Bitcoin (BTC) starts a new week just under $22,000 as bulls fail to reclaim lost ground in February.
After some modest volatility towards the weekly close, BTC/USD is still near three-week lows as a new status quo enters with $22,000 as resistance.
The largest cryptocurrency stands at the beginning of an important week of macroeconomic data, however, with plenty of opportunities for volatility to return.
These come first and foremost in the form of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI), the January print for which will be released on Feb. 14.
Other data prints will follow throughout the week, and analysts are keenly eyeing crypto markets’ response, along with that of the U.S. dollar.
Within Bitcoin circles, whales are taking the opportunity to buy at current levels, data shows, in a glimmer of hope for those hoping that the 2023 Bitcoin price recovery may continue.
At the same time, a formidable new chart event is causing discomfort for some — can Bitcoin avoid significant downside as its first ever weekly “death cross” confirms?
Cointelegraph takes a look at these issues and more in the weekly digest of potential Bitcoin market triggers for the week ahead.
Bitcoin confirms weekly chart “breakdown”
At around $21,800, the latest weekly close had few surprises in store for those on either side of the Bitcoin trade, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows.
Its lowest since mid-January, the event sealed a long-awaited retracement for BTC/USD after it spent January experiencing practically unchecked upside.
Now, attention is focusing on key support levels holding, these mostly in the form of long-term trend lines reclaimed as support during the January run-up.
In a fresh update for Twitter followers on Feb. 13, popular trader Crypto Tony confirmed that $21,400 was where the situation may get interesting.
“From there we can really assess whether the bulls have it in them to save the bears, or lead them to slaughter,” part of commentary read.
Zooming in, fellow account Daan Crypto Trades noted that BTC/USD sat between the 200-period and 400-period exponential moving average (EMA) on 4-hour timeframes.
“It looks like we will open up with a small gap below us as we speak. Overall just a choppy weekend for BTC with some alts popping. Waiting for CPI. Probably won’t make many actions before that,” he summarized.
A more formidable line in the sand meanwhile comes in the form the 200-day MA. While still at $20,000, the level now constitutes an important one to hold for bulls to remain in control.
Sunday Night Musings
Shared earlier in the BTC Report but key points:
– Weekly OB
– Jan high taken
– HTF FVG’s drawing price
– 200MA lining up with prior consolidation
– Let’s see how market sentiment opens
– Plans for both but favouring the pull backHappy Sunday pic.twitter.com/AkTqqarX8a
— B C Richfield (@BC_Richfield) February 12, 2023
On weekly timeframes, the picture is no better, trader and analyst Rekt Capital warns. Flagging $21,839 as the point of interest, he said that a weekly close below this would “confirm the breakdown” in BTC/USD, a move which ultimately came true.
That same level had acted as resistance several times since the middle of last year.
“Most important” CPI print arrives
The macro landscape is set to be dominated by one data point in particular this week with the Feb. 14 release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January.
Bets are on for inflation continuing to decline in a move which could still buoy risk assets despite a comedown in early February.
The picture is complicated by a reshuffling of how CPI is calculated, but analysts dispute its significance versus the overall trend of inflation receding.
Regardless of that, however, this month’s print is being closely eyed far beyond crypto circles.
“Tuesday’s CPI report is the most important report to date. After a strong January jobs report and December CPI ‘revised’ higher, uncertainty is everywhere,” capital markets newsletter, The Kobeissi Letter, told Twitter followers at the weekend.
“Both bulls and bears need the report to go their way. Whichever side is right will drive the market for the next month.”
Popular trader and analyst Myles G meanwhile underscored the consequences for crypto should CPI come in higher than expected, warning that this would “dump the market big.”
“Almost every CPI reveal last 6 months has been an instant dump, then an immediate recovery after traders digested the data,” fellow trader Satoshi Flipper noted about the relationship between CPI and market volatility.
“Will this time be different?”
The extent to which CPI plays a role in policy adjustments at the Federal Reserve is also a topic of debate at present, after Chair Jerome Powell suggested…
cointelegraph.com