In early August, sources leaked word that officials with the United State Department of Justice were considering fraud charges aimed at Binance, the w
In early August, sources leaked word that officials with the United State Department of Justice were considering fraud charges aimed at Binance, the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange. However, they indicated, officials are worried that it could cause a run on the market akin to the November 2022 collapse of FTX.
Those concerns have not deterred the Securities and Exchange Commission or the Commodity Futures Trading Commission from levying their own charges against Binance, which in part accused the exchange and its founder, Changpeng “CZ” Zhao, of allowing Americans to use products they are prohibited from accessing and of manipulating trading volume with a market-maker called Sigma Chain that Zhao “owned and controlled.”
To put the numbers in perspective, at the time of writing, Binance had facilitated $7 billion in trading volume over the preceding 24-hour period. Coinbase facilitated a relatively paltry $970 million, while KuCoin — another well-known exchange — fell short of $350 million.
With markets in flux and lingering questions over whether central banks will pull off a “soft landing” for the global economy in the months ahead, it’s fair to wonder what the implications might be if law enforcement joins regulators in targeting Binance. For feedback, we asked a number of Cointelegraph staffers for their thoughts — and how they plan to handle their own investments if the Justice Department does file charges against Binance or its executives.
Cointelegraph: How do you think the market will respond if the DOJ issues charges related to Binance? Are you going to be buying or selling when that happens? And where do you think the price of Bitcoin will stand on Dec. 31?
Joe Hall, reporter: Bitcoin will likely drop if the Justice Department issues charges related to Binance, and the broader crypto industry might faceplant. But the need for sound, decentralized, censorship-resistant money is global: Bitcoin buyers in Africa, Europe and Latin America will gobble up the dip. Personally, I’m going to keep asking myself (and my Bitcoin node): Will there only ever be 21 million Bitcoin? If the answer is “Yes,” then I will continue to earn, save and spend in Bitcoin. (Spoiler alert, the answer is “Yes.”)
BTC Price on Dec. 31? $38,000. Dr. Adam Back, Paolo Ardoino (chief technology officer of Bitfinex/Tether) and Giacomo Zucco (a Bitcoin consultant) have all told me they believe Bitcoin will be above $35,000 by the end of this year. They’re pretty smart Bitcoin people. How high the price could go before the halving is anyone’s guess, but it does feel (for the umpteenth time) that sentiment toward Bitcoin is slowly warming up.
Tom Blackstone, reporter: In my experience, news like this has very little impact on the market long-term, for three reasons. First, charges don’t mean much unless there is a conviction, and trials can take a very long time. Second, if one exchange goes down, another one will pop up to replace it. Third, crypto is too useful for consumers to give up, and interest in it is growing organically as more people learn about it. So, I think it will continue to be a good investment regardless of the news cycle.
BTC Price on Dec. 31? On a chart, Bitcoin has support at $15,300 and resistance at $41,000, so I would expect its price to be in that range by the end of the year.
Related: Demand is driving the price of Bitcoin to $130K
Jonathan DeYoung, senior copy editor: My investment thesis is to hold on for dear life and hope that the market continues to grow over the medium to long term. I rarely, if ever, even look at what I’ve saved. I try to forget it exists, and crypto pretty much never enters my brain when I think about financial planning for the near term. This offers me a level of psychological insolation from market-moving events, such as might be the case if Binance were charged.
BTC Price on Dec. 31? Now that I have no particular thoughts on.
Cassio Gusson, reporter for Cointelegraph Brasil: It will be a big blow to the market. There will likely be an asset drain from Binance, and this will greatly damage the exchange’s image globally. This will affect the price of Bitcoin and the entire system of assets on BNB Chain. There will likely be a new crash similar to what happened with Terra, with several investors withdrawing assets in protocol staking on BNB Chain, withdrawing assets from Binance and in exchange-related products such as PancakeSwap.
I’ll be selling on the day it happens. I’ll be buying in the next 48 hours after the event has already reached its bottom and buyers resume trading.
BTC Price on Dec. 31? I don’t think it will be more than $40,000. There are studies that show that the impact of Bitcoin’s halving is decreasing. We could reach $40,000 if the Securities and Exchange Commission approves a Bitcoin spot ETF. Otherwise, a maximum of $35,000.
Related: Bitcoin ETFs: Even worse for crypto than central exchanges
Kristina Lucrezia Corner,…
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