Texas Senate race: John Cornyn faces MJ Hegar in his first actual problem

For the second election cycle in a row, a distinguished Senate Republican is going through a tricky reelection marketing campaign in Texas — a state that was as soon as thought to be reliably crimson however has turn out to be one of many nation’s greatest battlegrounds. However in contrast to in 2018, when Democrat Beto O’Rourke grew to become a trigger célèbre for his near-miss in opposition to the incumbent Sen. Ted Cruz, this yr’s Senate race hasn’t captured the nationwide highlight.

That’s the way in which the 2 candidates — Sen. John Cornyn, a Republican searching for a fourth time period, and his nascent Democratic challenger MJ Hegar — would in all probability choose it. They’ve sought to make this race about Texas, moderately than President Donald Trump. However in an particularly polarized election yr, nationwide politics has nonetheless seeped into the race.

Cornyn, who has a repute for being a bipartisan dealmaker within the Senate, has distanced himself from Trump, whose approval scores have dropped in Texas since 2016 and who has solely a slight edge over former Vice President Joe Biden in Texas polls. Somewhat than staking his candidacy on the president’s report, Cornyn has framed his reelection marketing campaign as a battle to save lots of Texas from coastal liberals.

“I feel this election presents a transparent selection between the individuals who recruited and supported MJ’s marketing campaign, which wish to make Texas extra like California and New York,” he mentioned throughout a televised debate earlier this month. “I wish to make the remainder of the nation extra like Texas.”

Suzanne Cordeiro/AFP through Getty Pictures

Hegar, who ran for Congress in 2018 however has by no means held elected workplace earlier than, has portrayed herself as an outsider who eschews political labels. She has resisted strain to opine on what position she would play in her get together if elected, whereas Cornyn has tried to color her as somebody who would assist additional the agenda of Democratic leaders. She has been clear that, in contrast to different Democratic candidates nationwide, she’s not operating in opposition to Trump. Somewhat, she’s gone on the offensive in opposition to Cornyn, who she says has misplaced contact along with his constituents over his 18 years within the Senate.

“I’m not operating for president. I’m operating for Senate,” she instructed Vox in an interview. “The issue of John Cornyn to Texas is a thorn in our aspect that predates Donald Trump.”

Cornyn’s marketing campaign didn’t reply to requests for remark.

Cornyn continues to be favored to win, with the newest polls exhibiting him with anyplace from a 1- to 10-point lead, pushed partially by his skill to compete with suburban and concrete voters who’ve appeared to show in opposition to Trump. Hegar is inside firing distance and will nonetheless make up floor within the last weeks earlier than Election Day, although early voting in Texas is already underway and can conclude on October 30.

The Prepare dinner Political Report lately shifted its race scores in Hegar’s favor from Doubtless Republican to Leans Republican. Hegar, a former Air Power helicopter pilot, is main amongst each Black and Hispanic voters, although she isn’t matching Biden’s help amongst these teams. She raised $13.5 million within the third quarter, outpacing Cornyn by a 2-1 ratio, and snagged an endorsement from former President Barack Obama. And the Democratic group Majority PAC made a late-stage $8.6 million advert purchase on her behalf.

It’s additionally doable that, as was the case with O’Rourke, the polls are underestimating Hegar, who may benefit from report turnout. The secretary of state’s workplace has reported that about 16.9 million Texans have registered to vote this yr, up virtually 2 million since 2016 — partially a results of the efforts of O’Rourke’s marketing campaign and grassroots organizers to broaden the state’s citizens.

“There’s a decade extra of base-building that MJ is operating on prime of, together with the work that she’s doing to activate her personal voters,” Tory Gavito, a Democratic strategist and president of the donor community Approach to Win, mentioned. “Even when we don’t take the highest of the ticket, we have to search for indicators of progress. There’s little doubt that Texas continues to be on the purple trajectory.”

