Bitcoin (BTC) starts a new week keeping traders guessing near its highest levels in 18 months — what’s next?BTC price action has held higher after spi
Bitcoin (BTC) starts a new week keeping traders guessing near its highest levels in 18 months — what’s next?
BTC price action has held higher after spiking above $38,000 last week, but since then, a testing “micro-range” has left bulls and bears locked in battle.
Whether a deeper retracement will come or a trip to $40,000 will leave naysayers behind is now the key short-term question for market participants.
Coming up over the next few days are various potential catalysts to help effect trend emergence for Bitcoin, while underneath, there are mounting signs that the market is due a boost.
Volatility is set to come at the hands of the monthly close later on, but before then, a host of macroeconomic events has the ability to inject some surprise price action.
Cointelegraph takes a look at these issues and more in the weekly rundown of Bitcoin price volatility triggers for the week ahead.
Monthly close looms with BTC price up less than 10%
The monthly close forms the key diary date for day traders this week, with Bitcoin at a crossroads.
As Cointelegraph reported, untested liquidity levels to the downside and the lure of $40,000 to the upside — this surrounded by resistance — makes for a stubborn daily trading range.
Neither bulls nor bears have been able to dislodge an increasingly narrow corridor for BTC/USD, and even new higher highs on daily teimframes have been few and short lived.
At the latest weekly close, a timely drop saw bids beginning to be filled, with Bitcoin dropping to lows of $37,100 before recovering, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows.
For popular trader Skew, it is now time for bid momentum to return.
“Spot takers led the bounce & eventually perp takers were the forced bid; mostly shorts forced out of the market,” he wrote in part of dedicated analysis on X (formerly Twitter.)
“Now as we go into EU session & US session important to see if spot bids or not.”
Skew likewise referenced blocks of liquidity both above and below spot price, with $37,000 and $38,000 the key levels to watch.
“Lots of bid liquidity below $37K so if spot takers continue to be net sellers this would be the momentum required to fill those limit bids below,” he wrote about the order book on largest global exchange Binance.
“As for ask liquidity aka supply, that remains between $38K – $40K area ~ important area for higher.”
With the monthly close just days away, Bitcoin is currently up 7.8% month-to-date, making November 2023 thoroughly average compared to years gone by.
Data from monitoring resource CoinGlass shows that November is normally characterized by much stronger BTC price moves, and that these can be both up and down.
Q4 overall, meanwhile, has so far delivered gains of nearly 40%.
Key Fed inflation markers lead macro catalysts
A classic macro week with volatility triggers to match awaits Bitcoin traders as November draws to a close.
The United States Federal Reserve will receive some key data on inflation over the coming days, this feeding into next month’s decision on interest rate policy.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell will speak on Dec. 1, following comments from senior Fed officials throughout the week.
The data releases of the most interest to markets will likely be Q3 GDP and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) print for October, coming Nov. 29 and Nov. 30, respectively.
Previously, U.S. macro data began to show inflation abating more quickly than markets expected, leading to positive reevaluations among risk assets.
Key Events This Week:
1. New Home Sales data – Monday
2. Consumer Confidence data – Tuesday
3. Q3 GDP data – Wednesday
4. PCE Inflation data – Thursday
5. Fed Chair Powell Speaks – Friday
6. Total of 10 Fed speaker events
We are two weeks out from the December Fed meeting.
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) November 26, 2023
“Full trading week ahead and volatility is here to stay,” financial commentary resource The Kobeissi Letter summarized on X.
Data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool currently puts the odds of the Fed holding rates at current levels at an almost unanimous 99.5%.
GBTC eyes BTC price parity
While Bitcoin is still waiting for U.S. regulators to greenlight the country’s first spot price exchange-traded fund (ETF), markets show that the mood continues to palpably change for the better.
Nowhere is this more apparent than in the largest Bitcoin instuttional investment vehicle, the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC).
Itself due to be converted to a spot ETF, GBTC is fast approaching parity with its underlying asset pair, BTC/USD.
Once nearly 50% lower, the GBTC share price had a mere 8% discount to net asset value, or NAV, as of Nov. 24, per CoinGlass data.
The fund’s renaissance has…
cointelegraph.com
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