Bitcoin (BTC) begins a new week barely clinging to $30,000 as a “bearish divergence” sets the tone.After a quiet weekend, BTC price action faces a pot
Bitcoin (BTC) begins a new week barely clinging to $30,000 as a “bearish divergence” sets the tone.
After a quiet weekend, BTC price action faces a potential pullback period within its broader bullish trend, traders say.
What could be on the menu for the market this week?
After a relative period of calm, external triggers are back for risk assets, with a slew of United States macroeconomic data releases combining with multiple speeches from Federal Reserve officials.
Add to that some interesting dynamics around U.S. BTC buying now in play and the recipe for volatility is there.
Cointelegraph takes a look at these factors and more in the weekly rundown of what might move markets in the coming days.
Limp $30,000 support gets traders hungry for BTC price dip
Bitcoin may have closed the week at just above $30,000, confirmed by data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView, but its strength is now looking less convincing.
A dip into the $20,000 zone immediately afterward set the tone for traders, who believe that a retracement period could enter before upside resumes.
“Will be looking for trend continuation so another higher low between current price & $28K,” trader Skew explained in his short-term forecast.
“Else obvious weakness leads to a break in the 1W structure (Equal high & LL below $25K).”
Fellow trader Jelle eyed a warning sign on weekly timeframes.
“Bitcoin locked in a weekly bearish divergence overnight,” he told Twitter followers about relative strength index (RSI) behavior after the candle close.
“Time to play defense for a while. The bull market is coming, but pullbacks are part of the game. Bidding lower, let’s see.”
For Crypto Tony, the downside could be limited to $29,500, this complementing a previous trip to new yearly highs the week prior.
“Sweep of $29,500 makes sense to me as the bulls just seem weaker and weaker right now. We have a sweep of the liquidity above us, so now it is time to grab the liquidity below us If you are not yet in a position, be sure to wait for this test and reclaim,” he summarized.
A further post zoomed out to predict up to 40% higher for BTC/USD in 2023, this nonetheless to be followed by a “bigger correction.”
8 Fed speakers accompany major macro data week
Macro commentators have their work cut out this week as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) leads U.S. economic data prints.
Due on July 12, CPI showing inflation dropping will go some way to lessening a still-hawkish Fed.
Markets almost unanimously agree that interest rates will rise again this month after last month’s pause, with trend-beating data nonetheless apt to spark some last-minute uncertainty.
CPI will be followed by Producer Price Index (PPI) a day later, while a total of eight Fed officials will deliver remarks on the economy and policy.
“Volatility is set to return to markets this week,” financial commentary resource, The Kobeissi Letter, forecast while summarizing the calendar.
Fed Speakers This Week:
1. Fed Vice Chair Barr – Monday
2. FOMC Member Daly – Monday
3. FOMC Member Mester – Monday
4. FOMC Member Bostic – Monday
5. FOMC Member Bullard – Tuesday
6. FOMC Member Kashkari – Wednesday
7. FOMC Member Mester – Wednesday
8. Fed Board…— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) July 9, 2023
The latest data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool put rate hike odds at 92% at the time of writing, slightly down from last week’s 95% figure.
Continuing, financial commentator Tedtalksmacro argued that core CPI would be the figure to watch for the Fed.
“Headline is expected to fall to 3.20% YoY, which would make for the lowest print since March 2021. The Cleveland Fed, University of Michigan + Truflation all anticipating a similar number,” he noted in part of a Twitter thread.
“Core CPI is expected to tick lower to 5.1% YoY, the lowest level since November 2021. Core remains the concern for the market, and I’d anticipate the market gives it more weight in it’s reaction on Wednesday.”
Bitcoin mining difficulty following hash rate to fresh record high
In a refreshing turnaround, Bitcoin network fundamentals are gearing up to hit new all-time highs in the coming days.
The latest estimates from BTC.com predict that network difficulty will jump by more than 5% — its largest single upward adjustment since late March.
Given stagnant price action, this is significant, speaking to ongoing competition in the mining sector and increasing belief in future profitability. In doing so, difficulty will cancel out its previous dip to hit new record highs of around 53.2 trillion.
cointelegraph.com