Bitcoin (BTC) enters the last week of March in uncertain territory as a strong weekly close still keeps $30,000 out of reach.The largest cryptocurrenc
Bitcoin (BTC) enters the last week of March in uncertain territory as a strong weekly close still keeps $30,000 out of reach.
The largest cryptocurrency has sealed seven days of practically flat performance despite some volatility in between as the market seeks fresh direction. Where could it go next?
In what was a week of more surprises from the macro economy, BTC/USD spent much time reacting to decisions from the United States Federal Reserve and associated commentary.
Next up, however, is a period of relative calm, followed by a key monthly close, which analysis says could see the start of a new bullish trend.
Bitcoin is currently up 20% for March so far, meaning that the coming days will decide the strength of the ongoing recovery from multi-year lows.
Cointelegraph takes a look at five key topics to bear in mind during the final week of a what has been a volatile month.
Countdown to Bitcoin price monthly close
Bitcoin managed to close out the week with a modest flourish, returning to the $28,000 mark, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows.
This meant that BTC/USD stayed practically unmoved versus the weekend prior, delivering some impressive stability despite the periods of volatility, which occurred in the intervening period.
Nonetheless, concerns are brewing that the market may struggle to preserve current levels.
In fresh analysis on March 27, popular Twitter account IncomeSharks flagged on-balance volume (OBV) as a telltale sign of decreasing momentum.
“Just hard to ignore the weak OBV at resistance, price at resistance, and the lack of demand at these prices,” it commented alongside a chart.
“If we drop we get a new wave of buying demand that should push us higher. Only way we go up from here is big news in the markets or another squeeze.”
Trader and analyst Rekt Capital agreed that a retracement would be “healthy” for Bitcoin should it enter.
“If BTC continues to struggle to break beyond $28,700 then a healthy dip may need to occur to gain fresh buyer interest at lower levels,” he tweeted on the day.
“Technicals are showing some short-term weakness & it could be that a catalyst will soon appear to play that weakness out.”
Over the weekend, Rekt Capital had flagged that price point as a key area to watch, while remaining upbeat about the longer-term trend.
BTC/USD, he forecast, will “confirm” a breakout from its bear market at the end of March, provided the monthly close preserves the 200-week moving average (WMA) as support.
The 200WMA currently stands at around $25,500, giving bulls room for a modest dip.
#BTC has broken back above the 200-week MA
However, it hasn’t technically been reclaimed as support
If $BTC were to soon dip, price could try to retest the 200-week MA as support
Successful retest there would fully confirm the breakout beyond the 200-week MA#Crypto #Bitcoin https://t.co/RqdxRuAkwd pic.twitter.com/zdYjOHxwCE
— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) March 26, 2023
Similarly level-headed, but on shorter timeframes, is trader Crypto Tony, who on the day eyed $27,700 and $26,600 to hold.
“We have yet to lose the EQ at $27,700 on a 4 hour time frame, so the doomsday tweets can take a break,” he summarized, referring to the point in a range where buy and sell pressure is balanced.
“The range low at $26,600 is what we need to lose to begin a short hedge position for myself.”
PCE data in focus as SVB gets bought out
Unlike last week, the final days of March are not slated to deliver surprises from the U.S. macroeconomic realm.
That is not to say that a curveball will not appear, but in terms of macro data releases, the rest of the month is comparatively quiet.
Key macro economic events for the week ahead:
️ Thursday 30th (UTC)
12:30 — US Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
12:30 — US Unemployment Claims• GDP expected at the same 2.7%
• Unemployment Claims expected at 196K from 191K️ Friday 31st (UTC)
12:30 — US PCE Core…— Lambda (@lambdamarkets1) March 26, 2023
The one key exception could be the March 31 release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index (PCE), which holds key insights into U.S. inflation trends.
“US PCE inflation numbers are due this week – last month this data caused a volatile move lower in risk,” markets commentator Tedtalksmacro commented.
“However, this month core PCE is expected to cool to +4.4% YoY down from +4.7% previous. That would be risk positive.”
Should Bitcoin react to PCE data which comes in outside expectations, the results could make for a volatile weekend, coming just a day before the monthly close.
Any new developments in the ongoing banking crisis would add uncertainty into the mix, and the risk is there — contagion remains in Europe, while the defunct Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) found a buyer overnight.
JUST IN: First Citizens agrees to buy…
cointelegraph.com