Bitcoin (BTC) starts a new week under $30,000 as analysts’ predictions of a short-term support retest come true. The largest cryptocurrency saw a clas
Bitcoin (BTC) starts a new week under $30,000 as analysts’ predictions of a short-term support retest come true.
The largest cryptocurrency saw a classic dive following its latest weekly close as its latest gains evaporated — will they return?
Ahead of a fairly innocuous week for macro data releases, catalysts are likely to come elsewhere as BTC price action makes a decision on a key support zone.
Much is at stake for traders, as the week prior offered the opportunity to reinvestigate altcoins as Bitcoin itself cooled its upside. With a retracement now in effect, attention will be on whether those altcoins can hold at their own higher levels.
Under the hood, it appears to be business as usual for Bitcoin — network fundamentals, already at or near all-time highs, show no definitive signs of a comedown of their own this week.
It may be too early to determine how price performance will impact hodlers, but the temptation to sell at ten-month highs must be clear — the percentage of the overall BTC supply now in profit is at an impressive 75%.
Cointelegraph takes a look at these factors and more in the weekly rundown of potential Bitcoin price triggers.
BTC price: $30,000 hangs in the balance
After a “boring” weekend for BTC price action, volatility returned in classic style at the April 16 weekly close.
With it came a return to $30,000 for BTC/USD, this marking its first major support retest since hitting ten-month highs above $31,000 last week.
Traders and analysts had widely predicted the move, arguing that it would constitute a healthy retracement to prepare for continuation of the uptrend.
Re-bought everything that I took profit on.
I’ll reduce below $29.7K BTC and $2K on ETH.
Worst case scenario, I make a little less money on the overall positions. Best case scenario, I make a lot of money.
But generally speaking, risk is definable enough for me to re-enter. https://t.co/WH3vUVciY8
— Loma (@LomahCrypto) April 16, 2023
Cointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm Eight, was among those eyeing a buy-in just below $30,000, but kept his options open in the case of a deeper correction.
“Bitcoin is getting towards the long areas. Back towards the range low, through which a sweep can be granted as an entry point towards $32K,” he told Twitter followers.
“$28,600 could also be a long entry, but then I think we won’t be starting to make new highs, for now.”
Analytics resource Skew noted how the dip had played out on exchanges, noting a “clean divergence” between spot sellers and derivatives traders.
$BTC LTF Aggregate CVDs & Delta
Spot driven sell off out of daily open here, there was a clean divergence between spot selling the bounce early & perps longing into the bounce. pic.twitter.com/fnpk3x8VbV— Skew Δ (@52kskew) April 17, 2023
“This is exactly the BTC retest I was talking about,” popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital meanwhile continued, striking an optimistic note.
“$BTC is currently successfully retesting the top of the Bull Flag price broke out from a few days ago. Hold here would be a good contributing sign for continuation.”
An accompanying chart showed BTC/USD close to resting on an important trend line on daily timeframes.
A more cautious Daan Crypto Trades nonetheless flagged a tug-of-war between bulls and those simply trading the current range.
“Bitcoin Range Traders having the time of their lives while breakout traders are getting trapped on these range deviations/wicks,” part of commentary stated on the day.
“Likely to keep ranging until one side gives up.”
Earnings dominate macro debate
After a key week of macroeconomic data releases, the coming days are set to offer risk asset traders some comparative respite.
United States jobless claims and manufacturing figures will come toward the end of the week, but the macro focus will be elsewhere — specifically on earnings.
These are due, among others, from heavyweights Tesla and Netflix, as well as a slew of banks — all keenly watched by market participants in the wake of recent events.
“Earnings season is officially here,” financial commentary resource The Kobeissi Letter summarized.
Last week, Tedtalksmacro, a financial commentator also focusing on crypto, summed up the current environment as highly favorable to continued Bitcoin upside.
“Price breaking bear market structure, macro data trending favourably, momentum oscillators reset + USD liquidity higher than pre-tightening levels… Yet the majority continue to look for swing shorts to new lows,” he stated.
“~500 days of bear has created a strong recency bias…”
When it comes to stock markets themselves, however, the picture appears muddier — consensus among market participants is hard to ascertain.
Sven Henrich, CEO of NorthmanTrader, called for…
cointelegraph.com