WASHINGTON — Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is getting ready a authorized argument that the US stays a participant within the Iran nuclear accord t
WASHINGTON — Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is getting ready a authorized argument that the US stays a participant within the Iran nuclear accord that President Trump has renounced, a part of an intricate technique to strain the United Nations Safety Council to increase an arms embargo on Tehran or see much more stringent sanctions reimposed on the nation.
The technique has been described in latest days by administration officers as they start to flow into a brand new decision within the Safety Council that may bar international locations from exporting typical arms to Iran after the present ban expires in October. Any effort to resume the arms embargo is sort of sure to be opposed by Russia and, publicly or quietly, by China. The Russians have already advised American and European officers they’re desperate to resume typical arms gross sales to Iran.
In an effort to power the problem, Mr. Pompeo has authorized a plan, sure to be opposed by lots of Washington’s European allies, underneath which the US would, in essence, declare it legally stays a “participant state” within the nuclear accord that Mr. Trump has denounced — however just for the needs of invoking a “snapback” that may restore the U.N. sanctions on Iran that have been in place earlier than the accord.
If the arms embargo shouldn’t be renewed, the US would train that proper as an unique member of the settlement. That step would power a restoration of the big selection of the sanctions that prohibited oil gross sales and banking preparations earlier than the adoption of the settlement in 2015. Implementing these older sanctions would, in idea, be binding on all members of the United Nations.
European diplomats who’ve discovered of the trouble preserve that Mr. Trump and Mr. Pompeo are selectively selecting whether or not they’re nonetheless within the settlement to suit their agenda.
Your complete drama may play out this autumn within the weeks earlier than the presidential election, organising a possible confrontation with Iran within the midst of the competition.
Political calculations apart, the administration’s bigger plan could transcend imposing harsher sanctions on Iran. It’s also to power Tehran to surrender any pretense of preserving the Obama-era settlement. Solely by shattering it, many senior administration officers say, will Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and President Hassan Rouhani be pressured to barter a completely new settlement extra to Mr. Trump’s liking.
Iran has resisted even opening talks with the Trump administration, saying that earlier than it could sit down Mr. Trump to amend the earlier settlement, the US must re-enter the accord and totally abide by its phrases. Mr. Trump has refused.
The intricate technique has been described by senior administration officers concerned in devising it. Requested about it, Mr. Pompeo mentioned in a press release to The New York Occasions: “We can not enable the Islamic Republic of Iran to buy typical weapons in six months. President Obama ought to by no means have agreed to finish the U.N. arms embargo.”
“We’re ready to train all of our diplomatic choices to make sure the arms embargo stays in place on the U.N. Safety Council,” he added.
The timing is vital for Iran, which has been ravaged by the coronavirus. A month in the past, the United Nations secretary common, António Guterres, wrote to the world’s largest economic powers and urged a lifting of economic sanctions on Iran, along with Cuba, Venezuela, North Korea and Zimbabwe. “I am encouraging the waiving of sanctions imposed on countries to ensure access to food, essential health supplies, and Covid-19 medical support,” he wrote. “This is the time for solidarity not exclusion.”
He did not say how long that waiver should last, and his appeal has made little progress.
Mr. Trump said that he would be willing to give some medical equipment to Iran to combat the virus, such as ventilators, “if they ask for it.” Iran’s leaders have not asked.
Trump administration officials say their threat to return to the far harsher sanctions — which blocked virtually all oil sales and drove Iran to the negotiating table — would not come until fall, presumably after the first phase of the coronavirus response has passed. They maintain it is separate from any relaxation of restrictions on medical supplies, some of which are exempted already from U.S. sanctions.
The arms embargo at the center of the dispute was something of a sideshow to the main nuclear agreement. The agreement covers only Iran’s nuclear activity: It required Iran to ship about 97 percent of its nuclear fuel out of the country — moved to Russia, in early 2016 — and to observe sharp limits on its production of nuclear material for 15 years.
Iran abided by those limits for a year after Mr. Trump pulled out of the agreement. But since last summer, it has gradually violated the limitations on both how much nuclear fuel it is allowed to stockpile and the level to which it can enrich its fuel. As a result, experts agree that it has greatly shortened its “breakout time,” the period needed to make enough fuel for a single nuclear weapon. Iran insists it would return to the agreed-upon levels as soon as Mr. Trump came back into compliance with the agreement by lifting unilateral sanctions.
The arms embargo — along with limits on missile launches — was part of a United Nations Security Council resolution that enshrined the nuclear accord, and suspended years of U.N.-imposed sanctions. That is what begins to expire in October. (The limits come off in stages: Small arms restrictions end this year, but restrictions on missiles and their components remain in place for another three years.)
Wendy R. Sherman, who served as the negotiation team leader of the Iran accord during the Obama administration and now directs the Center for Public Leadership at Harvard, recalled that the Russians and Chinese never wanted a conventional arms embargo on Iran, and only agreed to one of limited duration.
In an interview, Ms. Sherman predicted that if the United States argues that it remains a participant in the agreement for the purposes of dismantling the accord, “I think they will get tremendous pushback, because the Trump administration withdrew from the agreement.” She predicted that any move to impose the snapback provisions “will be strongly resisted, and should be.” But she added, “That doesn’t mean it wouldn’t succeed.”
Under Mr. Pompeo’s plan, an American-drafted resolution, which has already been given to the Europeans, the Saudis and the United Arab Emirates, would propose extending the conventional arms embargo, according to a copy reviewed by The New York Times.
The American draft says that “Iran shall not supply, sell or transfer, directly or indirectly, from its territory, by its nationals or using its flag vessels or aircraft, any arms or related matériel, and that all member states shall prohibit the procurement of such items from Iran by their nationals, or using their flagged vessels or aircraft, and whether or not originating in the territory of Iran.”
Russia, the U.S. expects, would veto the resolution in the Security Council.
In response, the United States would then attempt to declare that it remains a participant state in the agreement, formally called the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, despite Mr. Trump’s declaration that he was abandoning it.
As a participant state, the United States would declare that Iran is violating the agreement because it is now producing nuclear fuel above the limits in the accord — and impose the snapback of U.N. sanctions that Mr. Obama referred to in his 2015 speech, when he was trying to reassure critics of the agreement.
Relying on a legal opinion developed by lawyers within Mr. Pompeo’s department, the United States would dispute the arguments of the other signatories that Mr. Trump gave up all rights to invoke the snapback when he declared that the United States was reimposing its own sanctions on Iran, despite Washington’s obligations under the agreement.
A senior European diplomat, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, dismissed the strategy as pushing the words of the agreement far beyond their logical context.
But the administration’s strategy could well work, even if other members of the United Nations ignored the move. At that point, on paper at least, the United Nations would be back to all the sanctions on Iran that existed before Mr. Obama reached the accord with Tehran.