Breakout or $40K bull trap? 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

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Breakout or $40K bull trap? 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

Bitcoin (BTC) starts the first week of December looking better than it has since early 2022 — at over $40,000.BTC price action is delighting bulls alr

Bitcoin (BTC) starts the first week of December looking better than it has since early 2022 — at over $40,000.

BTC price action is delighting bulls already as the month begins, with the weekly close providing the first trip above the $40,000 mark since April last year.

Shorts are getting wiped and liquidity taken as the bull run sees its latest boost on the back of macroeconomic changes and anticipation of the United States’ first spot price exchange-traded fund (ETF).

Despite misgivings and some predicting a major price retracement, Bitcoin continues to offer little respite for sellers, who continually miss out on profits or are left waiting on the sidelines for an entry price which never comes.

The party mood is not just reflected on markets — Bitcoin miners are busy preparing for the halving, and with hash rate already at all-time highs of its own, the trend is set to continue this week.

Is there more upside left or is Bitcoin getting ahead of itself?

This is the question that longtime market participants will be asking in the coming days as legacy markets open and adjust to a post-$40,000 BTC price.

Cointelegraph takes a closer look at the state of Bitcoin this week and examines the potential volatility catalysts lying in store for hodlers.

Bitcoin surges past $40,000 — but serious correction remains on watchlist

Bitcoin is firmly reminding investors of “Uptober” as the month gets underway — by liquidating shorts and beating out key resistance levels.

The fun began into the weekly close, when $40,000 came into view for the first time since April last year.

BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView

Bulls did not slow down there, however, and BTC/USD continued rising to current local highs of $41,800, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView confirms.

In doing so, Bitcoin has wiped short positions to the tune of over $50 million on Dec. 4 alone, per statistics from CoinGlass — already the largest single-day tally since Nov. 15.

BTC liquidations (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass

Perhaps understandably, many traders are calling for upside continuation toward $50,000, with leveraged short liquidity slowly disappearing as BTC price performance edges higher.

“Someone still aggressively chasing price here,” popular trader Skew wrote during coverage of live market moves.

“More importantly if said large market entity actually allows some bids to get filled or not. IF filled then expected for them to push price higher. Clearly $40K is the price for institutional players.”

Nonetheless, not everyone is so sure that the good times will continue.

For popular trader Crypto Chase, current levels represent an ideal place to “trap” late longs and take Bitcoin $10,000 lower.

“Low 40’s then we see low 30’s. Wrong in the low 50’s, a 1:1 trade essentially,” he originally told subscribers on X (formerly Twitter) on Nov. 23 in a post which he repeated on the day.

“To me, this cycle is no different than others. Currently up only, soon to be down only. This is essentially how $BTC always trades,” he continued in part of fresh analysis.

“I believe current prices are overextended. Will add to shorts at 43K.”

Markets eager for Fed pivot in countdown to FOMC 

Last week’s collection of U.S. macroeconomic data reports did little to shift Bitcoin from what was then a narrow trading range.

That all began to change, however, when Jerome Powell, Chair of the Federal Reserve, took to the stage to deliver what many interpreted as a signal that economic policy was about to change significantly.

This would come via the Fed beginning to lower baseline interest rates — a watershed moment for crypto and risk assets which would be first in line to benefit from increasing liquidity deployments by traders currently in cash.

As Cointelegraph reported, this Fed “pivot” was previously not expected or signaled by officials until at least mid-2024, but recent forecasts have brought the unofficial deadline forward rapidly. Bill Ackman, CEO and founder of hedge fund Pershing Square Capital Management, said last week that he expects a pivot in Q1.

“I think they’re going to cut rates; I think they’re going to cut rates sooner than people expect,” he told Bloomberg at the time.

Before the new year, the Fed will make one more decision on rates, this due in under two weeks. Last week’s data prints, which affirmed the narrative of abating inflation, thus constituted crucial contributions to that decision — those due for release this week and next…

cointelegraph.com

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