Whether or not a voter cares extra about particular points or beating President Donald Trump in November appears to have a major affect on who t
Whether or not a voter cares extra about particular points or beating President Donald Trump in November appears to have a major affect on who they’ll vote for within the Democratic main — and, particularly, whether or not a voter helps Sen. Bernie Sanders above all the opposite choices.
That’s primarily based on exit polls from the New Hampshire race, the place 63 p.c of voters prioritized beating Trump. Amongst that group, about 28 p.c voted for former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg, 21 p.c voted for Sanders, and 20 p.c for Sen. Amy Klobuchar.
However among the many 34 p.c of New Hampshire voters who prioritized a candidate who agrees with them on main points, Sanders led with 39 p.c assist, with Buttigieg and Klobuchar lagging far behind at 21 and 12 p.c respectively. (The highest points, in accordance with the identical ballot: well being care, local weather change, and earnings inequality.)
Sanders’s giant lead with issues-focused voters may clarify his slim win in New Hampshire: He picked up simply sufficient Trump-focused voters for a strong baseline, whereas his large victory with issues-focused voters put him excessive.
It is a probably little bit of a simplification of the scenario. Whereas voters might identify concrete priorities when requested by pollsters, voters in actuality stability a complete host of variables, from electability to coverage positions to private likability, when selecting a nominee. However on condition that a lot of Democratic voters’ consideration goes to beating Trump — and has been for some time — this battle between electability and coverage positions will probably be a significant one for the remainder of the first season.
For Sanders, now the frontrunner, it additionally appears to be a notable weak point. It’s not simply that he misplaced amongst voters who prioritize beating Trump. Democrats normally appear to view him as much less electable, no less than in accordance with the New Hampshire exit polls: Requested who stands the perfect probability in opposition to Trump, 27 p.c of voters stated Buttigieg, 21 p.c stated Klobuchar, and 19 p.c stated Sanders. (This differs from national polling, the place former Vice President Joe Biden has usually dominated, adopted by Sanders, former New York Metropolis Mayor Mike Bloomberg, and Buttigieg.)
If Democrats proceed specializing in beating Trump, however proceed believing that Sanders isn’t the perfect particular person to try this, the social gathering might have a tough time uniting behind Sanders, even when he’s the frontrunner. That would enhance the probabilities of nobody getting a majority of the delegates wanted to clinch the Democratic nomination — an actual chance, primarily based on FiveThirtyEight’s primary forecast.
On the identical time, perhaps voters will come round to Sanders if he continues profitable the favored vote in these main contests. A method for him to show he’s electable, in any case, is to win elections. And if extra voters are persuaded by Sanders’s marketing campaign, they could come to imagine that different individuals will be persuaded too.
For now, although, considerations about electability look like a significant weak point for Sanders and might, as New Hampshire demonstrated, present a gap for different candidates to reap the benefits of.