Bitcoin (BTC) keeps pushing for a bullish end to February as the monthly close starts another week’s price action.The largest cryptocurrency looks set
Bitcoin (BTC) keeps pushing for a bullish end to February as the monthly close starts another week’s price action.
The largest cryptocurrency looks set to preserve its gains as it closes the second month of 2023 — and is keeping bulls’ hopes alive in the process.
Can the good times continue? The coming week could mean decision time for a key area of BTC price action around $25,000.
Analysts are eyeing a breakout toward $30,000 if support can become more permanent, while concerns nonetheless remain that a trip back towards resistance reclaimed in January is still on the cards.
Amid a quiet week for macroeconomic data, any catalysts for determining whether BTC/USD goes up or down may come from within Bitcoin itself.
One thing is for sure, on-chain data shows — long-term Bitcoin hodlers are in no mood for selling yet, and at current prices continue to add to their BTC exposure en masse.
Cointelegraph takes a look at some of the major factors to bear in mind when it comes to what Bitcoin might do in the coming week.
Bitcoin monthly close precludes March trend showdown
It looked touch-and-go into the weekend, but Bitcoin has managed to avoid a major retracement and reversed upward into the new week.
A weekly close at around $23,500 was music to the ears of those keen to see a bullish rebound sooner rather than later.
“BTC has managed to break back above the ~$23400 level which is the Range High of the macro Monthly Range,” popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital explained.
“This is what BTC needs to keep doing for a bullish bias as February nears its end. Upcoming Monthly Close will be very interesting.”
At current levels, BTC/USD is up around 1.25% in February 2023 — modest by historical standards but still conspicuous in preserving the year’s gains.
For Rekt Capital, March marks the real make-or-break month for BTC/USD as it approaches a long-term trend line, a break of which would signal a full trend reversal.
“February nears its close & indeed not too much excitement for BTC, as has historically been the case for a pre-breakout Monthly Candle,” he continued.
“Given how the Macro Downtrend is a sloping trendline, the breakout price for BTC will be a little lower in March at ~$24500.”
A further post reiterated $25,000 as the level to break in order to “confirm” a macro uptrend.
Fellow trader Crypto Chase was more categorical about short-term price action. In a tweet overnight, he likewise flagged $25,000 as the line in the sand.
“Perfect tag of 22.7 and bounce. Weekend move though.. I wouldn’t be surprised to see another retest of the 0.618 or a 3rd drive,” he commented about the weekend lows.
“At that point, it becomes make or break for me. Hold and we can still see 25K+ liq, lose it and 20K next.”
4h chart – short term bullish reversal pic.twitter.com/ukjn3kOqIh
— Stockmoney Lizards (@StockmoneyL) February 26, 2023
Trading resource Stockmoney Lizards meanwhile described a “short term bullish reversal” for both price and relative strength index (RSI) on the 4-hour chart as the weekend drew to an end.
Macro focus flips to central bank liquidity
In a refreshing change to the previous two weeks, U.S. macroeconomic data releases will be more subdued at the start of March.
As Cointelegraph reported, however, analysts are increasingly eyeing counterpart releases from Asia as a potential BTC price influencer.
Central bank liquidity injections — running contrast to the Federal Reserve — remain a key topic.
“Global liquidity – projected to rise in 2023, but recently has pulled back,” popular commentator Tedtalksmacro tweeted on the day.
“- China injected ~$450Bn into money markets during December + January – US liquidity has flat lined, government liquidity has outpaced Fed QT recently. Markets are a product of liquidity * risk appetite.”
Tedtalksmacro nonetheless highlighted a potential countertrend in the form of Japan’s central bank, the Bank of Japan (BoJ), which he warned may yet resort to financial tightening to tame inflation.
“On Friday last week, Japanese core inflation printed at the highest level since 1981 –> fueling speculation that the BOJ will need to tighten after years of extremely easy monetary policy,” he noted.
Comparing U.S. macro asset performance to crypto following the January Consumer Price Index (CPI) data print, meanwhile, he added that crypto assets remained “stubborn” despite others beginning to move higher.
Analysis platform Mosaic Asset focused on the potential for the Fed to hike benchmark interest rates more than expected at its March meeting.
“With no signs that the economy is slowing and yet another inflation report running hotter than expected last week…that’s ratcheting up pressure on the…
cointelegraph.com