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Ignacio Teson•Tuesday, December 31, 2024•1 min read
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Brent crude oil dropped around 3.2% compared to its closing price in 2023 of $77.04, while WTI remained nearly stable.
Oil prices ended 2024 with a second consecutive annual loss on Tuesday, due to weak post-pandemic demand, economic challenges in China, and the fact that non-OPEC producers kept the market well-supplied.
Brent crude rose by $0.65, or 0.88%, to $74.64 per barrel, while U.S. light crude WTI gained $0.73, or 1.03%, to $71.72 per barrel.
USOIL
Brent fell approximately 3.2% from its 2023 closing price of $77.04, while WTI remained practically unchanged compared to last year’s final price.
In September, UKOIL futures closed below $70 per barrel for the first time since December 2021, and overall, prices in 2024 stayed below the highs of recent years as the post-pandemic demand rebound and the price shocks from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 began to fade.
The highest closing price of 2024 was $91.17 per barrel, marking the lowest annual high since 2021.
Oil Price Outlook and Projections
Oil prices are expected to remain limited near $70 per barrel in 2025, as weak demand from China and rising supply are expected to overshadow OPEC+ efforts to stabilize the market, according to a Reuters monthly survey on Tuesday.
Weakened demand from China forced both the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the International Energy Agency (IEA) to revise down their oil demand growth forecasts for 2024 and 2025.
Oil Market Surplus
As non-OPEC supply also increases, the IEA forecasts that the oil market will enter a surplus in 2025, despite OPEC and its allies delaying their plan to start increasing production until April 2025.
U.S. oil production rose by 259,000 barrels per day (bpd) to a record 13.46 million bpd in October, while demand surged to its highest levels since the pandemic, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).
The EIA predicts that production will reach another record of 13.52 million bpd next year.
Ignacio Teson
Economist and Financial Analyst
Ignacio Teson is an Economist and Financial Analyst. He has more than 7 years of experience in emerging markets. He worked as an analyst and market operator at brokerage firms in Argentina and Spain.
www.fxleaders.com