Bitcoin (BTC) starts the last week of September with a retest of $26,000 as a stubborn range persists.An unimpressive weekly close sets the tone for t
Bitcoin (BTC) starts the last week of September with a retest of $26,000 as a stubborn range persists.
An unimpressive weekly close sets the tone for the culmination of a traditionally lackluster month for BTC price action.
Having shaken off a hectic week of macroeconomic events, Bitcoin has plenty more to weather before September is over. United States gross domestic product figures for Q2 will come on Sept. 28, with Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data following the day after.
The highlight, however, will likely come in the form of a speech from Jerome Powell, chair of the Federal Reserve, a week after it opted to hold U.S. interest rates at current elevated levels.
Inflation remains a major talking point into Q4, and Bitcoin still lacks direction as week after week goes by without a clear upward or downward trend emerging.
Will this week be different? The countdown to the monthly close is on.
BTC price weekly chart prints “death cross”
BTC price performance, while steady over the weekend, deteriorated after the Sep. 24 weekly close.
BTC/USD took a trip to $26,000, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows, with this level still managing to hold as support at the time of writing prior to the week’s first Wall Street open.
Eyeing the state of play on exchanges, commentators noted liquidations occurring for both long and short BTC positions.
Both sides almost liquidated.
Nice long squeeze. Bulls trapped. https://t.co/FxUGbwxx3v pic.twitter.com/us8Cxno5PZ
— IT Tech (@IT_Tech_PL) September 24, 2023
Bitcoin is still near two-week lows, bolstering arguments from already cautious analysts over what might come next.
Popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital continued to track what he suggested could be a repeat of previous BTC price behavior. 2023, he argued at the weekend, might end up looking just like 2019 — its counterpart from last cycle.
“Bitcoin could follow the same bearish fractal from 2019 to drop lower in this Macro Range,” he suggested alongside a comparative chart.
In subsequent debate on X, Rekt Capital put the potential fractal downside target at near $20,000.
Keith Alan, co-founder of monitoring resource Material Indicators, meanwhile spied a so-called “death cross” on weekly timeframes.
Here, the falling 21-week simple moving average (SMA) has crossed under its rising 200-week counterpart — a phenomenon which highlights the comparative weakness of recent price action.
Uploading a chart showing a downside warning from Material Indicators’ proprietary price tools, Alan added that this would be invalidated should BTC/USD reclaim $26,500.
A #DeathCross + a new Trend Precognition ⬇️ Signal on the #btc Weekly Chart (Pump > $26.5 to invalidate).
Any questions? pic.twitter.com/aBa64Be56D
— Keith Alan (@KAProductions) September 25, 2023
A more optimistic take came from trader and analyst Credible Crypto, who believed a rebalancing of market composition would result in a return to $27,000.
“We had clear, visible and confirmed accumulation occurring in the green square,” he commented on a chart, building on analysis from the weekend.
“This latest push down looks to be manipulation to the downside (red square) prior to expansion to the upside. 27k incoming imo.”
September 2023 clings to “green” status
Despite the overnight weakness, Bitcoin remains in the black for September overall — a rare feat by historical standards.
The latest live data from monitoring resource CoinGlass puts BTC/USD up 0.8% month-to-date.
While this seems modest compared to the volatility normally seen with the pair, September usually forms a bearish prelude to more substantial upside traditionally seen in the month of October.
2023 is thus still on track to be Bitcoin’s strongest September performance for seven years.
October, which is informally known as “Uptober” among hodlers thanks to coinciding with BTC and broader crypto gains, is meanwhile already a talking point.
Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm Eight, suggested the start of next month could provide the fuel for the total crypto market cap to break above the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA).
“Total market capitalization for Crypto fights the resistance here of the 200-Week EMA,” he told X subscribers late last week.
“I think it’s just a matter of time until we flip above it. Probably 1-2 weeks if Ethereum ETF Futures could be approved and Uptober begins.”
Bitcoin’s 200-week EMA continues to act as support, and currently sits at $25,700.
PCE data, Fed’s Powell headline macro week
If last week’s macroeconomic events were not enough to induce significant volatility across Bitcoin and crypto markets, perhaps the month-end selection will…
cointelegraph.com
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