In fact, broader uncertainty concerning the state of the race stays. The brand new query is: Simply how far can Mr. Biden surge? The fragmentary an
In fact, broader uncertainty concerning the state of the race stays. The brand new query is: Simply how far can Mr. Biden surge? The fragmentary and never all the time high-quality post-South Carolina polling knowledge actually exhibits Mr. Biden making large features, whether or not nationwide or in Virginia.
However it stays to be seen whether or not these features can be sufficient for him to drag off a symbolically essential win exterior the a number of Southern states the place he’s favored — probably in Texas, however maybe in Maine or, much less doubtless, Minnesota or Massachusetts. To perform this, Mr. Biden would in all probability should pry away help from Mr. Bloomberg, the one different average who stays within the race.
Tremendous Tuesday is the primary check of Mr. Bloomberg’s help. State polls urged he was positioned to achieve 15 % in lots of Southern contests heading into South Carolina. This may value Mr. Sanders delegates, and subsequently preserve him farther from the vast majority of delegates essential to win with out a contested conference. But on the identical time, if Mr. Bloomberg’s power is confined to the South, the place Mr. Biden is now poised to do nicely, Mr. Bloomberg may value Mr. Biden extra delegates than he prices Mr. Sanders.
Current polls of doubtless Democratic voters in Tremendous Tuesday states give purpose to suppose Mr. Bloomberg’s voters may break for Mr. Biden. A few of these polls, taken by the survey analysis firm Dynata in collaboration with The Occasions, and matched to voter file knowledge from L2, recommend that Mr. Bloomberg held almost thrice as a lot help amongst voters over age 65, a gaggle skeptical of Mr. Sanders, than voters below 34.
Within the open primaries throughout the South, Mr. Bloomberg had 29 % help amongst voters who final participated in a Republican major, suggesting he was positioned to fare nicely among the many form of college-educated, prosperous voters who flipped from Mitt Romney in 2012 to Hillary Clinton in 2016 and powered the Democratic surge throughout the Solar Belt.
The few post-South Carolina polls don’t essentially present a collapse in Mr. Bloomberg’s help. If it falters, Mr. Biden may very well be favored to win in Texas. The extent of superior voting elsewhere makes it tougher to think about a giant Biden upset, however Maine, with one of many oldest Democratic electorates within the nation, may shock.
One other query issues Ms. Warren, who may simply breach 15 % of the vote in lots of Northern states, particularly with the assistance of some former supporters of Mr. Buttigieg or Ms. Klobuchar. She may additionally win her residence state, Massachusetts. It’s onerous to see the place she may take her marketing campaign from there, but when she may pull off 15 % in California, it might in all probability be simply be sufficient to dam Mr. Sanders from claiming a majority of delegates on Tremendous Tuesday.