump voters care extra concerning the financial system than the pandemic

On the eve of Election Day, pollsters have been assured: Within the battleground states the place coronavirus instances have been surging to unprecedented ranges, former Vice President Joe Biden — forward in polls nationwide — was poised to beat President Donald Trump. The speculation was that maybe, as individuals noticed their lives and livelihoods upended by Covid-19, as they noticed family and friends get sick and die, they might look to another chief.

As of Wednesday morning, it seems a special actuality may play out. Whereas counting continues in key swing states like Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, Trump has already clinched victory in Iowa, the place coronavirus instances are up 94 p.c from two weeks in the past, and Florida, the place Covid-19 hospitalizations are among the many highest within the US — and the place he misplaced favor amongst older voters exactly due to the pandemic.

Already, within the very locations with the very best density of latest Covid-19 instances per million within the nation — Utah, Montana, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Indiana — voters forged their ballots in favor of Trump, generally by massive margins. (This half is much less of a shock, as these states have been all the time projected to go decisively for Trump.)

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Once more, poll counts in a number of key states like Wisconsin, the place the virus has recently been spreading quick, stay excellent, so we don’t but know who has the 270 electoral votes wanted to win the presidency. When they’re tallied, it can doubtless take months to know precisely what weighed on voters’ minds this election.

However early exit polls provide clues about why some locations being ravaged by Covid-19 favored Trump. Briefly, voters seemingly drew a dichotomy between the financial system and the general public well being response to the virus — and the place they stood on that divide fell alongside partisan strains. Republican voters overwhelmingly needed the financial system to restart greater than they needed to see the virus managed. Additionally they considered the financial system as a key problem — extra so than the pandemic — when deciding who to vote for.

Trump positioned himself because the candidate who may reinvigorate the financial system. Earlier than the coronavirus hit the nation, he presided over low unemployment charges and a booming inventory market. Regardless that that financial outlook cratered because the virus unfold and states have been compelled into lockdowns, US Division of Commerce knowledge on the eve of the election confirmed a July by way of September rebound — and Trump wager that enhance would overshadow the financial ache of the spring and early summer season.

As of Wednesday morning, it appears to be like like he might have made the right wager.

There’s a surprising stage of polarization concerning the pandemic and its financial fallout

Earlier than the election, 67 p.c of Individuals surveyed reported being considerably or very nervous about being contaminated by the coronavirus — and a fair higher proportion (86 p.c) fretted concerning the virus’s results on the financial system.

These fears performed out alongside partisan strains, in accordance with pre-election polling knowledge. In a Change Analysis evaluation, Democrats have been extra involved concerning the public well being penalties of the pandemic, and Republicans have been extra involved concerning the virus’s financial penalties.

Right this moment, exit polls mirror these findings. In keeping with surveys carried out by Edison Analysis for the Nationwide Election Pool, printed within the New York Occasions, when requested which points mattered most in figuring out an individual’s voting choice, 82 p.c of Republican voters mentioned the financial system was the highest concern, whereas 82 p.c of Democrat voters named the pandemic the No. 1 problem.

The identical divide arose when voters have been surveyed about different key pandemic points. When requested what was extra necessary — containing the virus now even when it harm the financial system, or rebuilding the financial system now, at the price of stopping the virus — 76 p.c of Republicans opted for enhancing the financial system now, whereas 80 p.c of Democrats needed to see the pandemic curtailed first.

Exit polling knowledge revealed different related divides:

• Democrats reported struggling extra monetary hardship on account of the pandemic than Republicans: 72 p.c of Democrats mentioned they skilled extreme monetary hardship, in comparison with 56 p.c of Republicans who mentioned they’d seen no post-pandemic hardship in any respect.
• Democrat voters have been far much less doubtless than Republicans to say efforts to comprise the virus are going properly: 94 p.c of Democrats mentioned the efforts have been going “very badly” and 84 p.c of Republicans mentioned they’re going “very properly.”
• Democrats have been additionally much more prone to assume mask-wearing is a matter of public well being duty: 64 p.c of Democrats mentioned mask-wearing is a public well being duty whereas 72 p.c of Republicans mentioned it’s a private alternative.

Even in locations like Iowa — the place almost 40 p.c of individuals know somebody who’s sick — the financial system might have mattered extra for voters. And its attainable Republicans don’t blame Trump for the nation’s pandemic or financial issues the way in which Democrats do. In keeping with Change Analysis, when voters in states with Democratic governors have been requested “who do you blame” for the pandemic, Republicans blamed their governor, and Democrats blamed Trump. Equally, the exit polling knowledge revealed that 93 p.c of Republicans felt Trump would higher deal with the pandemic whereas 92 p.c felt Biden would.

So Trump’s disparaging of professional recommendation about reopening, flouting of the masks requirement, and concentrate on restoring the financial system to its pre-pandemic growth, might have been precisely what his voters needed to listen to.

The dichotomy between public well being and the financial system is a false one — however possibly not for Trump voters

We’ve seen, in nations world wide, that bringing Covid-19 instances to very low ranges is healthier for the financial system in the long term than the repeated lockdown and launch cycles North America and Europe are presently dealing with. As world well being specialists preserve saying: The selection between controlling the virus and restarting the financial system is a false one.

The Trump marketing campaign apparently anticipated Republican voters wouldn’t see it that means. And if the exit polling knowledge are right — Republican voters haven’t seen monetary hardship on the size of Democrat voters — possibly their lived expertise doesn’t mirror that broader fact. Or possibly they merely see Trump because the chief with a very good financial report, who can rebuild the financial system in a means Biden can not. Both means, in lots of states struggling to comprise coronavirus instances, financial ache and worry trumped worry of the virus — serving to Trump pad his Electoral Faculty whole.