Bitcoin (BTC) starts a new week with traders still digesting the impact of the last — a major price drop that at one point saw $41,900.A modest rec
Bitcoin (BTC) starts a new week with traders still digesting the impact of the last — a major price drop that at one point saw $41,900.
A modest recovery is now competing with some formidable resistance, first of which is $50,000.
As a sense of déjà vu pervades markets, analysts are coming to terms with the fact that the end of Q4 2021 will likely not produce the blow-off top that they had anticipated.
There is also concern that another, deeper, BTC price floor may have to enter before a genuine recovery takes place.
What could happen in the last few weeks of the year? Cointelegraph takes a look at five factors on everyone’s radar for the coming week.
Ranging into “bullish” Q1 2022?
After nearing $50,000 earlier this weekend, BTC/USD is now back around $48,000 — still down 16% in a week.
Against all-time highs of $69,000, the maximum loss overnight on Friday is so far 39% — significant, yet by no means record-breaking in Bitcoin terms.
______ ~40% Corrections 2W RSI Floor Breaks
2013 4 1 (bear confirmed)
2017 7 1 (bear confirmed)
2021 6 0 (excluding Mar 2020) pic.twitter.com/B1nwFEDwKP— TechDev (@TechDev_52) December 5, 2021
As price predictions dry up, attention is now focusing on a revival into 2022.
“For what it’s worth, my base case is that we consolidate/range till EOY, carve out a regime of mixed-negative funding rates/premium, before bullish Q1,” William Clemente forecast in a Twitter discussion.
A focus when it comes to the sustainability of price recovery will be derivatives markets after their cascade of position liquidations.
Yesterday’s liquidation cascade was the second largest single day event of 2021 in #BTC terms, bested only by the May 19 crash in sheer size. pic.twitter.com/tRKPCJn6J8
— TXMC (@TXMCtrades) December 5, 2021
Friday’s events managed to somewhat “reset” open interest on Bitcoin futures to levels last seen in September at similar price levels to the pit of the dip.
New CPI data, new Inflation woes
Macro markets are already on a knife-edge, but this week may add some familiar fuel to the fire in the form of fresh consumer price index (CPI) data.
Due for November, U.S. CPI readings are tipped to outstrip even October’s shock 6.2% year-on-year reading.
Economists’ prognoses were noted by Lyn Alden, financial commentator and founder of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy. She added that housing, a lagging indicator not as present last month, would likely be a factor in the results.
Economists on average expect next week’s CPI print for what happened in November to be 6.7% year-over-year (up from 6.2% in the month prior) and for the month-over-month print to be 0.7% (down from the month prior’s 0.9%). pic.twitter.com/ljOEZQVDBz
— Lyn Alden (@LynAldenContact) December 5, 2021
Inflation already hit the headlines again last week after Jerome Powell, Chair of the Federal Reserve, appeared to imply that “transitory” was no longer an apt description of it.
Bitcoin immediately reacted, and bulls will be keenly eyeing the new CPI data in the hope of a similar knee-jerk response to that from October.
The cryptocurrency, despite recent volatility, is argued to be the best possible workaround for purchasing power protection, not least as inflation is in fact much higher when assets not covered by CPI are factored in.
“Everyone has double-digit inflation if they measure it correctly and needs Bitcoin more than they realize,” MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor, a well-known CPI critic in Bitcoin circles, warned late last month.
Central bank money printing, notably by the Fed, meanwhile recently attracted public criticism from the head of another sovereign state.
“Can you guys just stop printing more money? You’re just going to make things worse,” Nayib Bukele, President of El Salvador, responded to Powell’s “transitory” speech.
“Really. It’s a no brainer.”
Mind the gap!
Bitcoin faces a “giant” futures gap this week — one so large that it may not close immediately, but traders should not forget about it, says Cointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe.
With derivatives traders only adding to downside pressure at the weekend, futures may nonetheless form a target for positive momentum.
CME futures closed Friday at $53,545 — a full $5,000 higher than spot price levels at the time of writing.
In line with tradition, BTC/USD may well rise to “fill” that gap, paving the way for at least a reclaim of $50,000 and support and possibly even its $1 trillion market cap.
“There’s going to be a massive CME gap to $53.5K later today,” Van de Poppe forecast Sunday.
“Quite often, like 99% of the time, they close at some point. At least an important level to watch coming weeks if the market continues to bounce for Bitcoin.”
cointelegraph.com