Bitcoin (BTC) goes for a late September comeback as the monthly and quarterly close arrive.
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BTC price action surprises with a push above $112,000 for the weekly close, setting up a tug-of-war between bulls and bears.
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Liquidity games are back, but observers warn of a move down to liquidate late longs next.
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Employment data from the US forms the week’s macro highlight amid ongoing pressure on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.
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Gold sets fresh all-time highs to start the week, sparking calls for Bitcoin to follow at last.
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On-chain data shows speculators panic-selling BTC at the lows, while old hands stay put.
Bitcoin bulls battle for control of $112,000
It seemed highly unlikely recently, but Bitcoin closed the weekly candle above a key price level.
After threatening new September lows under $109,000, BTC/USD staged a last-minute rebound to reclaim $112,000 as support.
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView confirms that BTC price point holding into the week’s first Asia trading session.
Commenting on the latest BTC price action, market participants remained wary, arguing that more evidence is needed before assuming the bull market is back in full force.
“$BTC also had a pump just like $ETH, mostly due to short positions getting closed,” crypto investor and entrepreneur Ted Pillows wrote in a post on X, referring to a similar recovery for largest altcoin Ether (ETH).
“For a strong Bitcoin rally, a daily close above $113,500 is needed. Otherwise, BTC will most likely revisit its lows again.”
Popular trader Roman shared that sentiment, expecting the price to gyrate between its narrow trading range’s upper and lower boundaries.
“Currently just retesting and resistance so unless we blow through on high volume, I expect some ping pong between here and 108k,” he summarized, demanding that bulls retake $118,000.
With the monthly and quarterly close less than 48 hours away, volatility was expected.
Data from CoinGlass shows that at $112,000, BTC/USD would lock in 3% September gains, with Q3 upside at around 4.4%.
Those numbers would represent average performance for Bitcoin, with both September and Q3 returns historically highly variable.
“$BTC Has seen very little volatility and is closing the quarter relatively flat. This is not out of the ordinary for Q3 as you can see,” popular trader Daan Crypto Trades wrote about the data in an X post Monday.
“It’s the worst quarter on average with ‘only’ a ~6% increase on average throughout its history. So we’re pretty much in line just like Q2.”
Daan Crypto Trades conversely anticipated a “very exciting” Q4 based on past performance.
“BTC has been pretty reliable though so it makes more sense to watch in my opinion. Especially with it lagging behind the likes of $GOLD & Stocks the past few weeks,” he concluded.
Long liquidations on the radar as new CME gap appears
Bitcoin returning above $112,000 overnight sparked a considerable reshuffling of liquidity on exchange order books.
CoinGlass data shows how price sliced through late short positions, with large players subsequently adding more ask liquidity around $113,000.
In the 24 hours to the time of writing, total crypto liquidations were $350 million, with shorts accounting for $260 million of the total.
Commenting on the order-book setup, market commentators are now keen to determine where BTC price may head next, with liquidity acting as a “magnet” both up and down.
“I like when the market sentiment is bearish after a correction during a HTF uptrend,” popular trader CrypNuevo wrote in part of an X thread Sunday.
“I think it’s the case – a drop below $100k seems to be the market consensus right now. So instead, I’m inclining more towards a recovery from here or the liquidity grab at $106.9k and then up.”
Current data suggests that a trip below $107,000 would liquidate a giant $5 billion in longs.
This and the incoming monthly close continue to provide grounds for caution among some market participants.
These include popular trader Killa, who noted the new weekend “gap” appearing in CME Group’s Bitcoin futures — a price “magnet” on its own.
“If we re-evaluate price action, we pumped on CME open. Usually, when we do that, these particular gaps can take a few days or a week to fill,” he noted Monday.
“Since we have both monthly and quarterly closes, I believe they’re building long liquidity before taking out the weekend lows.”
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cointelegraph.com