Bitcoin (BTC) goes into another key macro week in the United States with a welcome break to the upside.After avoiding a now-familiar breakdown around
Bitcoin (BTC) goes into another key macro week in the United States with a welcome break to the upside.
After avoiding a now-familiar breakdown around the weekly close, BTC/USD is surging higher at the time of writing on Aug. 8 to once more tackle resistance in place for two months.
Can the bulls win out? Momentum appears to be strong across crypto, but a host of potential stumbling blocks lie in the way.
With fresh U.S. inflation data due, the macro picture could yet upset the status quo, while sellers likewise show no sign of budging to allow reclaim of levels above $25,000.
Amid continued claims that Bitcoin is enjoying nothing more than a “bear market rally,” Cointelegraph takes a look at the state of play on the market as the new week begins.
These five factors will be worth bearing in mind when considering where Bitcoin price action could be going over the coming days.
BTC seals 2nd week above key bear market support
Unlike recent weeks, Bitcoin allowed traders to breathe a sigh of relief at the Aug. 7 weekly close.
Instead of declining at or immediately after the candle close, BTC/USD instead began gaining, these gains including an impressive hourly candle, which saw almost $500 added.
The close in itself was impressive, constituting Bitcoin’s highest weekly candle close since June — a firm break from the previous weekly downtrend — data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows.
In addition, BTC’s price defended its key 200-week moving average (MA) two closes in a row, cementing the likelihood of that trendline now forming support. This comes despite multiple retests during the week, with the 200-week MA sitting at around $22,900.
The market was spared the craziness and #Bitcoin D and W candles closed as the Trend Precognition algos predicted. Bear Market Rally continues. https://t.co/anTpoYD9kK
— Material Indicators (@MI_Algos) August 8, 2022
Prior to the close, some were already predicting volatility.
im surprised the market hasn’t moved yet
Maybe will this week#Bitcoin— Kevin Svenson (@KevinSvenson_) August 7, 2022
For popular trading account TraderSZ on Twitter, this would take the form of a “big violent move,” one which ended up being to the upside.
“I know it’s hard to convince you that $BTC has touched the Bottom. But you can’t ignore it. Never Break This Line in History,” fellow account Jibon added alongside a weekly chart featuring another MA trendline.
Looking at possible targets, anywhere between $25,000 and $28,000, commentators believe, with Cointelegraph already reporting on one trader’s expectations of a $30,000 retest.
Seems like a band test is coming the following weeks.
25.5k-28k#Bitcoin pic.twitter.com/G1GghvhcSo
— Trend Rider (@TrendRidersTR) August 8, 2022
Analyzing separate data governing two exponential moving averages (EMAs), meanwhile, trading resource Stockmoney Lizards agreed with Jibon about a macro bottom already being complete for Bitcoin.
“Cycles repeat. Shortly after EMA bands crossing, cycle low is in. From there, the uptrend is close,” it summarized on Aug. 7:
“Mid-term target 38k – 40k which be in this descending resistance level area. After this, we’ll see a breakout and another bull run.”
$40,000, while lofty by today’s standards, is also not without its adherents — even as part of an extended bear market relief rally.
U.S. inflation picture compicated by falling commodities
The main macro event in what is otherwise a sleepy summer month is due in the coming days.
U.S. inflation will become top of the list of discussion topics in crypto and beyond on Aug. 10 as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures for July hit the radar.
The schedule is already ingrained in the minds of risk asset traders everywhere — while not indicative of a specific trend in and of themselves, CPI releases are reliably accompanied by market volatility before, during and after the fact.
The question on everyone’s lips this time around, however, is whether inflation has peaked.
Most anticipated data this week is CPI on Wednesday, estimates are 8.7, IF it comes in above we are back to crashy mode.
— Tom (@TradingThomas3) August 6, 2022
The question is complex: Fuel prices began decreasing in July, while CPI components such as rent prices conversely hit all-time highs.
The “sharp decline” in gasoline prices will create a “strong drag” on headline #CPI next week.
(via Morgan Stanley / Zentner) pic.twitter.com/fuJ0u7rwtO
— Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla) August 5, 2022
The decline in commodities is a key cause for optimism for Tesla CEO Elon Musk, as Cointelegraph reported, who used the trend as a basis for suggesting that inflation would be going down from here.
“This could change, obviously, but the trend is down, which suggests that we are past peak inflation,” he said during Tesla’s Annual Meeting of Stockholders last week.
#Powell knows that Uncle Sam…
cointelegraph.com