Bitcoin (BTC) starts the second week of June near two-week highs with traders keen to see bullish continuation.
Key points:
- BTC price action targets nearby liquidity as a trader names the “most important” support zone to hold next.
- US stock-market performance gives analysis reason to believe that the good times will continue amid “record” retail risk appetite.
- A stock-market correction is not out of the question, new warnings conclude, but Bitcoin should have already priced in the fallout.
- Exchange inflow data reveals cooling panic among both retail and whale investors.
- Crypto market sentiment is at monthly highs, on the cusp of exiting “extreme fear.”
Bitcoin key support emerges as bulls eye $64,000
Bitcoin kept up pressure on short positions into the weekly close, hitting $63,960 — its highest levels since June 23, per data from TradingView.
BTC/USD four-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
Total crypto short liquidations for the 24 hours to the time of writing were just over $100 million, CoinGlass reports.
BTC/USD vs. crypto liquidation history (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass
Commenting on low time frames, X account Exitpump was among those attributing the moves to liquidity hunts.
“Seeing aggressive selling from spot markets, spot CVD (yellow) trending down while perps CVD (blue) is flat,” they reported on Monday, referring to cumulative volume delta on exchange order books.
BTC/USD chart with order-book data. Source: Exitpump/X
In the event of a reversal downward, trader Killa called the zone between $60,400 and $60,900 Bitcoin’s “most important.”
“If we cannot hold this price region on a revisit, I’m afraid we are going to trend directly to the lows again. Something to watch out for next week,” the analyst told X followers.
BTC/USD chart. Source: Killa/X
As Cointelegraph continues to report, market participants still see Bitcoin’s bear-market low as yet to come — despite a growing number of bullish trend reversal signals.
Trader Roman, who was long bearish on BTC/USD, stayed optimistic on longer time frames this week.
“Still looking excellent to continue our reversal to see higher prices in the interim,” an X post read.
“I still have a feeling we put in one more macro low before the bottom is officially in, but there are dozens of macro reversal signs all over HTF.”
BTC/USDT one-week chart. Source: Roman/X
Retail risk appetite hits record levels
Bitcoin’s waning ability to copy equities is under the microscope this week as US stock futures start higher after the holiday weekend.
While BTC/USD managed a trip to near two-week highs, Nasdaq 100 futures added 1% as analysts remain bullish on the broader US outlook.
“Although the S&P 500 is coming off a hot second quarter with a 15% gain, the index topped in early June and has yet to make a new high,” trading resource Mosaic Asset Company wrote in the latest edition of its regular newsletter, The Market Mosaic.
“But the S&P 500 trading within a bullish continuation pattern and has been finding support at a key level.”
S&P 500 market data. Source: Mosaic Asset Company
Mosaic added that the average stock “has been rallying to new record highs.”
“That includes the equal-weight S&P 500, small-cap stocks with the Russell 2000 Index, and the NYSE advance/decline line. New highs minus new lows across major exchanges are jumping higher as well,” it noted.
As Cointelegraph reported, recent US inflation and labor-market data helped soften markets’ hawkish expectations for Federal Reserve policy last week.
The latest data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool sees the Fed holding interest rates at current levels in both July and September.
Fed target rate probabilities (screenshot). Source: CME Group
Another potential macro tailwind for Bitcoin comes in the form of retail investor demand for risk — despite the cohort’s crypto exodus this year. Analyzing options data, trading resource The Kobeissi Letter described retail risk appetite as being “at record levels.”
“Retail demand for short-term options has never been higher,” it reported on X.
This week, the Fed will release the minutes of its June meeting, where it likewise kept rates steady. Markets will also react to Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) numbers, along with more employment data releases.
“We expect another volatile week ahead as markets brace for earnings season,” Kobeissi added.
Warning over pre-Midterm stock market correction
Looking ahead, not all market participants are convinced that the persistent stocks bull market will last. Among them is Andre Dragosch, European head of research at crypto asset manager Bitwise.
“What if there is a bigger stock market correction right before the Midterms?” he queried in X posts on Monday, referring to upcoming US elections.
Dragosch flagged the latest data from the MacroQuant Equity Risk Model by macro analytics company BCA Research. This, he warned, was “flashing a bear market warning signal.”
An…
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