Hegar is asking voters to not belief Cornyn’s guarantees on well being care

Hegar has made her well being care plan a central pillar of her platform, and he or she’s hoping that resonates with voters in the midst of a pandemic that has hit Texans particularly arduous. Coronavirus hospitalizations peaked over the summer season after Texas grew to become one of many first states to reopen its financial system, and there have been regarding indicators that Texas is due for one more surge as instances have lately spiked in El Paso and North Texas.

However pandemic or not, entry to well being care is a matter that looms massive in Texas, which has the best uninsured fee nationwide and is certainly one of 12 states which have but to broaden Medicaid underneath the Inexpensive Care Act’s joint state-federal program that has provided well being care protection to people with incomes beneath 138 p.c of the poverty line (about $17,600 for a single grownup) since 2016.

Hegar, who labored for a Texas hospital system for 5 years, has embraced a “Medicare-for-all-who-want-it” system modeled after the well being care system within the army. That’s in step with Biden’s well being care plan however doesn’t go so far as the Medicare-for-all proposal championed by progressives.

“I consider that people ought to have the selection to remain on personal insurance coverage if they like or decide in to Medicare,” Hegar instructed Vox. “We should defend the progress made by the Inexpensive Care Act whereas making much-needed enhancements. We can not return to the previous when insurance coverage firms have been capable of discriminate in opposition to these with preexisting circumstances or promote junk plans that depart of us weak when critical well being points or accidents happen.”

This yr, Democratic candidates throughout the nation have equally run on well being care, a problem that was important to the get together’s success within the 2018 midterms and that greater than 1 / 4 of voters, no matter get together affiliation, say is a very powerful subject on this presidential election.

Bob Daemmrich/Nexstar/AP

Hegar’s technique has been not solely to focus on how Texans would profit if the US expanded well being care entry, but in addition to attract consideration to Cornyn’s historical past as a number one proponent of repealing and changing the ACA within the Senate and of receiving marketing campaign contributions from pharmaceutical executives. Cornyn claims that, even when the ACA have been repealed, he would nonetheless protect the legislation’s protections for Individuals with preexisting circumstances, which most Individuals help, and permit folks underneath the age of 26 to remain on their mother and father’ medical insurance plans.

“You understand, preexisting circumstances is one thing all of us agree must be lined,” he mentioned in a marketing campaign advert that aired earlier this month, echoing different Republican senators in shut races.

However he supported the Republican-led Higher Care Reconciliation Act in 2017, which might have allowed insurers promoting plans on the person market to disclaim protection or improve prices for folks with preexisting circumstances. He additionally supported the Shield Act in 2019, which, regardless of Senate Republicans’ efforts to invoice it in any other case, would enable insurers to supply “skinny protection geared toward wholesome prospects, and significantly costlier insurance policies with complete protection for individuals who would possibly really want expensive care,” in line with the LA Instances.

“It blows my thoughts that John Cornyn can sleep at night time after attempting to tear away care from hundreds of thousands of Texans,” Hegar instructed Vox.

Texas’s altering citizens is driving Cornyn to the center

Texas is at a political turning level, largely introduced on by demographic change. The state final backed a Democrat for president in 1976, and Republicans have held state legislative chambers and the governorship since 2003. However the state is changing into more and more city, and Hispanics are on observe to turn out to be its largest inhabitants group by mid-2021, two traits that usually favor Democrats.

That long-promised transformation has been gradual to reach, partially as a result of state Republicans have sought to curb voter participation: Simply this yr, they’ve banned counties from sending mail-in ballots to all registered voters, restricted the variety of poll drop-off places to only one per county, and tried to cease drive-through voting. Nonetheless, Texas Republicans are in actual strife this yr up and down the poll.

Cornyn, for his half, has been compelled to shift to the middle on some points as Hegar has climbed within the polls. That’s been notably clear in the way in which he talks about his immigration coverage.

Graeme Jennings/Getty Pictures

Although the Republican Social gathering has largely mirrored Trump’s restrictive immigration insurance policies, Cornyn made a Spanish-language advert purchase in September touting his help for the DREAM Act, which might provide a path to citizenship for 1.Eight million unauthorized immigrants nationwide who got here to the US as kids. The invoice, which is a few 20 years within the making, has been blocked repeatedly in Congress, generally along with his help and generally with out.

