Bitcoin (BTC) starts the second week of August with barely a sound as rangebound BTC price behavior continues.After one of its least volatile weekly c
Bitcoin (BTC) starts the second week of August with barely a sound as rangebound BTC price behavior continues.
After one of its least volatile weekly closes, BTC/USD remains stuck to $29,000 — can the coming seven days provide what is needed to break the deadlock?
Headlining the list of potential volatility catalysts is United States inflation data in the form of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) — a key readout on the way to the next interest rate decision in September.
With Bitcoin famously stubborn this quarter, however, it may take more than that for it to rediscover a trend.
Elsewhere, on-chain data is pointing to an accumulation phase for whales and other larger investors. Network fundamentals are due to inch higher, while the number of new wallets is defying price action and continuing to grow.
Cointelegraph takes a look at the main topics of interest to keep in mind this week when it comes to BTC price action.
Bitcoin price predictions trend lower after silent weekly close
Bitcoin closed the week without a sound, keeping its narrow trading range firmly in place and offering nothing by way of last-minute surprises.
Data shows BTC/USD acting in a $200 corridor overnight, a status quo still in play at the time of writing.
For popular traders, this risks lower levels entering next, as bulls lack momentum to beat out selling pressure below the key resistance levels of $29,250, $29,500 and $30,000.
“BTC continues to reject at ~$29250. As long as that continues, bias favours to lower prices,” trader and analyst Rekt Capital summarized.
Eyeing a possible support zone immediately below spot price, fellow trader Credible Crypto argued that volatility could pick up simply as a result of the working week returning.
“In any case, want to see some strength here soon or else we might still have one more local low to go (which would be fine),” he told Twitter followers in part of recent analysis.
A pretty muted reaction off of our green zone thus far, but it’s also a weekend so might see some strength once the week starts.
In any case, want to see some strength here soon or else we might still have one more local low to go (which would be fine). $BTC https://t.co/Lm4lqxqUFZ pic.twitter.com/3kQ38dbjnb
— CrediBULL Crypto (@CredibleCrypto) August 7, 2023
Continuing, Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm Eight, suggested that Monday could provide a local low for Bitcoin to act upon through the week.
“Monday coming up, usually a day that Bitcoin makes it’s standard drop. In that case, targeting $28K to bid,” he said.
“If we do not drop to that region, then I clearly want to see a break above $29.7K to add on my longs.”
Querying the return of BTC volatility
Overall, however, Bitcoin is suffering from a clear case of suppressed volume, leading volatility to head back to its lowest-ever levels.
On weekly timeframes, popular trader Skew noted, volume was all but absent. An accompanying volume profile chart showed the background behind Bitcoin’s current multi-month trading range between $26,000 and $32,000.
$BTC 1W Volume Profile (range Nov 2020 – Current)
Pretty useful when it comes to key levels / market inflection pointsKey points for volume profile:
HVN – High Volume Node
LVN – Low Volume Node
POC – Point of control
VA – Value AreaJust used the total volume profile here so… pic.twitter.com/49mKz4rV9h
— Skew Δ (@52kskew) August 7, 2023
“Realized volatility for Bitcoin has collapsed to historical lows,” Checkmate, lead on-chain analyst at Glassnode, continued at the weekend.
Uploading a chart of Bitcoin’s annualized realized volatility, Checkmate revealed that such flat behavior was last seen over three years ago in the months after the March 2020 COVID-19 cross-market crash.
“Across 1-month to 1yr timeframes, this is the quietest we have seen the corn since after March 2020,” he added.
“Historically, such low volatility aligns with the post-bear-market hangover periods (re-accumulation phase).”
“Reaccumulation” becomes Bitcoin buzzword
The term “reaccumulation” is one appearing frequently in current market conditions.
As Cointelegraph reported, attention is on Bitcoin whales in particular, as these slowly maneuver into what could be the next run to all-time highs.
Reaccumulation has characterized the landscape after every BTC price cycle bear market, and analysts are hoping that this time is no different.
“Retail sold this last bear market, whales didn’t flinch,” popular technical analyst CryptoCon argued last week.
“The wind is at our backs this cycle, this is big.”
With whales holding back from selling compared to previous bear markets, while still entering reaccumulation, the bullish case for what comes next is strengthening.
It is not just whales — day traders are giving market…
cointelegraph.com