Bitcoin (BTC) starts the new week with optimism as traders greet the first green weekly candle in over a month.BTC price strength appears to be gradua
Bitcoin (BTC) starts the new week with optimism as traders greet the first green weekly candle in over a month.
BTC price strength appears to be gradually improving after a weak August and start of September, with BTC/USD climbing toward $27,000.
A solid weekly close provides the backdrop to what promises to be an interesting few days, which will include a key United States macroeconomic event as a potential volatility driver.
The Federal Reserve will meet to decide on interest rate policy — and any surprises could have significant repercussions for risk assets, including crypto.
Elsewhere, things are looking promising for Bitcoin, with network fundamentals set to surge higher to new records.
Strength “under the hood” is similarly being reflected in hodler behavior, with wallet numbers continuing to shoot higher regardless of BTC price action.
Cointelegraph takes a look at these topics and more as Bitcoin begins what is likely its most eagerly-awaited week of September.
Trader eyes BTC price “local bottom”
Bitcoin offered little volatility over the weekend, but calmer trading conditions are already being challenged into the new week, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows.
The Sep. 17 weekly close soon gave way to upside volatility, and at the time of writing, bulls are attempting to build on that foundation to crack new month-to-date highs.
Popular trader Credible Crypto thus suggested that the weekend zone could well form a “local bottom.”
“This region continues to be defended, with buyers stepping in here once again. Has the makings of a local bottom/base being formed imo,” he told X subscribers overnight, alongside a chart of order book liquidity on largest global exchange Binance.
“I think we probs push back up to 27k+ soon.”
A prior post noted the lack of promise in shorting at weekend levels, with bid liquidity improving.
The weekly close meanwhile excited Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm Eight, who saw key support holding at the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA).
“Bitcoin is closing above the 200-Week EMA, which is vital for bullish continuation,” he explained.
“Next week we should continue to do so and price starts to look similar to the 2015/2016 cycle.”
Van de Poppe uploaded a chart showing the interplay between spot price and the 200-week EMA, currently at $25,700, since 2020.
“Markets are consolidating with a weekly close strongly above the 200-Week EMA for Bitcoin. The chances of the correction to be finished are increasing day by day,” he added in a separate post.
Some are staying sober on the outlook for Bitcoin into 2024. Among them is popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital, who continues to eye the potential for a bearish double top pattern to play out on weekly timeframes.
“Make no mistake – Bitcoin is in an early stage Bull Market,” he wrote in part of weekend X analysis.
“Long-term the outlook is bullish. Mid-term? Over the next 7 months, we may or may not get 1 last major correction. Will it happen? It would be wise to at least be ready for it if it does.”
FOMC volatility due with rate pause odds at 99%
The word on everyone’s lips this week is FOMC — the Federal Open Market Committee — which will meet to decide on interest rates going forward.
If history is a guide, the Sep. 20 decision will induce at least some form of volatility across risk assets, with Bitcoin and crypto no exception.
The landscape surrounding the latest FOMC meeting is mixed — last week’s macro data shows inflation beating expectations, yet markets overwhelmingly believe that the Fed will not raise rates further to combat it.
According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, the odds of rates remaining the same are almost unanimous.
This could reduce the impact of the FOMC event — but conversely, a curveball decision which goes against market appraisals would be felt all the more keenly.
“This week sets up the rest of 2023,” financial commentary resource The Kobeissi Letter summarized while highlighting upcoming macro data releases and more.
“Fed guidance on Wednesday sets the tone for the next few meetings. Expect to see lots of volatility this week.”
Key Events This Week:
1. Building Permits data – Tuesday
2. Housing Starts data – Tuesday
3. Fed Interest Rate Decision – Wednesday
4. Fed Press Conference – Wednesday
5. Jobless Claims – Thursday
6. Existing Home Sales data – Thursday
This week sets up the rest of 2023.
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) September 17, 2023
Explaining the likely outcome of FOMC, crypto and macro insight resource Ecoinometrics suggested that the market odds were no surprise based on Fed signals.
“There will be no rate hike at the FOMC…
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