Over the past decade, issuance of Tether’s USDt (USDT) has consistently mirrored Bitcoin (BTC) price cycles, with mints often clustering around bull runs and burns following corrections.
Data from Whale Alert shows the relation between USDT issuance and Bitcoin price movements by plotting Tether’s net minting and burning alongside the price of Bitcoin from 2015 to early 2025.
While many in the industry have long speculated about the correlation between USDT supply and BTC performance, this data set provides a clearer timeline for evaluating that relationship.
Tether’s USDT, the world’s largest stablecoin with over $144 billion in market capitalization, has become a key liquidity vehicle in crypto markets and is often viewed as a proxy for broader capital inflows. The data from Whale Alert reinforces how tightly its issuance patterns track with Bitcoin’s price cycles, though the direction of causality remains up for debate.
Large issuances of USDT coincide with Bitcoin price spikes. Source: Whale Alert
According to crypto analyst and researcher Mads Eberhardt, a greater supply of stablecoins — including Tether — has historically correlated with positive performance in crypto markets. This relationship is also evident when looking at Tether’s mint and burn chart over time.
“However, it’s important to note that we have not observed this correlation over the past few months,” Eberhardt said. “I expect that as stablecoins see increasing adoption in non-native crypto use cases, this correlation will gradually weaken over time.”
USDT issuance and Bitcoin price spikes
Whale Alert’s data shows a consistent pattern of periods of aggressive USDT minting frequently coinciding with or closely preceding major Bitcoin bull runs. This was also apparent in late 2020 and throughout 2024 when net new USDT issuance climbed into the tens of billions as Bitcoin’s price accelerated upward.
A series of large USDT mints in late October and November 2024 accompanied Bitcoin’s rise from $66,700 to over $106,000. Source: Whale Alert
In a more recent example, Bitcoin went on a bull run from $66,700 on Oct. 25, 2024, to over $106,000 on Dec. 16. The first significant mint in this cycle was a $1-billion issuance at the end of BTC’s trip to $72,000 on Oct. 30, before a short-lived correction. Bitcoin had another climb from $65,000 to $75,000, with another $6 billion minted at the end of this rally on Nov. 6.
Bitcoin posted moderate gains over the next three days, during which Tether minted an additional $6 billion in two batches. This was followed by a sharp rally that pushed Bitcoin to $88,000.
A mint of $6 billion on Nov. 18 marked the beginning of Bitcoin’s next leg up, kicking off a rally that pushed the price to just under $99,000 by Nov. 22. In the same stretch, Tether issued another $9 billion in three separate batches. Another mint of $7 billion on Nov. 23 came just before a brief pullback and Bitcoin’s ultimate surge to $106,000 by Dec. 17.
The timing of USDT mints in late 2024 suggests that issuance can serve as a near-term signal of rising demand — but not necessarily as a pure leading indicator.
With USDT now over a decade old since its 2014 launch, its role in Bitcoin price cycles is dwindling, Ki Young Ju, CEO of blockchain analytics firm CryptoQuant, told Cointelegraph.
“Most of the new liquidity entering the Bitcoin market today is coming through MSTR and [exchange-traded funds], primarily via Coinbase’s BTC/USD market or [over-the-counter] desks. Stablecoins are no longer an important signal for determining Bitcoin’s market direction,” Ju said.
“In fact, the total amount of stablecoins held on exchanges is lower than it was during the 2021 bull market,” he added.
Total stablecoins held on exchanges today is lower than it was during the 2021 bull market. Source: CryptoQuant
In many of the observed cases, the largest mints occurred during or after price momentum was already underway.
For example, the $6-billion mint on Nov. 6 came after Bitcoin had already rebounded from $65,000 to $75,000. Similarly, more than $15 billion in USDT was minted between Nov. 18 and 23 amid rapid upward price action rather than ahead of it.
That said, there are several notable exceptions. A pair of mints totaling $7 billion around Nov. 13 and the $7 billion minted on Nov. 23 appeared shortly before fresh rallies, indicating that in some cases, large issuances may anticipate or help catalyze further price movement.
“These days, most newly issued stablecoin liquidity is either for global trade settlements or represents profits from Bitcoin’s rise being converted into liquid form, which increases market cap — not necessarily fresh inflows,” Ju said.
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USDT burns and lag behind Bitcoin corrections
Conversely, periods of sustained USDT burns — when USDT is removed from circulation — often occur during or shortly…
cointelegraph.com