Larry David has a message for his political doppelgänger, Bernie Sanders: Drop out, already!
“I believed when he had the guts assault that was going to be it — I wouldn’t should fly in from Los Angeles. However, , he’s indestructible! Nothing stops this man,” the comic, who has memorably impersonated Mr. Sanders for years, told Stephen Colbert. “If he wins, have you learnt what that’s going to do to my life? It’ll be nice for the nation, horrible for me.”
Sorry to curb your enthusiasm, Larry. However Mr. Sanders is doing prettaayy, prettaayy good within the Democratic race. (See what I did there?)
Polling released this week of Iowa and New Hampshire voters exhibits Mr. Sanders in a digital three-way tie with Joe Biden and Pete Buttigieg within the first nominating contests.
It’s a outstanding political revival for Mr. Sanders, one which even a few of his closest advisers admit they couldn’t have predicted. Keep in mind, lower than 4 months in the past, the 78-year-old had a heart attack. It was the type of perilous well being state of affairs that historically would doom a presidential candidate, notably one who was already dealing with questions on his age.
Not Mr. Sanders. Within the closing weeks earlier than the Iowa caucuses, he’s not simply surviving however thriving. His surge could be attributed not less than partly to the decline of his chief liberal rival, Elizabeth Warren, who’s seen a few of her help — notably amongst youthful voters — drift over to Mr. Sanders. His post-hospitalization endorsement from Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York additionally helped.
Maybe Mr. Sanders’s political sturdiness shouldn’t be all that stunning. In a unstable subject, his help has at all times been characterised by its steadiness.
As he did in 2016, he attracts giant crowds to his occasions, filled with voters sporting every kind of Sanders swag. In surveys, his supporters are considerably extra seemingly than these backing different candidates to say they’ve undoubtedly made up their minds to vote for him. Much more of them say they’re “enthusiastic” about his candidacy, too.
However the query for Mr. Sanders on this race has by no means been whether or not he has a core of passionate supporters. It’s whether or not he can increase past them. His ground is excessive. But when he needs to win the nomination, his ceiling is what issues.
It’s price stating one other notable quantity within the New Hampshire ballot printed at this time by Monmouth College: 21 p.c. That’s the quantity of help Mr. Sanders would get if the race had been narrowed to the highest seven candidates, the survey discovered. However it’s additionally his stage of help in a four-candidate contest, indicating that he’s not positioned to select up a lot help if lower-polling candidates give up the race.
Sanders aides disagree, saying they might profit from a hypothetical exit by Ms. Warren, or for that matter by Andrew Yang and Tulsi Gabbard, who’ve gained help from some youthful voters and disaffected Democrats who would possibly in any other case go together with Mr. Sanders.
Mr. Sanders’s marketing campaign has additionally stated that he picked up 300,000 new donors within the final three months of 2019, which his aides say exhibits he’s increasing his base of supporters. (He may also get some further consideration on Friday morning, when he’s scheduled to look with Mr. David on NBC’s “At the moment” present, Sanders aides stated.)
Additionally they consider that “profitable begets profitable.” As soon as candidates begin profitable primaries and caucuses, it should reshape the race, lending main momentum to whoever emerges victorious in these early-voting states.
At a time when so many Democrats are centered on electability, they argue, nothing makes a candidate look extra like a winner than, nicely, really profitable a contest.
I think they’re proper: Ends in the early states typically do change the stability of the first.
Whether or not these dynamics shift in Mr. Sanders’s favor, nevertheless, stays to be seen.
We need to hear from our readers. Have a query? We’ll attempt to reply it. Have a remark? We’re all ears. E mail us at onpolitics@nytimes.com.
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