He voted in opposition to variations of the invoice in 2006, 2007, 2010, 2013, and 2018, which immigrant advocates cite as proof that he’s no ally of so-called DREAMers. If he actually supported younger unauthorized immigrants, he would have referred to as for a vote on a standalone invoice to legalize them that handed the Home in 2019, Mario Carrillo, a Texas-based spokesperson for the immigrant advocacy group America’s Voice, mentioned in a press release.

However Cornyn’s aides have touted his help for different variations of the invoice, together with a 2018 proposal that coupled everlasting protections for DREAMers with $25 billion in funding for Trump’s border wall and different border safety measures.

Cornyn’s choice to tout that vote suggests he’s battling key demographics, Gavito mentioned.

“Even when he emerges because the victor, there is no such thing as a doubt that the organizing that has gone into Texas has pulled him to the left,” she mentioned. “It’s as a result of he’s feeling warmth, particularly amongst younger voters, Latino voters, and multiracial suburban voters.”

Hegar and Cornyn are usually not O’Rourke and Cruz — however they nonetheless can’t escape nationwide politics fully

This Senate race isn’t a repeat of 2018: Neither of the candidates has the star energy of O’Rourke and Cruz, and so they’re defending their information to a Texas viewers, not a nationwide one.

In 2018, O’Rourke, then a three-term Congress member, traveled to all 254 counties in Texas and livestreamed the entire journey, drawing a nationwide following and breaking fundraising information. Hegar, a political newcomer, had deliberate to do the identical to get her title on the market, however that wasn’t doable this yr because of the pandemic.

“Hegar is suffering from what any Democrat operating statewide in Texas can be suffering from, which is simply scale of title recognition,” Gavito mentioned.

Eric Homosexual/AP

Although Hegar continues to be at a relative drawback, Cornyn suffers from his personal lack of title recognition in his house state: As of late August, greater than 1 / 4 of voters had no opinion of him or didn’t know sufficient about him to have an opinion. His approval scores are additionally decrease than these of Cruz, a way more fiery, divisive persona within the Senate.

Each candidates have tried to tailor their messaging to Texans: Cornyn has framed the race as a battle for Texas’s conservative values, arguing that Hegar’s insurance policies are “too liberal for Texas.” Hegar, for her half, has forged him as a profession politician who is just too steeped in Washington politics to battle for Texans.

However nationwide politics are nonetheless enjoying a task as Cornyn, regardless of his greatest efforts, can not escape affiliation with a polarizing president.

He has turn out to be extra outspoken in distinguishing his politics from Trump’s within the last stretch earlier than Election Day — what some have criticized as an about-face. In a current interview with the Fort Value Star-Telegram, he mentioned that he disagreed with the president on points together with funds deficits, tariffs, commerce agreements, and border safety, however selected to voice these variations of opinion in personal.

Talking about his relationship with Trump, he likened himself to a “lot of girls who get married and assume they’re going to alter their partner, and that doesn’t normally work out very effectively.”

“I feel what we discovered is that we’re not going to alter President Trump,” he added. “He’s who he’s. You both love him or hate him, and there’s not a lot in between. What I attempted to do is just not get into public confrontations and fights with him as a result of, as I’ve noticed, these normally don’t finish too effectively.”

In follow, Cornyn has steadily sided with the White Home on points starting from attempting to push by the affirmation of Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Courtroom earlier than the election to acquitting the president in his impeachment trial earlier this yr.

Cornyn shouldn’t be capable to escape that report, Hegar mentioned.

“What a Texan must be profitable right here is to point out that they’re a rattling Texan and never a DC spineless bootlicker,” she instructed Vox. “That isn’t John Cornyn’s seat. It’s not my seat. It’s Texas’s seat, and it must be crammed by a Texan who’s going to battle for normal working households throughout the state and for Texas values like integrity and grit and spine.”

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