Regardless of President Donald Trump’s refusal to concede his defeat, Joe Biden shall be confirmed because the winner of the presidential electi
Regardless of President Donald Trump’s refusal to concede his defeat, Joe Biden shall be confirmed because the winner of the presidential election this Tuesday — and once more subsequent week and once more in early January earlier than he’s lastly sworn in.
This Tuesday, December 8, is what is named the protected harbor deadline. If states have settled their presidential election outcomes by this date, federal legislation states that these outcomes shall be thought of “conclusive” for the aim of counting electoral votes. That doesn’t fairly set the ends in stone simply but, as I’ll clarify. However general, almost each state has licensed its outcomes already, with the few remaining ones anticipated to take action quickly.
The subsequent large date is Monday, December 14, when the Electoral Faculty votes. In every state and the District of Columbia, the 538 electors who make up the Electoral Faculty will forged the votes that can technically make Biden the following president. There’s little drama right here. The states Biden received have appointed elector slates of Democrats, who’re sure to vote for Biden. However it’s the following step in making issues official.
Then, on Wednesday, January 6, Congress counts the electoral votes. That is additionally primarily ceremonial. We’ll know the depend upfront as a result of the votes shall be public on December 14. The one minor hitch is {that a} Trump ally within the Home plans to problem that depend. However for that problem to succeed, each the Home and the Senate must comply with overrule the electoral votes. The Democrat-controlled Home clearly wouldn’t go together with this, so the problem received’t change the end result.
Two weeks after that, on January 20, Biden shall be inaugurated as the following president.
The subsequent week will convey two deadlines
Trump’s floundering effort to overturn the outcomes of the election has had a number of focuses. He’s (unsuccessfully) tried to forestall key states Biden received from certifying their outcomes. He’s (unsuccessfully) tried to get judges to step in and forestall certifications. And he’s (unsuccessfully) tried to get Republican state legislators in these states to step in and appoint Trump-supporting electors.
Time is about to formally run out on all these fronts.
First, this Tuesday, December 8, is the protected harbor deadline. That is set in federal legislation, which says that if a state has resolved any “controversy or contest” over the appointment of electors by today, that decision is “conclusive, and shall govern within the counting of the electoral votes.”
Nonetheless, the protected harbor deadline doesn’t essentially set the state ends in stone. Its major function was to forestall outcomes settled within the states from being later overturned by the federal authorities — to grant the states “protected harbor” from federal interference.
This 12 months specifically, no substantive effort to overturn the outcomes (in Congress, the courts, or state legislatures) has gained steam, so protected harbor most likely isn’t mandatory. It’s primarily related as a result of states themselves have focused this deadline to attempt to have their outcomes finalized. And certainly, each state is on observe to have its outcomes licensed and electors appointed on schedule (although some lawsuits are nonetheless pending).
The extra consequential approaching date is on Monday, December 14, when the Electoral Faculty really casts its votes.
Every state, in accordance with the vote outcomes, appoints a slate of individuals as electors — Biden’s most popular individuals are appointed in states the place Biden received, and Trump’s individuals are appointed in states the place Trump received. Collectively, these 538 individuals make up the Electoral Faculty. Their votes — which shall be forged individually in every state and the District of Columbia and introduced publicly — formally have the ability to make the following president.
There have been “faithless electors” previously, individuals who didn’t vote for the candidate who received their state, however such defections are uncommon (most electors are picked for the job by their social gathering exactly as a result of they’re sturdy partisans), and Biden’s lead is large enough that it’s extremely unlikely sufficient faithless electors may overturn it (37 electors must defect).
So the Electoral Faculty vote may also be primarily a formality. However it is going to be an essential one. As a result of after it, statewide Republican officers and GOP state legislators — the politicians Trump has tried to foyer to overturn the outcomes — will now not play a job within the course of. The motion, corresponding to it’s, will transfer on to Congress.
Democrats management the Home, so any problem to the outcomes will fail in Congress
On January 6, 2021, a joint session of the newly elected Congress will convene to depend the votes forged by the Electoral Faculty the earlier month. This congressional depend is the ultimate formal step in making the presidential election outcomes official earlier than the inauguration itself.
Normally, this can be a formality. However generally, there’s a last-minute kerfuffle as a result of there’s a course of by which members of Congress can problem the vote depend. We probably will get such a problem — Rep. Mo Brooks (R-AL) has mentioned he’ll file one, although he wants to search out a minimum of one senator to hitch him for the problem to advance.
This may not be unprecedented. In 2005, Rep. Stephanie Tubbs Jones (D-OH) and Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA) made such a problem to George W. Bush’s win in Ohio. (In 2017, some Home Democrats tried to problem Trump’s win in sure states, however the try was fruitless as a result of no senators would be a part of them.)
If a consultant and senator assist a problem, what occurs subsequent is that the joint session of Congress splits up, and the Home and Senate will every maintain a vote on the problem. Right here’s the important thing half, although: Until a majority in each the Home and Senate vote to maintain the problem, it can fail.
So as a result of Democrats management the Home, any try to overturn the election for Trump will certainly be voted down by them. It could effectively fail within the Senate as effectively; a number of Republican senators have acknowledged Biden’s victory.
Meaning this problem will principally simply be a stunt and it received’t really overturn the end result. What it will do is assure a recorded vote in each the Home and Senate about whether or not they need to enable Biden’s win, which may put some swing state or swing district Republican members of Congress in an uncomfortable place. (This could possibly be a selected concern for some Senate Republicans in 2022 — do they threat a main problem by recognizing Biden’s win or do they again Trump’s problem and endanger their normal election possibilities?)
In 2005, the vote on Tubbs Jones and Boxer’s problem to Bush’s Ohio win resulted in its overwhelming rejection — by 267-31 within the Home and 74-1 within the Senate. But if Trump himself remains to be disputing the outcomes, and far of the Republican citizens agrees with him, the tally might not be so lopsided this time round.
However once more, as a result of Democrats management the Home, there’s no believable manner for a problem to succeed. Biden’s win is already clear — and it’ll simply be made clear once more on every of those key dates.