By: BCM Funding Staff
By: BCM Funding Staff
February’s retail gross sales losses had been extra extreme than anticipated—with sectors following a well-recognized sample—however have nonetheless managed to develop year-over-year. Manufacturing additionally felt the consequences of final month’s freezing temperatures and underperformed expectations by over 3%. Housing costs in the meantime proceed to soar in a pattern that appears primed to proceed as provide runs worryingly brief. A $1,400 stimulus verify might not make a lot of a dent in a down cost, however is it doing a lot good in a financial savings account? The 10-year UST yield hit a recent 13-month excessive forward of the Fed choice—which Financial institution of America referred to as “some of the crucial occasions for the Fed in a while”—this week, inching nearer to the two% yield many fund managers consider may spark a 10%+ correction in equities. And what lies forward on the worldwide stage as commodities, EM exports, and new waves of Covid all climb increased?
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1. February’s deep freeze, along with the Covid hangover, precipitated U.S. retail gross sales to say no by 3% final month. Right here’s the breakout:
Supply: The Day by day Shot, from 3/17/21
2. However general, retail gross sales are nonetheless increased than in 2020. The Covid issue reveals up once more in clothes and restaurant/bar gross sales:
Supply: The Day by day Shot, from 3/17/21
3. The identical climate took its toll on manufacturing as effectively:
Supply: The Day by day Shot, from 3/17/21
4. New houses, after a decade of lackluster housing begins/completions, has precipitated the U.S. to be woefully wanting housing inventory.
Supply: Census Bureau, from 3/17/21
5. Stimu-less? 53-79% of recipients don’t plan to spend their new checks.
Supply: BofA World Analysis, from 3/16/21
6. A survey of fund managers confirms “Rising yields don’t matter till they do.” With the 10-year UST yield round 1.65%, we’d see who is correct quickly sufficient…
Supply: BofA World Enjoyable Supervisor Survey, from 3/17/21
7. To this point in March, China’s inventory market can be taking a look at a potential management change:
Supply: S&P Dow Jones Indices, as of three/12/21
8. Boosted by rising commodity costs, EM exports are hovering:
Supply: The Day by day Shot, from 3/16/21
9. But EM inventory costs aren’t following swimsuit. Alternative forward?
Supply: The Day by day Shot, from 3/16/21
10. Europeans, who usually are method behind in vaccinations, are getting hit with a 3rd wave of Covid. Will this delay their restoration additional? It actually gained’t assist journey…
Supply: The Day by day Shot, from 3/16/21
11. Brazil can be in a fierce battle with Covid as their second wave reveals no indicators of waning:
Supply: JHU CSSE , from 3/16/21
12. Whereas higher than anticipated, their economic system felt the consequences:
Supply: The Day by day Shot, from 3/16/21
This text was contributed by Beaumont Capital Administration Funding Staff, a participant within the ETF Strategist Channel.
For extra insights like these, go to BCM’s weblog at weblog.investbcm.com.
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