Bitcoin (BTC) is painting a classic August picture as it starts the new week — volatility is nowhere to be seen.In a continuation of some of the quiet
Bitcoin (BTC) is painting a classic August picture as it starts the new week — volatility is nowhere to be seen.
In a continuation of some of the quietest BTC price action ever seen, the largest cryptocurrency remains locked in a narrow trading range below $30,000.
Whether it be long or short timeframes, Bitcoin is giving market observers cause for increasing frustration. Despite a tug-of-war between bulls and bears on exchanges, neither party seems able to set a new BTC price trend in motion.
Will the status quo remain this week?
With few macroeconomic triggers in store, catalysts for change will need to come from elsewhere. Whales are accumulating, data suggests, fueling an argument that Bitcoin is preparing its next major breakout phase in classic style.
A similar conclusion comes from some of the narrowest volatility recorded for Bitcoin courtesy of the Bollinger Bands metric, with current conditions rivalling September 2016 and January 2023.
By definition, it may simply be a matter of time before history repeats itself.
Bitcoin copycat move begins new rangebound week
The weekly close saw a modicum of volatility return to Bitcoin spot price performance, but just like last week, this was short lived.
Following the new weekly candle open, BTC/USD dipped to test $29,000 before returning to its previous position — one that still holds at the time of writing, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows.
Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm Eight, noted the similarities while repeating his view that $29,700 is the level for bulls to reclaim.
Over the weekend, Van de Poppe described the lack of volatility overall as “extremely astonishing.”
“The classic dump on Sunday evening took place on Bitcoin,” he told X subscribers alongside a chart showing relevant areas of interest.
“Holding onto support, all good. Continue the range. Party starts above $29,700.”
Popular trader Daan Crypto Trades held a similar opinion on short-term movements, noting that even weekend conditions were trending toward unusually calm extremes.
“Dancing around the CME Close price as expected. It’s been a long time since we’ve seen anything different,” he summarized.
“Volatility this time around was extremely low. Even for a weekend.”
An accompanying chart put the CME Bitcoin futures closing price for the week prior at $29,465 as the focal point for the start of the week.
Weekly close clinches key BTC pric level
The weekly close itself nonetheless did manage to offer a glimmer of hope for those analyzing longer-term trends.
Bitcoin, by a hair, managed to close the weekly candle above $29,250 — a key level highlighted in recent weeks by popular trader and analyst, Rekt Capital.
In an X post just before the event, Rekt Capital referenced previous BTC price behavior after a close at $29,250 or higher.
“BTC upside wicked into the ~$30200 region, much like last week and in April 2023,” he noted.
“But if $BTC is able to Weekly Close above ~$29250, then that upside wick won’t be as bearish.”
Providing a potential headwind was relative strength index (RSI) data, which on 1-week timeframes continued to print a bearish divergence with price.
“Weekly Bearish Divergence for BTC will continue to remain intact unless the RSI is able to break its downtrend (green),” Rekt Capital commented about the phenomenon.
Historical data gives little clue as to how BTC/USD might behave before the monthly close.
As Cointelegraph reported, August is a mixed bag when it comes to BTC price performance, and so far, Bitcoin has barely moved compared to the end of July.
Data from monitoring resource Coinglass shows that current gains of 0.6% mark Bitcoin’s quietest August month on record.
Low volatility spurs BTC price breakout predictions
It is hard to avoid the topic of volatility — or lack of it — when analyzing the current state of Bitcoin.
Despite heavy press coverage, even outside the crypto realm, the near total absence of snap price moves has been the defining characteristic of BTC price action for much of Q2.
The latest data lays bare just how static the landscape has become — and what should come afterward.
The Bitcoin Historical Volatility Index (BVOL) currently measures 9.57 on weekly timeframes, rapidly retracing to all-time lows from the start of this year.
What happened when Bitcoin broke out from a downtrend in January is no secret, with its Q1 upside totalling 70%.
“The volatility on Bitcoin is getting lower and lower,” Van de Poppe thus stated.
“A matter of 1-2 weeks before we’ll be having a big move on the…
cointelegraph.com
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