War, CPI and $28K BTC price — 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

Bitcoin (BTC) starts the second week of October still up 4% month-to-date as geopolitical instability provides a snap market focus.

BTC price action continues to hold steady at $28,000 — what will happen next as markets react to the war in Israel?

In what could end up a volatile period for risk assets, Bitcoin has so far yet to offer a significant reaction, spending the weekend in a tight corridor.

That could soon change, however, as the Wall Street open comes amid a hike in both oil and gold, along with U.S. dollar strength.

Macroeconomic triggers are also far from lacking, with the coming days due to see the September print of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI). In the wake of surprise employment data last week, the readout holds additional importance for the Federal Reserve.

Beneath the hood, meanwhile, on-chain metrics are pointing to interesting times for Bitcoin, as BTC/USD trades in a key range, which has formed a watershed area since 2021.

Cointelegraph takes a look at these factors and more in the weekly rundown of potential BTC price triggers to come.

Bitcoin “illiquid and choppy” as weekly close passes

The weekend saw market participants fully focused on the abrupt breakout of war in Israel, and as markets themselves reopen, change is already afoot.

For Bitcoin, however, the ongoing events have yet to deliver a palpable chain reaction, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows.

BTC price action has centered on $28,000 since Friday, and that level remains key as traders hope for a resistance/support flip.

“Nothing special going on this weekend,” Daan Crypto Trades summarized on X into the weekly close.

“Would expect volumes to pick up a bit soon but ultimately we should be hovering around this price region until futures open back up tonight.”

A further post noted that Bitcoin had yet to decisively break through the 200-week moving average (MA), which sits at $28,176 at the time of writing.

Analyzing the 4-hour chart, popular trader Skew described BTC price behavior as “illiquid and choppy.”

$BTC 4H
these wicks really say how illiquid & choppy price action is pic.twitter.com/Qq13GsuqfB

— Skew Δ (@52kskew) October 9, 2023

“Bitcoin’s bullish flag is still in play — but it is taking too long to play out,” fellow trader Jelle continued, zooming out to monthly performance.

“October is generally the most bullish month of the year, thus I’m still expecting this one to break out upwards.”

War returns to crypto observers’ radar

When it comes to price triggers, however, the unfolding Israel conflict has Bitcoin and crypto market participants anticipating the bulk of volatility is still to come.

With the memory of Bitcoin’s reaction to the war in Ukraine in February 2022 still in the background, Jelle was cautious over what might happen to BTC/USD next.

“All I do know is that the Ukraine war triggered an 8% down candle, that was erased within a day,” part of the day’s X commentary explained.

Mike McGlone, senior macro strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, meanwhile described Bitcoin as now showing a “risk-off tilt” among traders.

“My bias is the downward sloping 100-week moving average is likely to win the battle vs. the up trending 50-week. Spiking #crudeoil is a liquidity pressure factor,” he wrote on Oct. 8.

At the time, the 100-week and 50-week MAs were at $28,938 and $24,890, respectively.

McGlone touched on an unfolding macro asset phenomenon, with gold up 1% on the day and Brent crude up 3.25% ahead of the Wall Street open.

“Markets reacting quite defensively,” Skew added, noting renewed strength in the U.S. dollar index (DXY), itself gaining 0.4%.

Last week, DXY hit its highest levels since late 2022.

CPI leads “huge week for inflation”

In the U.S., attention is focusing on the week’s macroeconomic data prints, these headlined by the September CPI report.

After jobs data last week showed that employment levels remained resilient despite anti-inflation moves from the Fed, Bitcoin briefly recoiled — fears were that officials would enact another interest rate hike, further pressuring liquidity.

While BTC/USD rebounded, those fears remain.

“A good CPI data on Thursday could provide a chance to break out from this range, whereas a hot CPI would push us back into the range lows with the premise that the FED might be forced to hike 25bsp,” part of weekend analysis from popular commentator CrypNuevo read.

According to data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, markets are increasingly betting on rates staying at current levels on decision day, set for Nov. 1.

Beyond CPI, this week will see the Producer Price Index (PPI) release, along with more jobless claims and a total of 12 Fed speakers deliver…